November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's what happens when you're named after a vegetable. 

 

#MElennials

 

I doubt he'll ever start for Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

I doubt he'll ever start for Oregon.

 

 

Probably for the best.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All of these freezes were fake cold, I'm not sure Mary's Peak has had a freeze yet.

 

Looks like I am at 8 freezes here. Not bad compared to other years I've been up here. In 2016 I didn't even have a freeze until my first snow on December 4th. 

[BLI snowman]

Dry, but not that unusual. PDX has had 23 Novembers with less than 4".

 

If no rain fell the rest of the month it would be unusual. 

 

Some rain will fall, so it will wind up being somewhat less unusual.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would also mention the GEM agrees with the GFS for the system next Tuesday. The GFS long range was pretty decent for starting to really build a mountain snow pack. Snow level even gets down to about 2000-2500' a couple times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will probably get enough rain to start deviating from 1976/77. 2004-05 still on the table though. 

[Front Ranger]

Well that ain’t happening this go around, lol.

 

FWIW, there was +WPO in Feb 2014 and Nov 2014 as well. So obviously, -WPO isn’t a prerequisite. And things could always go the 1968/69 route if the -NAO is steroidal.

 

Nah, both featured -WPO leading up to and during the PNW cold intrusions. Feb 2014 Arctic outbreak had massive -WPO.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[Front Ranger]

We will probably get enough rain to start deviating from 1976/77. 2004-05 still on the table though. 

 

1976 had raging +PDO at this point. So at least the Pacific seems to be in a different state than that year.

[Phil]

All of these freezes were fake cold, I'm not sure Mary's Peak has had a freeze yet.

Hey, cold is cold. By those standards, most of our cold is also “fake cold”. I’d estimate at least 70% of subfreezing nights here rely on radiational cooling/nocturnal inversions.

 

Very hard to advect real cold in here with the mountains..downsloping ruins this place. We’d be just like OH/W-PA if it weren’t for the mountains.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey, cold is cold. By those standards, most of our cold is also “fake cold”. I’d estimate at least 70% of subfreezing nights here rely on radiational cooling/nocturnal inversions.

 

Very hard to advect real cold in here with the mountains..downsloping ruins this place. We’d be like Ohio or western Pennsylvania if it weren’t for the mountains.

 

Kind of a problem we have here...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Kind of a problem we have here...

 

The ol' 55F pool of water.

[Phil]

Nah, both featured -WPO leading up to and during the PNW cold intrusions. Feb 2014 Arctic outbreak had massive -WPO.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Hmm..let me check the EOF for the WPO. That calculation looks pretty bizarre to me, but maybe I’m thinking of a different teleconnection.

[TT-SEA]

60 degrees here and in North Bend now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ol' 55F pool of water.

 

And the mountains which block the cold from the east. 

[Deweydog]

I think it's supposed to rain tomorrow. Thursday and Friday too.

 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60 degrees here and in North Bend now.

 

Corvallis hit 24 this morning!

[Front Ranger]

Hmm..let me check the EOF for the WPO. That calculation looks pretty bizarre to me, but maybe I’m thinking of a different teleconnection.

 

It makes complete sense if you think about it. WPO is essentially west-based Alaskan/Aleutian blocking, EPO is east based. The sweet spot for most of the West during the winter (depending on block size/orientation) is right in the middle, meaning both indexes are negative.

[Phil]

Nah, both featured -WPO leading up to and during the PNW cold intrusions. Feb 2014 Arctic outbreak had massive -WPO.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

I apologize, you’re right. I was thinking of the West-Pacific pattern, which is similar (seems to be a variant of the same system).

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

 

Disregard my earlier comment on the WPO not going negative this time. I’m not sure about that.

[TT-SEA]

Corvallis hit 24 this morning!

 

Dropped to 59 in the last few minutes!     45 with gunky haze at SEA... not an issue out here.  

 

Bone chilling 49 for a low out here this morning.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be the last dry stretch until May!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Could be the last dry stretch until May!

 

Let's f*cking hope so

[Phil]

Seems the EPO/WPO aren’t standardized teleconnections used by by CPC anymore. They’ve been superceded by more structurally-specific EOFs.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml

[TT-SEA]

Could be the last dry stretch until May!

 

You sure want to give us some trolling material huh?    I am saving this post.  

 

I bet this winter will have a 2004-05 and 2014-15 type feel with lots of dry breaks and periods of offshore flow (including cold and dry events). Along with distinct wet periods like the one coming up over the next week. 

[BLI snowman]

I think it's supposed to rain tomorrow. Thursday and Friday too.

 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

 

Tomorrow is November 21.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like I am at 8 freezes here. Not bad compared to other years I've been up here. In 2016 I didn't even have a freeze until my first snow on December 4th. 

 

Miscounted and I actually have 8 freezes as well. Pretty sure I made a post about the 7th one last week.

[Phil]

Kind of a problem we have here...

Interesting to imagine what the PNW climate would be like without the Cascades. Probably much colder/snowier.

 

If we still had the Rockies but a gap in the terrain from southern BC into WA/OR, the cold would funnel right in there.

[Front Ranger]

Seems the EPO/WPO aren’t standardized teleconnections used by by CPC anymore. They’ve been superceded by more structurally-specific EOFs.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml

They still show the WPO and EPO forecasts. The EP/NP index there doesn't correlate near as well to the pattern downstream.

[BLI snowman]

Interesting to imagine what the PNW climate would be like without the Cascades. Probably much colder/snowier.

 

If we still had the Rockies but a gap in the terrain from southern BC into WA/OR, the cold would funnel right in there.

 

Hood River kind of gives you an idea. Would be pretty sweet.

[Phil]

They still show the WPO and EPO forecasts. The EP/NP index there doesn't correlate near as well to the pattern downstream.

True, but I guess they’re trying to account for changes to the modes of variability that don’t perfectly fit with the EPO/WPO structure(s).

 

Really, the only structurally coherent teleconnections that have stood the test of time are the PNA and NAO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You sure want to give us some trolling material huh?    I am saving this post.  

 

I bet this winter will have a 2004-05 and 2014-15 type feel with lots of dry breaks and periods of offshore flow (including cold and dry events). Along with distinct wet periods like the one coming up over the next week. 

 

This is bulletin board material for you isn't it!

[Front Ranger]

True, but I guess they’re trying to account for changes to the modes of variability that don’t perfectly fit with the EPO/WPO structure(s).

 

Really, the only structurally coherent teleconnections that have stood the test of time are the PNA and NAO.

I don't know. Going back to 1950, -WPO/-EPO usually means cold for the West. That hasn't changed.

[TT-SEA]

This is bulletin board material for you isn't it!

 

Just how I think its going to play out... feels like a blocky winter overall.    Low solar definitely plays a role in that.   I am sure you agree and were obviously trolling.

 

And I have no problem pointing out when the opposite is true and there is no blocking... like 2015-16 when there was almost no offshore flow here at all.  

[TT-SEA]

Back to 60... rounded up.   

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

[MossMan]

Was just up in Skykomish. Was 38 when I left Stanwood at 9am, was windy and 58 in Gold Bar at 10am, and 39 at Skykomish at 10:30am. Another example of how Skykomish is protected from the downsloping effects!

[TT-SEA]

Was just up in Skykomish. Was 38 when I left Stanwood at 9am, was windy and 58 in Gold Bar at 10am, and 39 at Skykomish at 10:30am. Another example of how Skykomish is protected from the downsloping effects!

Gold Bar is geographically similar to North Bend.

[Front Ranger]

Sort of ironic..the East-Asian pattern has been perfect for Arctic air in the PNW for several years now, but the Arctic/NATL pattern has been crappy. So there’s been plenty of -EPO but it’s beeb poorly structured.

 

Now the Arctic/NATL pattern looks great, but the East-Asian cell has gone crappy. Lol.

 

The "-NAO = -PNA awesomeness for the PNW" theory takes another hit. 

[Front Ranger]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

Looks like more of the same.

[Bryant]

Let's all just get together and have a couple beers... I think I owe Fred 1 or 2 for not banning me from here yet

[TT-SEA]

Let's all just get together and have a couple beers... I think I owe Fred 1 or 2 for not banning me from here yet

 

 

I like beer!