November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

They look a notch milder.

Notch, click, bit or a touch?

[Front Ranger]

Euro for this Saturday four days ago.

 

 

 

Euro now for Saturday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

VERY interested to see the 12z ensembles.

 

Kinda warm

[Front Ranger]

No s**t, but you guys respond like this will FINALLY get him to fly right when it comes to regional context.

 

Thank you! We can all sleep better under our blanket of warm below average 850mb temperatures.

 

Sounds like someone has gotten sucked into scolding the people who were sucked into scolding the troll.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. SLE picked up 0.55" between 4a-10a.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like someone has gotten sucked into scolding the people who were sucked into scolding the troll.

Just food for thought. Carry on my wayward son. There'll be peace when you are done.

[Jesse]

Ironically it comes up on a wet morning. Go out and enjoy it!

It’s glorious!

[Front Ranger]

Offshore ridge looks a notch better on the Euro compared to the GFS, and it's a touch colder as well.

[TT-SEA]

Tim wet himself over SEA's rainfall totals from the recent storm and literally made 10 posts about it.

 

As with most things, he brought it on himself.

 

Brought on what?   

 

We have no water issues or drought concerns up here... from Olympia northward through all of southern BC.    Its all good.

 

SW WA and Oregon has significant drought concerns.

 

Its very different down there... IT IS WHAT IT IS.     

 

Lumping all us all together does not work.   Take it up Mother Nature.     

[Jbolin]

Euro for this Saturday four days ago.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

Euro now for Saturday.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png

Lacking moisture

[TT-SEA]

SEA was 31 inches above normal for the 2014-17 period.

And currently 2 inches below normal for 2018.

Time to panic... serious situation!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next week could be chilly.

[TT-SEA]

Euro for this Saturday four days ago.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

Euro now for Saturday.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png

 

 

Deeper troughing is a good thing.  

[Front Ranger]

Lacking moisture

 

Yep. But colder and much improved pattern overall.

 

The blocks just keep on coming. Looks like the EPO is gonna tank yet again in early December.

[Front Ranger]

Brought on what?   

 

We have no water issues or drought concerns up here... from Olympia northward through all of southern BC.    Its all good.

 

SW WA and Oregon has significant drought concerns.

 

Its very different down there... IT IS WHAT IT IS.     

 

Lumping all us all together does not work.   Take it up Mother Nature.     

 

The reminders that it's been a regionally dry multi-season period. Not dust bowl dry for everyone, but certainly dry. It is what it is!

[Timmy Supercell]

Don't think any snow actually fell. Just ended up with a soggy morning. And a deer chewing on more winter apples in the yard. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[jcmcgaffey]

Tim wet himself over SEA's rainfall totals from the recent storm and literally made 10 posts about it.

 

As with most things, he brought it on himself.

I appreciated Tim’s posts today and thought they were very informative. There were probably some ulterial motives with them but nonetheless they were full of good weather information and I enjoyed reading and looking at

[Deweydog]

Yep. But colder and much improved pattern overall.

 

The blocks just keep on coming. Looks like the EPO is gonna tank yet again in early December.

But the WPO????????????

[TT-SEA]

The reminders that it's been a regionally dry multi-season period. Not dust bowl dry for everyone, but certainly dry. It is what it is!

 

 

Devil is the details!   There is a little below normal and then there is serious drought.   Both are technically drier than normal... but so different.

 

SEA is 2 inches below normal for 2018.

PDX is about 8.5 inches below normal.

SLE is about 8.5 inches below normal.

EUG is almost 16 inches below normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't think any snow actually fell. Just ended up with a soggy morning. And a deer chewing on more winter apples in the yard. Nothing out of the ordinary.

 

I think you are going to get some snow later this week. 

 

Looks like NWS is saying 2-4" Friday night. Then chilly early next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens.

[Front Ranger]

I appreciated Tim’s posts today and thought they were very informative. There were probably some ulterial motives with them but nonetheless they were full of good weather information and I enjoyed reading and looking at

 

I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today).

 

Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they led the way with rain this time. 

 

By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now?

[Front Ranger]

But the WPO????????????

 

 

 

Not coincidentally, no Arctic outbreak modeled for the PNW. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I think you are going to get some snow later this week. 

 

Looks like NWS is saying 2-4" Friday night. Then chilly early next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens.

 

Yeah noticed even wunderground is now mentioning a decent amount of activity from this point through first week of Dec.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I left the house this morning I was at 6" even for the month. Very dry November, but not in record territory anymore. 

[TT-SEA]

I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today).

 

Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they lead the way with rain this time. 

 

By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now?

 

I was happy to see the unusual disparity this year between SEA and the areas to the north and east of SEA start to get erased.  

 

That is all.  

[TT-SEA]

When I left the house this morning I was at 6" even for the month. Very dry November, but not in record territory anymore. 

 

 

Over 10 inches here now.   A slightly drier than normal November.     But October was well above normal so it balances out.   The entire year has balanced out here to a little wetter than normal.  

[Front Ranger]

I was happy to see the unusual disparity this year between SEA and the areas to the north and east of SEA start to get erased.  

 

That is all.  

 

#wetdreamcometrue

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR still running a -3.7F departure on the month. Average high/low so far this month is 48/12. 

[stuffradio]

This is the wettest time of the year folks. We'll be getting less precip on average after this week.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is very dry up here for this weekend and next week... its gets wetter as you go south.  

 

Here is total precip for the next week beginning tomorrow morning (to exclude rain that has already fallen today).

 

 

 

And total snow through next Thursday:

 

[Front Ranger]

Over 10 inches here now.   A slightly drier than normal November.     But October was well above normal so it balances out.   The entire year has balanced out here to a little wetter than normal.  

 

Your location outperforms everyone else, yet again.

 

[Front Ranger]

This is the wettest time of the year folks. We'll be getting less precip on average after this week.

 

This is true for BC/WA, but not for OR. Peak precip is December there, and January is about the same as November.

[TT-SEA]

Your location outperforms everyone else, yet again.

 

60dPNormWA.png

 

 

SEA and WFO SEA are very close to normal for October and November as well.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows an east wind each day beginning this weekend and continuing all of next week.    Highs in the mid-40s for most of western WA and OR each day.  

 

Systems split and fall apart as the approach... lots of dry weather and sun.   

[FroYoBro]

12Z ECMWF shows an east wind each day beginning this weekend and continuing all of next week.    Highs in the mid-40s for most of western WA and OR each day.  

 

Systems split and fall apart as the approach... lots of dry weather and sun.   

Sounds nice. I bet Portland gets pretty chilly. 

 

Have to love a good ol' offshore flow/inversion pattern in early December! 

[Deweydog]

Suzy Chapstick weather! Ugh.

[MossMan]

Not terrible... Sounds like I will most likely stay in the 30’s next week.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

958 AM PST Wed Nov 28 2018

 

A more consolidated system will drive southeast off B.C.

coastline, reaching Western Washington on Friday. Models all show

this system but the track of the vertically stacked low is still

somewhat in question. Most of the latest runs take the low

southeast just off the Washington coast. Some models bring more

rain into the interior than other models, mainly due to subtle

differences with the exact track. Assuming the GFS/ECMWF are

correct, some light rain should reach much of the interior. The

flow will become northerly as the low shifts to our south which

should cool the air mass to some degree. It still appears cold air

will be mostly bottled up and will probably not line up with

moisture over the area which will be tapering off Saturday. Mercer

 

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Overall, confidence is low on

the general pattern and details of individual systems beyond

Thursday. The models seemed to agree that we will enter a colder

and drier phase. However, they are not entirely in agreement in

regards to the systems in the northern branch. The current

forecast indicates a drying trend this weekend, with Monday and

Tuesday being dry and chilly days. Highs will probably struggle to

reach 40 degrees in some lowland places. It looks like there will

be fairly widespread lows in the 20s on the lowlands Sunday and

Monday nights.

[Timmy Supercell]

November 2018 high/low/mean as of yesterday.. (KLMT)

 

High: 53.8 (+7.8)

Low: 20.7 (-4.4)

Mean: 37.3 (+1.8)

 

These last few days won't really do much in terms of tipping the scales. It's going to end slightly above average, even though I had kind of a decent cold stretch earlier in the month. The spread from low to high from each day was too great to cool down the overall month.

[jcmcgaffey]

I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today).

 

Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they led the way with rain this time.

 

By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now?

. I’m sure if there really was an issue with the sensor then the professionals would have taken care of it or there is a reason for it. I still thinks it’s odd that all the nearby sensors on Wundermap continuously read more rain. Even yesterday when that area got more rain than areas to the north the nearby sensors still had more than SEA.

[El_Nina]

I'm excited to see the rain guage when I get home.