11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow things are looking up again!

[Tom]

RPM model looks like the Ukie/NAM/ICON...my gut feeling is that the GEFS will come back north, esp if stronger solutions are within the members. The Euro run will be interesting to see unfold.

[jaster220]

GEFS trends over the last 6 runs...you can see the abrupt shift south, then the last few runs are showing more consistency but also some weakening...

 

Increased qpf across SMI tho, and yes, a weaker more ENE track normally does that. Still a lot of moving pieces and tbd if the more S and E runs come back as we get closer to kick-off

 

12z NAM...KC to Chi warning snows....@ Clinton, your call from a couple days ago may starting to look good buddy...

 

NAM was a nice looking eye-candy map. Nice to at least be in the game for a bit, even if it ends up back north like typ Nov climo

[East Dubzz]

RGEM looks pretty similar to the CMC through 48 hours.

[Tom]

12z GEFS def north and juiced....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112312/078/qpf_acc.conus.png

[Tom]

12z GEFS snow mean...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112312/084/snod.conus.png

[Tom]

12z GEFS individual members came in a bit better bundled...

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

@ GEFS - That's a lot of qpf -dang!  But looking at the snow map most its coming as RN south of GR. Going to need some more south bumps to get back into the good stuff.

[East Dubzz]

12z GEFS def north and juiced....

 

Could you post the 06z for comparison?

[Stormhunter87]

WPC is bringing that low way south. Not a fan of that

[Sciascia]

12z GEFS def north and juiced....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112312/078/qpf_acc.conus.png

That looks like a mess of rain & a couple inches of snow for ORD.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

Could you post the 06z for comparison?

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112306/090/qpf_acc.conus.png

[East Dubzz]

Thanks, Tom. Definitely a move north there.

[Money]

Interesting trends so far outside of the nam

[Tom]

12z Ukie...a different look

[East Dubzz]

Euro up and running. Come back home, Euro...

[East Dubzz]

Euro up and running. Come back home, Euro...

Through 48, I want to say it’ll stay pretty similar to the 00z run, but I could be wrong.

[Grizzcoat]

Agree. Gut call is it stays the same.

[jcwxguy]

Slightly north of 00z for snow shield,

[East Dubzz]

Slightly north of 00z for snow shield,

Interesting. It’s really hard to tell what happened given the time intervals of 24 hours. It’s obviously further south than the GFS, but it’s almost impossible to compare to the 00z based on what’s available on tropical tidbits.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah it's pretty similar to me. Still pounds KC.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Hawkeye]

Well, that's a bummer from the euro.

[Money]

Euro vs gfs/gem

[james1976]

Now the Euro is the most south. Lol

[jaster220]

As usual what disappoints some, keeps hopes alive for others. Thx Euro

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro gives me a decent amount in Central Nebraska.

[jaster220]

Euro vs gfs/gem

 

More like GFS/GEM vs Euro/Ukie/ICON

[gabel23]

Euro gives me a decent amount in Central Nebraska.

Yes it does and then the cut off to the north and east puts me right on the line. I’m hoping the euro takes a jog north tonight, just give me 3-6 and I’m happy. I’m also rooting for the kc people; they deserve a big time snow! I seen Gary’s post this morning shows it’s been over a 1000 days since their last winter storm warning!

[East Dubzz]

That run is eerily similar to the 00z run. Nonetheless, very different solutions between several of the models. I would think we’d start to get a better consensus by tonight’s run, but maybe that’s just me being optimistic.

[jaster220]

More like GFS/GEM vs Euro/Ukie/ICON

 

Oops, forgot 12z NAM

 

[East Dubzz]

So it’s basically the GFS, FV3-GFS, and Canadian are north; Euro, UKMET, & NAM are South. Guess you could add the ICON into that mix, but I don’t really know enough about that model to decide whether or not it should be included in the big group.

 

The southern trend seemed to have come to a halt on that run, at least. Will be interesting to see if one of these groups of models wins out, or if they maybe just meet in the middle.

[Tom]

Oops, forgot 12z NAM

 

20181123 12z NAM snowfall.PNG

NAM/Euro/Ukie/RPM vs GFS/GGEM....Ukie was the first to take the southern solution, then the Euro came on board along with the NAM. Interesting battle to see who wins with this system.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO came a tad north, but its still mostly south. Guess were taking a step in the right direction this morning

[East Dubzz]

NAM/Euro/Ukie/RPM vs GFS/GGEM....Ukie was the first to take the southern solution, then the Euro came on board along with the NAM. Interesting battle to see who wins with this system.

My guess is they find a ground somewhere in the middle, but we will see.

[East Dubzz]

EURO came a tad north, but its still mostly south. Guess were taking a step in the right direction this morning

That’s the way I’m looking at it for now. At least things didn’t continue to trend any further south.

[Tom]

12z EPS nudged north, albeit slightly and still pretty juiced which is an encouraging sign that a strong/dynamic system is still on tap.  Euro Control pretty much the same as the Euro Op in terms of strength and amounts.

[East Dubzz]

18z NAM slightly more north through 36. Let’s see what happens with the next update..