PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Doesn’t Snohomish cash in on snowy convergence zones often? I’m sold. 

Easy access to the main road! And easy yard care! 

Apparently this guy took out 3 power poles in the process of losing his shed lol.  

Edited March 5, 2023 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Well I guess this is a wrap on winter weather possibilities in the lowlands, was a fun ride! 

A week ago I would have bet some money I would have surpassed 10 inches for the season in the midst of all of this cold weather.  Just terrible luck with this round.

It's still conceivable something could happen at some point over the next week.  Good chance this will be it though.  Still a good run of freezing nights coming at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it will be much more clear in about 6 weeks.

It is interesting to note it's an extreme rarity to go from MEI and SOI numbers like we have now this late in the season to a Nino within the same year.

IDK why you so against Ninos. 2018-19 was epic, 2019-20 had a very cold fall and cold February/March. I get it, 2014-16 sucked, but we can score some good events with Ninos too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A period of heavy grapuel now heavy snow falling, everything is flocked again. 

[Tyler Mode]

All this in ten minutes in Battle Ground, complete with a temp drop to 37 and some thunder.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK why you so against Ninos. 2018-19 was epic, 2019-20 had a very cold fall and cold February/March. I get it, 2014-16 sucked, but we can score some good events with Ninos too. 

I just don't like Ninos.  Warm neutral is one of the best bets there is for winter to deliver something fun, and that is highly possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't like Ninos.  Warm neutral is one of the best bets there is for winter to deliver something fun, and that is highly possible.

The last two neutrals I can recall were 2012-13 and 2013-14. Both kind of sucked from a snow perspective, but had some good parts. The cold in January 2013 was actually fairly impressive, and of course the following winter had two great events down here. 

[snow_wizard]

This is probably going to go down as one of the longest runs of sub 50 highs this late in the season, and it's also been weeks since many places have had a low above 40.  Very impressive run.  Looks like another run of freezing mins coming up too.  Just too bad more of us couldn't have done better with snow during all of this.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last two neutrals I can recall were 2012-13 and 2013-14. Both kind of sucked from a snow perspective, but had some good parts. The cold in January 2013 was actually fairly impressive, and of course the following winter had two great events down here. 

13/14 was a great winter for some places.

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK why you so against Ninos. 2018-19 was epic, 2019-20 had a very cold fall and cold February/March. I get it, 2014-16 sucked, but we can score some good events with Ninos too. 

December 2015 was fun too, not a great winter for cold/snow though besides that one subfreezing day and bit of snow in early January here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A week ago I would have bet some money I would have surpassed 10 inches for the season in the midst of all of this cold weather.  Just terrible luck with this round.

It's still conceivable something could happen at some point over the next week.  Good chance this will be it though.  Still a good run of freezing nights coming at least.

I have never had good luck with snow past March 1st in the Pacific Northwest.

When I lived in Portland, I watched Seattle get sticking snow.

When I lived in Seattle or Vancouver, I have watched Portland get it.

But never more than a short-lived slushy dusting IMBY (and that only a few times).

I was hoping this season, being as great is it has been, might be different. But so far, apparently not. Maybe I will get surprised later this month (or, who knows, in April). But I’m not counting on it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is probably going to go down as one of the longest runs of sub 50 highs this late in the season, and it's also been weeks since many places have had a low above 40.  Very impressive run.  Looks like another run of freezing mins coming up too.  Just too bad more of us couldn't have done better with snow during all of this.

It's been incredibly impressive, though February/early March 2019 was more impressive IMO. We didn't have a high above 40 here from February 3-March 10th. That being said we could go two weeks with sub-40 highs, which is a pretty notable stretch, and the lows we had last week were close to records, which we did not see in 2019. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 2015 was fun too, not a great winter for cold/snow though besides that one subfreezing day and bit of snow in early January here.

December 2015 was one of the two white Christmases I have had here in 12 years. November/December 2015 were pretty fun. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 2015 was fun too, not a great winter for cold/snow though besides that one subfreezing day and bit of snow in early January here.

That one sucked IMO.  Nino winters usually have too much gloomy / warmish muck.  My absolute least favorite weather.  Warmish neutral often has a lot of drier weather with a high chance of notable cold and snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 32.0, dumping snow, at least half an inch new. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have never had good luck with snow past March 1st in the Pacific Northwest.

When I lived in Portland, I watched Seattle get sticking snow.

When I lived in Seattle or Vancouver, I have watched Portland get it.

But never more than a short-lived slushy dusting IMBY (and that only a few times).

I was hoping this season, being as great is it has been, might be different. But so far, apparently not. Maybe I will get surprised later this month (or, who knows, in April). But I’m not counting on it.

Very true.  No matter what March snow isn't nearly as enjoyable as snow during the main part of the winter anyway.  More just a big deal for the stats and watching some flakes fall than anything.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That one sucked IMO.  Nino winters usually have too much gloomy / warmish muck.  My absolute least favorite weather.  Warmish neutral often has a lot of drier weather with a high chance of notable cold and snow.

It was a huge soaker, wettest month of record at PDX which I enjoyed too. Also some cold in late November 2015.

I think 2003/2004 was a warmish neutral, that was pretty great

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's been incredibly impressive, though February/early March 2019 was more impressive IMO. We didn't have a high above 40 here from February 3-March 10th. That being said we could go two weeks with sub-40 highs, which is a pretty notable stretch, and the lows we had last week were close to records, which we did not see in 2019. 

I am certainly pleased we managed to get some clear and calm nights after the Arctic air was delivered.  That is always good for bonus points snow or no snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

It was a huge soaker, wettest month of record at PDX which I enjoyed too. Also some cold in late November 2015.

I think 2003/2004 was a warmish neutral, that was pretty great

Yes...2003-04 is exactly the type of winter I was talking about.  1979-80 is another really famous one.  Justin and I talked about warmish neutral several years back and out of all the ENSO states it does seem to be one of the best for getting something good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am certainly pleased we managed to get some clear and calm nights after the Arctic air was delivered.  That is always good for bonus points snow or no snow.

The low of 12 we had last week was the coldest February temp I have recorded. Just beat out the 13 we had in 2014. Been a great run in February. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably one of the most extreme examples of localized cold air damming I've even seen on Northern Hood Canal today.  One small area up in there has had highs in the 32 to 34 range near sea level today.  Totally insane when you consider the high insolation this time of year.  Even colder than it is along the east slopes of the Cascades today.

I've noticed that. That area has been running 1-2 degrees colder than me today. Currently 35 here. They got 4 inches of snow and I ended up with a few also.

[MossMan]

Found my old camcorders while digging through some boxes in the attic and decided to fire them up! December 2008! Oh and in the same box I found a Russ bobble head or flat head thing that is unopened…Must be worth a fortune now!

Edited March 5, 2023 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The low of 12 we had last week was the coldest February temp I have recorded. Just beat out the 13 we had in 2014. Been a great run in February. 

12 in Feb is exceptional.  I had 13 in 2019, but the in 5 in 1989 was pretty special.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

12 in Feb is exceptional.  I had 13 in 2019, but the in 5 in 1989 was pretty special.

The coldest we got in 2019 was 18 degrees. But the past decade has seen a 13 in 2014, 14 in 2018, 18 in 2019, 15 in 2022, and 12 this year. Pretty amazing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. This escalated quickly! Took this vid a while to upload. It’s continued to snow at this rate the past 30 mins. 

[snow_wizard]

It sure is weird how we not only have the terrible January rut we've been in, but we also have great Febs being caused by SSW events after a terrible January.  I can't figure out what it's going to take to get January going again.  We've had some pretty major events that could have shaken things up, but didn't.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The coldest we got in 2019 was 18 degrees. But the past decade has seen a 13 in 2014, 14 in 2018, 18 in 2019, 15 in 2022, and 12 this year. Pretty amazing. 

Even going back to 2011.

2011 = 15

2014 = 18

2018 = 19

2019 = 13

2021 = 23

2022 = 22

2023 = 20

 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sure is weird how we not only have the terrible January rut we've been in, but we also have great Febs being caused by SSW events after a terrible January.  I can't figure out what it's going to take to get January going again.  We've had some pretty major events that could have shaken things up, but didn't.

February was crazy in both worlds for me, Snow in the first half, then tornadoes in the 2nd!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. This escalated quickly! Took this vid a while to upload. It’s continued to snow at this rate the past 30 mins. 

IMG_2373.MOV

You live in the mountains.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You live in the mountains.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You live in the mountains.  

The start of the mountains. Ended up with 1 1/2" with this shower. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The start of the mountains. Ended up with 1 1/2" with this shower. 

what is your season total?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

what is your season total?

This puts it at 53.5". 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My season total is 46 but just a few miles away west of me they are around 60 for the season!! the events in late November they got a bunch more snow than i did and almost every event this year they have.  This has been a very strange snow year for the canal, it has been more localized than normal. There has been 2 times this year it just wasn't cold enough at my place but just 3 miles west it snowed 4 inches and that's even at a lower elevation, Very unusual.  If i'm at 46 lake cushman should be around 120 which is just insane for 1000ft.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This puts it at 53.5". 

46 for me, last night was a huge bust and we only needed 1-2 degrees colder. After seeing how much snow was on the mountain behind my house i know now it wasn't a precip issue.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If last night would of worked out i would of been knocking on the door of my record of 56 inches. 

I still think there will be more lowland snow this winter but probable only above 4-500ft.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 hours ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How's it compare to your property in the interior? Doesn't seem like you've been out there much.

It has been hard the last couple months to get away to go up there because of work related problems and employee issues. Trust me i need to get up there bad. Its good for my brain.

[snow_wizard]

I've been playing around with this incredible weather raking site, that some people use on here and found that the Feb 20 to Mar 3 average for SEA is the 5th coldest in the period of record.  Quite impressive!

For those interested in checking out the site here it is.

xmACIS2 (rcc-acis.org)

A bit of a learning curve on how to use it.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has been hard the last couple months to get away to go up there because of work related problems and employee issues. Trust me i need to get up there bad. Its good for my brain.

I would love to be able to live at a place like where your cabin is.  Just no beating that invigorating continental flavor.  The scenery is a huge plus as well!

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

46 for me, last night was a huge bust and we only needed 1-2 degrees colder. After seeing how much snow was on the mountain behind my house i know now it wasn't a precip issue.

Yup...the air mass was just a notch too warm last night.  Very disappointing, but my hopes weren't that high given the marginal numbers.