PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[MWG]

I love snow and all but this winter have been too long! Felt like it started back in November. At the end of the day I'm still a Caribbean lady and I need my sun lol 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I checked my elevation the other day and it's a little higher than I thought. I checked a long time ago so maybe my new phone app is more accurate.  I thought i was 640ft but I'm 665. 25ft is 25ft lol. I actually found a map that shows the hill right on my property at 671ft because it's the high spot in this little area besides green mountain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, MWG said:

I love snow and all but this winter have been too long! Felt like it started back in November. At the end of the day I'm still a Caribbean lady and I need my sun lol 

Winter does normally start in November here but it's been sustained chilly. I've burnt more firewood this season than any other to date. It's our only source of heat so I keep good records of that.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Or late February. We’ve only managed a total of 1.3” so far this March, and I don’t see a ton more in the next week, but yeah, late season when the events are more onshore based, I think the elevation plays a bigger role, and the troughing is more full latitude. I guess last April is another good example, we had 18”, I don’t think you had much. 

Yeah… a lot of PNW skiers will say March is the best month to ski around here. Even as the lowlands are warming up the mountains and upper levels are slow to follow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This had been impressive cold spell here. I've had snow on the ground for about 2 weeks.  My seasonal total is around 46 inches

[TT-SEA]

Offshore flow is eroding the mid-level deck of clouds out here now... getting fairly bright.    Up to 44 in North Bend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah… a lot of PNW skiers will say March is the best month to ski around here. Even as the lowlands are warming up the mountains and upper levels are slow to follow.

Yep, the best snowmobiling is in March and April. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Offshore is eroding the mid-level deck of clouds out here now... getting fairly bright.    Up to 44 in North Bend.

Still just 34 here with light snow and rain mix. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 here with some snow/grapuel mix. Echoes are increasing, looks like there could be a lot of snow in the air this afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still just 34 here with light snow and rain mix. 

You can see the clouds thinning out this way as the deformation band gets stretched.    Filtered sun here now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder what has caused our weather systems to be so pathetically weak this fall/winter season. Maybe a change in enso will give us a consolidated strong jet. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is probably the biggest disparity in snow for our locations since March 2012. 

It is a 2012 redux after all.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS focuses the wettest anomalies a little south of western WA     Sierras get pounded... I heard they need more snow.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS focuses the wettest anomalies a little south of western WA     Sierras get pounded... I heard they need more snow.  

Pls no more drought

[snow_wizard]

On the ENSO front, I'm seeing no indication of a big WWB anytime soon.  A week from now Tahiti still has higher pressure than Darwin.  At this point 30 day and 90 day SOI are still over +10.  To have that this deep into the season alone says a Nino isn't likely from an historical perspective.  Not saying it's impossible, but neutral seems like a better call.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS focuses the wettest anomalies a little south of western WA     Sierras get pounded... I heard they need more snow.  

I think it may be our turn to have a dry year.  From my experience it's not uncommon to go from long periods of GOA blocking to a Western Ridge late in the season like this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we have enso neutral next winter then I’m all in on a major arctic blast. 

[MikeInEverett]

No snow here last night.. it’s over. Time for sun!!

[T-Town]

Trying to clear out here. 

[MWG]

Temps went up to 41F now back down to 39F and partly cloudy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Winter is over for the lowlands. We need a source of cold air and there are no signs of it on the models. It was a great Winter thanks to the 11 1/2" snow storm on Wed 2/22. I ended up with a total of 12 1/2", 1" of sleet, and numerous east wind event/storms. Now it's time to shift gears looking for cold convection hail, t-storms, and funnel clouds. An AR or Wind Storm is still possible too.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You can see the clouds thinning out this way as the deformation band gets stretched.    Filtered sun here now.

Just came over the pass about an hour ago and you could see entire mountain sides getting their loose snow cover getting blown off with east wind gusts 

[ShawniganLake]

Had some wet snow at times in Shawnigan Lake today.  I’m not home but sounds like we got about an inch or so. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we have enso neutral next winter then I’m all in on a major arctic blast. 

Weak nino coming. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Light rain and 37.0˚F. Was mixed precip earlier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Weak nino coming. 

Not an issue. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

YEEE HAAA!!!!! holy crap look how much snow there is on green mountain. Keep in mind this is right behind my house and takes 5 minutes to get to this point.  Makes me sick property isn't for sale there. I would be in heaven owning some land right there.  This is about 1450ft elevation.  There was about 12 inches new and 17 total. I couldn't make it any further ao there was probably about 4 more inches on top.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

27 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

YEEE HAAA!!!!! holy crap look how much snow there is on green mountain. Keep in mind this is right behind my house and takes 5 minutes to get to this point.  Makes me sick property isn't for sale there. I would be in heaven owning some land right there.  This is about 1450ft elevation.  There was about 12 inches new and 17 total. I couldn't make it any further ao there was probably about 4 more inches on top.

How's it compare to your property in the interior? Doesn't seem like you've been out there much.

[MossMan]

Well I guess this is a wrap on winter weather possibilities in the lowlands, was a fun ride! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely dumping now with a fresh dusting… 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I guess this is a wrap on winter weather possibilities in the lowlands, was a fun ride! 

Unless mid-April decides to surprise us! 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolutely dumping now with a fresh dusting… 

How much do you have on the ground now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SW Oregons coastal mountains are

getting hammered. Such rugged country. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How much do you have on the ground now?

Probably around 15”, more in spots, less in others. Even though we have had some snow the past few days it is melting from the peak, which was 21”. I looked back at December 2021

and it looks like our peak depth was “only” 18” with that one, so this did end up surpassing it. 

[HuskyMaestro]

Doesn’t Snohomish cash in on snowy convergence zones often? I’m sold. 

[GHweatherChris]

Big flakes mixing in again, temp was 45 30 minutes ago, down to 36.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we have enso neutral next winter then I’m all in on a major arctic blast. 

never know when a 68-69 repeat might make an appearance

[westcoastexpat]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

On the ENSO front, I'm seeing no indication of a big WWB anytime soon.  A week from now Tahiti still has higher pressure than Darwin.  At this point 30 day and 90 day SOI are still over +10.  To have that this deep into the season alone says a Nino isn't likely from an historical perspective.  Not saying it's impossible, but neutral seems like a better call.

Odds are currently 65% for Nino, 30% for neutral - so it definitely could be neutral but weak Nino very much on the table

[snow_wizard]

Probably one of the most extreme examples of localized cold air damming I've even seen on Northern Hood Canal today.  One small area up in there has had highs in the 32 to 34 range near sea level today.  Totally insane when you consider the high insolation this time of year.  Even colder than it is along the east slopes of the Cascades today.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Odds are currently 65% for Nino, 30% for neutral - so it definitely could be neutral but weak Nino very much on the table

I think it will be much more clear in about 6 weeks.

It is interesting to note it's an extreme rarity to go from MEI and SOI numbers like we have now this late in the season to a Nino within the same year.