January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

One thing that is inevitable is that we will see winter duds here in the PNW. It is interesting that 1968-69 and 1972-73 were Ninos and they delivered so much to our region. But even as recently as December 2009 we saw some good stuff in a Nino winter. 

 

I did a little more research on the elusive 1868-69 winter recently and found a mention in the Oregonian that the only snow all winter in Portland was an hour of non-sticking flurries in late January. I believe that was a Nino as well.

 

It turns out that goose-egg Ninos go way back even into the tale end of the Little Ice Age.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I did a little more research on the elusive 1868-69 winter recently and found a mention in the Oregonian that the only snow all winter in Portland was an hour of non-sticking flurries in late January. I believe that was a Nino as well.

 

It turns out that goose-egg Ninos go way back even into the tale end of the Little Ice Age.

These types of duds feel like they are happening much closer together now.

[Requiem]

Well then, NAM trended much stronger with winds.

[Phil]

[BLI snowman]

These types of duds feel like they are happening much closer together now.

 

That's true, at least on this scale.

 

But even in the beloved "cold phase" era we had dud winter after dud winter in the PNW lowlands. 1952-53, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1969-70. Quite a little 3 year cycle there for awhile. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These types of duds feel like they are happening much closer together now.

 

Yeah maybe...If this winter does turn into a total suckfest. But 02-03 and 04-05 were pretty close together. 

 

I don't know that I would consider 2015-16 a total dud. It was definitely not good, but that period in Late December/early January probably elevates it above 2002-03, 91-92, etc...

[Requiem]

Not going to lose hope on a possible storm. If it seems I'm interpreting things right, the baroclinic zone allows for a perfect track into the Central/southern coast, and the models (especially the GFS) seem to overdo the splitting (which new runs of the NAM are not doing). Also, it's RI'ing as we speak, and moving very fast as it veers up the coast. Also, the 12Z run is somewhat strange compared to the 00Z runs anyway.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah maybe...If this winter does turn into a total suckfest. But 02-03 and 04-05 were pretty close together.

 

I don't know that I would consider 2015-16 a total dud. It was definitely not good, but that period in Late December/early January probably elevates it above 2002-03, 91-92, etc...

Regionally you’re correct. We had nothing down here that year except just 1 sub-freezing high.

 

Outside of 13-14 and 16-17 there has been virtually nothing in all the other year since 08-09. That’s a bit unusual as we usually see flakes in the air more often than we have.

[BLI snowman]

I wonder how much of that was a consequence of the timing of the downwelling westerly shear (+QBO) in all of those second year events. Which (in +ENSO) can aid a prolonged wave-1 forcing structure that indirectly aids in the delivery of cool, stormy weather to NW North America.

 

As for 2019, we’re already downwelling the westerly shear to 50mb and below as we speak..and we will be full blown westerly by summer with background forcing well-established across the EPAC/WHEM. Haven’t seen that in quite awhile.

 

Sort of 1997-ish, but that was a single-year super niño centered in the east-Pacific. There have been very few legit multiyear niños in recent years, and none that have initiated with downwelling westerly shear during a deep solar minimum. ‍♀

 

I think it was probably little more than local happenstance amidst a small sample size. Every year is a little unique, and as Andrew pointed out even quite a few of our Nino winters will wind up being decent by our standards in the lowlands.

[Phil]

And it’s not like a flip to -ENSO is a distinct possibility anytime soon. You generally don’t see slow propagating WWB activity like this under waning +ENSO regimes. This one is a behemoth (and it’s occurring at the climatologically favored timeframe for the initiation of east-based El Niño events that terminate +PMM/+PDO regimes in subsequent years, like 1997/98). As the ITCZ/z-cell system is farther south at this time of year, so will the center of WWB activity. I’m feeling a warmer SE equatorial pacific this summer/fall (less South American cold tongue).

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

This type of ERW-stabilized wind stress forcing on the ocean is ideal for triggering downwelling OKWs because it stays put for awhile, propagating slowly enough to more closely match one of the ocean’s resonance frequencies.

 

As +QBO continues to take over during the spring and the tropical tropopause continues to lower/warm, while it can enhance convection poleward from the equator, it will also weaken the MJO, potentially allowing for more efficient low frequency coupling with the ocean state. Hence a coherent El Niño is a distinct possibility in 2019/20.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just the occasional sprinkle here. We are gonna get fuckked this fire season.

[TT-SEA]

Just the occasional sprinkle here. We are gonna get fuckked this fire season.

 

 

January rain has nothing to do with the fire season.   

 

What happens from April-August is much more important.  

 

In other words... you could get 30 inches of rain in January and still be "fuckked" in the summer.    Or get no rain in January and still have no fire problems in the summer.    

[Phil]

January rain has nothing to do with the fire season.

 

What happens from April-August is much more important.

 

In other words... you could get 30 inches of rain in January and still be "fuckked" in the summer. Or get no rain in January and still have no fire problems in the summer.

Which is why cloudy, misty summers are ideal.

[MossMan]

I think so... my sons want me to sell our boat and get something better.

I was close to buying a boat last winter...but then we decided to move which put the thought of a new or newer boat to bed. The 1986 Bayliner must last at least 2 more years! But I still like to go to the boat show and keep up with the latest in technology!

[TT-SEA]

Which is why cloudy, misty summers are ideal.

Don't be stupid. There is a nice balance between a cold and gloomy summer and an inferno. Always the extremes with you!

 

I prefer 75-85 and mostly sunny with a good rain event each week.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don't be stupid. There is a nice balance between a cold and gloomy summer and an inferno. Always the extremes with you!

 

I prefer 75-85 and mostly sunny with a good rain event each week.

 

Not here the last 6 yrs 

[MossMan]

Nice day! Windy and dry.

[Omegaraptor]

Not here the last 6 yrs 

 

A normal summer would be the coolest summer in 6 years.

 

I think this summer will be just like the last 5 years, leaning towards like 2017 and 2018 - hot and smoky.

[TT-SEA]

Not here the last 6 yrs 

 

The balance in the middle still exists... you just have not experienced it down there.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I did a little more research on the elusive 1868-69 winter recently and found a mention in the Oregonian that the only snow all winter in Portland was an hour of non-sticking flurries in late January. I believe that was a Nino as well.

 

It turns out that goose-egg Ninos go way back even into the tale end of the Little Ice Age.

 

Another 8-9 winter that failed to deliver the goods too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Regionally you’re correct. We had nothing down here that year except just 1 sub-freezing high.

 

Outside of 13-14 and 16-17 there has been virtually nothing in all the other year since 08-09. That’s a bit unusual as we usually see flakes in the air more often than we have.

 

I do not mean to be a know it all, but this statement is factually incorrect. 

 

It snowed in Eugene in November of 2010. I attended a Ducks football game the day after Thanksgiving and there were piles of snow behind the benches left over from plowing the field I assume. My brother also lived here and said it snowed a little over 1". I would also imagine it snowed a little in February 2011.

 

March 2012...

 

I already mentioned EUG recorded 2.0" of snow last February. Also recorded "T" amounts on 3-4 other days that month. 

 

Also I believe it snowed in Eugene on 12/18/2012. 

[Requiem]

GFS looks a liiitle better for wind. I still don't buy the amount of splitting though.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GFS looks a liiitle better for wind. I still don't buy the amount of splitting though.

I do.  There has already been a lot of splitting systems this year, and it is an El Nino winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3KM NAM shows a heavy band of precip turning to snow in the south valley late Sunday night.

 

 

[El_Nina]

How so. I have made statements previously that were similar.

 

You know

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6" at EUG

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/2019010418/portland/hires_snow_portland_61.png

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3KM NAM shows a heavy band of precip turning to snow in the south valley late Sunday night.

 

 

 

Oh my fuckk

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-3" of snow up here Sunday night. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting tweets from Dr. Ryan Maeu about the models

 

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago

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Global weather model rankings for the last year (5 day forecasts)

ECMWF
UKMET
NOAA GFS
CANADIAN

Recent GFS poor skill is surprising -- unsure of reason.

 

 

And another tweet where he responds to questions:

 

 

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago

More

The designated upgrade to GFS called FV3 has so far shown little skill gains. Thus, another year has gone by with NOAA's global weather model skill languishing.

Check back in 2020 to see how FV3 performed ... "upgrade" coming in Feb (?) with gov't shutdown.

 

 

 

1. Brian Etherton‏ @briane678 3h3 hours ago

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1. Replying to @RyanMaue
2. Given your data, the result seems to be: once NOAA switches from the GFS core to the FV3 core, they will still be in 3rd place, behind ECMWF and UKMO. True?
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  1. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

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1. Replying to @briane678
2. Based upon the last 180-days, the skill scores are the same. Meanwhile, ECMWF has gotten better, so GFS falls further behind by default.
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  1. Brian Etherton‏ @briane678 1h1 hour ago

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1. Replying to @RyanMaue
2. ...in addition to falling further behind ECMWF, and staying behind UKMO, seems we're quite close to falling behind Canada?
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  1. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

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1. Replying to @briane678
2. Canada has improved significantly over past 6 months since their last major upgrade. GFS skill debate is interesting but having an antiquated ensemble system like GEFS is more concerning.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS is going to issue a High Wind Watch for all of NW Oregon from the Foothills westward...

[Farmboy]

I have a week in Oklahoma coming up the end of this month. Given their bipolar climate it will either be sunny and 65 or snowing. Then a little over a week in Arizona in March. CANNOT wait for that warm sunshine.

I'm in Arizona right now and I can tell you even though it's only 61, in the sun it's real nice. Supposed to be 68 Tuesday...

[Requiem]

NWS is going to issue a High Wind Watch for all of NW Oregon from the Foothills westward...

 

Doubt it, the GFS isn't biting yet. But that low is a lot less "splitty:" so far than it anticipated, and MOS output shows decent support. 

 

On the flipside, NAM (50-60), EURO (40-55), GEM, and ICON, all show a possible wind event.

[ShawniganLake]

Oh my fuckk

You could be the big winner this winter.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Doubt it, the GFS isn't biting yet. But that low is a lot less "splitty:" so far than it anticipated, and MOS output shows decent support. 

 

On the flipside, NAM (50-60), EURO (40-55), GEM, and ICON, all show a possible wind event.

They are.  Read their AFD.  Scroll down to Portland's AFD

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html

[ShawniganLake]

GFS looks a liiitle better for wind. I still don't buy the amount of splitting though.

Is this a wishcast?

[Requiem]

They are.  Read their AFD.  Scroll down to Portland's AFD

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html

 

Oh, they actually are? I thought it was just a prediction /:

 

We'll see, at least things are trending stronger from this morning's sad runs.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Toasty 55 up in herre.

[Requiem]

Well then.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=high%20wind%20watch

[Requiem]

Honestly I'm waiting for Rob's thoughts, this is a weird storm. GFS doesn't like it, EURO is mixed, NAM and others love it, as does the WRF-GFS.

[MossMan]

Feels like a lovely late April/early May day outside today. Sun is bright, warm breeze blowing...if we cannot have snow we might as well have some sun!