January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Redemption. Looking forward to Euro.

 

This could indeed be redemption.  I was going out of my mind seeing such a lame winter in such a deep solar minimum.

[TT-SEA]

This is going to unfold with short notice.

 

I am certain that snow and cold are coming... in very early February.

 

 

I lost faith... but should have just stuck with my original prediction from 2 weeks ago.   

[snow_wizard]

Half of the members on the Canadian ensemble are good and that includes the control model.

[Blizzard777]

Very excited about the prospects coming up!

[snow_wizard]

Reinforcing cold shot on the FV3 just after day 10.

[Jesse]

I lost faith... but should have just stuck with my original prediction from 2 weeks ago.

Yup, too bad. Doesn’t count now.

[Blizzard777]

Currently 39* with a low of 33* Fed Way

[TT-SEA]

Yup, too bad. Doesn’t count now.

 

 

Oh well.   

[Jesse]

Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter.

 

I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile....I have a cold foggy day going here.  Nice to have it feeling like winter while it's still January.

 

On another note...it will be super rare if we have a good to great February after such a totally lame Nov - Jan, but it can and has happened.

[snow_wizard]

Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter.

 

I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño.

 

A really good ECMWF run would put me over the 50% mark.

[Jesse]

Meanwhile....I have a cold foggy day going here. Nice to have it feeling like winter while it's still January.

 

On another note...it will be super rare if we have a good to great February after such a totally lame Nov - Jan, but it can and has happened.

Yeah, basically what I have been thinking too. Can’t think of any modern examples, really.

[TT-SEA]

A really good ECMWF run would put me over the 50% mark.

 

 

I feel like we are at 80-90% already with the solid 00Z EPS run last night.  

[kokaneekidz]

Nothwesterly flow with a short jaunt over the ocean and then back inland is actually far better than a strait northerly shot since it guarantees moisture will be picked up allowing precip to happen. Far to often with a strait northerly blow you don't get the lift and that cancels out the only fun part of the cold equation. THE SNOW. so I am thrilled to see this pattern, looks to be a convergence snow jackpot for parts of Puget Sound. Probably will be two of them as the Straight of Georgia will provide for a northern one as well for Skagit County too. Thanks Mother Nature for salvaging this busted winter. ************* Think snow

That's a cascade dumpage.

[snow_wizard]

Significant snowfall on round two on the FV3 as well.  Good things happen with 150 blocks.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, basically what I have been thinking too. Can’t think of any modern examples, really.

 

Especially for a long lasting event like this is shown to be.  1886 - 87 is one that comes to mind.  I'll have to check what the ENSO was on that.  1995 was nothing like what the models are showing here.  The weakness of this El Nino and the fact it's already dissipating could play a role, and of course we should have had some action early in the winter given the context.

[snow_wizard]

Holy sheit!  Round three shown on the FV3!

 

Looks to be the snowiest of them all.

[Esquimalt]

Nothwesterly flow with a short jaunt over the ocean and then back inland is actually far better than a strait northerly shot since it guarantees moisture will be picked up allowing precip to happen. Far to often with a strait northerly blow you don't get the lift and that cancels out the only fun part of the cold equation. THE SNOW. so I am thrilled to see this pattern, looks to be a convergence snow jackpot for parts of Puget Sound. Probably will be two of them as the Straight of Georgia will provide for a northern one as well for Skagit County too. Thanks Mother Nature for salvaging this busted winter. ************* Think snow

Yeah I would think that pattern would favour eastern portions of Victoria for some straight effect snowfall.

[Blizzard777]

Not at all sold on anything meaningful yet, but it would be pretty crazy to even get into a moderately cold pattern in early February in a Niño. Not a lot of recent analogs for that sort of thing. 1995 is the only one that comes to mind but that was later, and a pretty quick hitter.

I realize we are technically in warm neutral territory now, but this winter will still go down as a niño.

How can you not have hope in the BALL

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Super Bowl Snowstorm!!! This is gonna be a bigtime regional event if this pans out.

[BLI snowman]

Especially for a long lasting event like this is shown to be.  1886 - 87 is one that comes to mind.  I'll have to check what the ENSO was on that.  1995 was nothing like what the models are showing here.  The weakness of this El Nino and the fact it's already dissipating could play a role, and of course we should have had some action early in the winter given the context.

 

1887 was a fairly strong La Nina. It would be the best example of a terrible NDJ turning into a good winter, but it was dead opposite ENSO and in the midst of perhaps our blockiest stretch of winters on record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nobody say a goddam thing!!!

[snow_wizard]

That FV3 run would be up there in the top 5 for early Feb events in the last 100 years or more.  Really amazing stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Nobody say a goddam thing!!!

 

 

Already told my family!    

[snow_wizard]

1887 was a fairly strong La Nina. It would be the best example of a terrible NDJ turning into a good winter, but it was dead opposite ENSO and in the midst of perhaps our blockiest stretch of winters on record.

 

This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt.  In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb.  The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end.  At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.

[Esquimalt]

This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.

What happened? Slid east?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt. In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb. The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end. At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.

Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event.

 

If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger?

[TT-SEA]

Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event.

 

If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger?

 

 

Probably not until Thursday or Friday.    It will be WAAAAAAAAY later than you want.  

[Farmboy]

This one would be a major upset if it happens no doubt.  In 1987-88 we had a situation that came close to greatness in early Feb.  The local mets were really hyping that, but it fell through in the end.  At that point models weren't nearly as good as they are now of course.

Hopefully the local mets don't jinx this one for you guys by opening their big mouths.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah if that situation happened today the models would probly have not shown as significant of an event.

 

If the models keep showing this, how long til NWS SEA and PDX pulls the trigger?

 

LOL, so far there's been about 24 hours of decent model runs with no concrete agreement even from that. It's going to take another day or two before any mention of a pattern change is even warranted, let alone hyped.

[Bryant]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold air much closer on the euro day 6.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hi.

[TT-SEA]

Don't try to claim credit again, you blew it

 

 

Whatever Bryant.     

[Jesse]

Whatever Bryant.

It is what it is. You were mocking people for seeing good things in the models just over 24 hours ago. Accept and embrace.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[TT-SEA]

No lowland snow on the 12Z ECMWF for next Sunday.     Trending too far offshore now.

 

[Jesse]

LOL, so far there's been about 24 hours of decent model runs with no concrete agreement even from that. It's going to take another day or two before any mention of a pattern change is even warranted, let alone hyped.

I’m still pretty floored to see the ensemble agreement for anything in early February. Looks like it could potentially be a several day period of -PNA as well, as opposed to a quick hitter like one might expect in the context of this winter. Still not quite sure what to make of it.

 

This post doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not the NWS should start issuing warnings ten days in advance, btw. Just some general discussion on how strange it would be to get anything in the window advertised in a winter like this.

[TT-SEA]

It is what it is. You were mocking people for seeing good things in the models just over 24 hours ago. Accept and embrace.

 

 

I don't really care.   

 

I am not pushing anything.   I figured the models would swing to good at the last minute early on and I lost faith as well... but in the end that is what happened.  Whatever.