January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm already on the fence on staying here or going to my cabin. Looks like it will be very cold there if those 850 temps happen. I was there for a strong arctic push a few years ago and watched it go from 35 degrees to minus 5 in a few hrs and that was really neat.

[Perturbed Member]

At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows.

[Timmy]

At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows.

yeah even if it moderates in the upper levels there doesn’t seem to be much to scour out the lower levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At 162 hours the ICON still has PDX at sub 510 thickness, not a quick hitter on all models. The EPS kept the block in a favorable place for quite a while. My gut feeling is the cold will last longer than what the GFS currently shows.

 

It USUALLY does stick around longer than anticipated.

[Esquimalt]

Gfs is trying something around hr 240

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is very close to something pretty good in the mid-range.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How can we pull up November 2010 maps to compare? Sh.t i bet MossMan has them on vhs!!

[FroYoBro]

So are we going to pretend like this setup doesn’t totally suck this morning?

[TT-SEA]

It USUALLY does stick around longer than anticipated.

 

 

The EPS has been insistent on it staying cold for a couple weeks.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS now quite there in the mid-long range, but close. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The EPS has been insistent on it staying cold for a couple weeks.   

Yeah this feels like a week or longer event with a couple chances of snow. Feels more like a old school pattern and not the super dry pushes of arctic air we've had the last few years.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah this feels like a week or longer event with a couple chances of snow. Feels more like a old school pattern and not the super dry pushes of arctic air we've had the last few years.

 

 

Low solar has finally asserted itself.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So are we going to pretend like this setup doesn’t totally suck this morning?

 

You know I'm trying, but its hard to be negative about the 12z runs SO FAR. 

[FroYoBro]

You know I'm trying, but its hard to be negative about the 12z runs SO FAR. 

 

I'm glad because that comment was definitely targeted at you, lol. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really surprised by the GEM and ICON this morning. I expected the GFS would continue to improve, but I expected the other models would start moving more towards it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm glad because that comment was definitely targeted at you, lol. 

 

I know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to wake up to a regional snow map.

 

BTW I haven't said a word to anyone...

[Timmy]

Well, the Andrew model is on board.

[FroYoBro]

I would imagine local weather forecasters are going to start taking the cold a little more seriously by this evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly 850mb temps for PDX are about 2C warmer on the 12z GFS than the 06z. 12z Bottoms out at -9C. 

[Esquimalt]

Interestingly 850mb temps for PDX are about 2C warmer on the 12z GFS than the 06z. 12z Bottoms out at -9C.

Not so here. Ensembles are about 2 degrees cooler.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not so here. Ensembles are about 2 degrees cooler.

 

I'm talking about the operational run. That being said, I thought the 06z was kind of funky, it did not look like a pattern which would produce -11C 850mb temps at PDX. The 500mb and surface patterns were much better on the 12z.

 

For Vancouver BC, the 06z and 12z GFS were pretty much identical in terms of coldest 850mb temps. -13C on the 12z, -14C on the 06z.

[Timmy]

The op is the warm outlier again for pdx, -7.9 op and -9.7 for mean. Many members in the -10 to -12 range too. The op is also the second warmest member for Tuesday.

[ShawniganLake]

It does remind me of November 2010.

Were the days leading up to the 2010 arctic front quite a bit different than this is looking. We had close to a foot of snow on the 19th-20th, which was a day or 2 before the arctic front arrived.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Were the days leading up to the 2010 arctic front quite a bit different than this is looking. We had close to a foot of snow on the 19th-20th, which was a day or 2 before the arctic front arrived.

 

Yeah there was a period of cold onshore flow the days prior to the 2010 event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The op is the warm outlier again for pdx, -7.9 op and -9.7 for mean. Many members in the -10 to -12 range too. The op is also the second warmest member for Tuesday.

 

So far the 12z ensemble appears to be slightly cooler overall. 

[snow maniac]

In this pattern the snow maps will change every run. We will be saying the same thing 24hrs from the event.

Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadow

[HighlandExperience]

How can we pull up November 2010 maps to compare? Sh.t i bet MossMan has them on vhs!!

How much snow did Seattle area get that November?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadow

 

I hear ya. Been much the same in Monmouth, OR. Glad I moved to Springfield which typically sees more snow than EUG somehow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How much snow did Seattle area get that November?

Not sure. few inches in Seattle proper. I had about 5 but also 55mph north winds. That was the strongest outflow in my area since December 1990. The low crossed from ocean shores to Olympia then east. Not a huge snow event but  very dynamic storm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Boy I hope so I’m tired of seeing my location in the the snow shadow

Wayyyy to early to be worried about that detail son.

[Esquimalt]

FV3 looking good still. Showing a potential reload at hour 240

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Fv3 12z shows more snow for sure and no snow shadow.

[TT-SEA]

How much snow did Seattle area get that November?

 

 

We had about a foot here...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Like 3rd or 4th run in a row on the FV-3 that is a step back. This one more significantly so than the others. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Like 3rd or 4th run in a row on the FV-3 that is a step back. This one more significantly so than the others. 

 

Had to make a "negative" post. It would still be good at face value. And keeps the cold around more than some of the other models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like another "polar vortex" drops from the north pole down into Central Canada in the long range on the FV-3.

[Timmy]

I think Tim from early winter hacked Andrew’s account.