January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

So the whole 'absolutely crazy' thing means nothing to you now?? 

 

You flip on snow/cold easier than you flip on the Seahawks. And that's saying something.

 

The cold is coming... but I am not sure about snow.    I was expecting it to improve.    

 

Some places will definitely get snow but I think some places might be left out.  

[Requiem]

That was ridiculously disappointing.

 

The amount of complaining, I mean.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A bit of a north/south gradient on the 00z EURO though. Looking at temps, they are fairly similar to the 12z PDX-south. Seattle-north is colder. Sub-freezing highs early next week.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Some people are either just being trolls or don't know how to properly compare runs.

 

For the Euro, we only have two runs a day. To compare hours side by side, you have to look at the previous one from 24 hours ago. And this Euro run was easily better for every frame through day 8 than the one 24 hours ago.

 

And it gets colder than any frame from the 12z as well.

0z runs are 4PM our time, close to the warmest time of day. 12z is 4AM, close to the coldest time of the day

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's a fact of life, every model accurately depicts actual snowfall, 5 days out all the time.

[Perturbed Member]

Both the FV-3 and EURO trended east with the cold. Hard to be happy about that. 

 

It's over. 

[Requiem]

It's over. 

 

Fork this winter, shut down the forum.

[Front Ranger]

The cold is coming... but I am not sure about snow.    I was expecting it to improve.    

 

Some places will definitely get snow but I think some places might be left out.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO showing 

 

Monday highs

 

BLI: 23

Seattle: 30

Oly: 33

 

Tuesday

 

BLI: 27

Seattle: 31

Oly: 32

 

Wednesday

 

BLI: 37

Sea: 39

OLY: 41

[TT-SEA]

There is no second round or reload on the 00Z ECMWF... so this is total snow for the entire event.   

 

[Deweydog]

It's decent blocking. Just not great.

Tepid, not decent.

 

540dm over Anchorage is solidly in the tepid shade.

[Perturbed Member]

We might get very little snow going into the cold.     Does not look like much for me either.   

 

At least down here this sort of cold onshore flow never really leads to widespread big accumulations. Works MUCH better for anyone on a hill though. You get a few lowland areas that get lucky under some showers and might score a quick inch or two. 

 

The only reliable way PDX can score big widespread snow totals is with a good overrunning event, east winds and a low taking a favorable track out of the south. No PSCZ to save our butts here. I'll worry about those details once we actually have cold air though. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well it was fun while it lasted ... night

[VancouverIslandSouth]

0z WRF:

 

[Deweydog]

Is our coldest February on record already in jeopardy?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly EURO showing NW Oregon cooler than the Puget Sound region on Wednesday with highs only mid-upper 30s PDX-EUG. 

[MossMan]

[El_Nina]

Less than 12z.... I thought Tim said this run was going to be 'absolutely crazy'?!?!?!?

 

Get him!!!!!!

I like how it's showing heavier amounts east of Portland.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There is no second round or reload on the 00Z ECMWF... so this is total snow for the entire event.   

 

Not bad.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly EURO showing NW Oregon cooler than the Puget Sound region on Wednesday with highs only mid-upper 30s PDX-EUG. 

 

 

Sunny up here and cloudy down there that day per the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Watch 6z GFS early tomorrow morning trolling the s**t out of us with 850s -13c to -17c (PDX to Seattle) Lol

 

This is still hands out the best pattern we've seen all Winter. Period. No uncertainties.

[Front Ranger]

Tepid, not decent.

 

540dm over Anchorage is solidly in the tepid shade.

 

It's not always all about Anchorage (or alliteration).

 

Prior to the block merger of the developing NE Pacific high and the Alaskan high, you have fairly strong blocking extending well into the Arctic. And that is what establishes the initial load of cold air to push south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 1989 is probably a pretty good analog for what the EURO is showing. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

0z WRF:

 

Thanks for sharing.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Tepid, not decent.

 

540dm over Anchorage is solidly in the tepid shade.

 

Sub-510dm heights over Vancouver Island in an Arctic airmass is pretty impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny up here and cloudy down there that day per the ECMWF.

 

Minor overrunning event down this way.

[Front Ranger]

Is our coldest February on record already in jeopardy?

 

Pretty incredible how fast expectations escalate, in all seriousness. Bound to lead to disappointment. 

 

Classic...

[Gradient Keeper]

I see a lot of cold east wind on the 00z EURO Day 8+ as the low drifts southwestward offshore and that arctic air holds in place over the Columbia Basin(especially below 4000'). Bank on that.

[Jesse]

Wow, what a lot of pointlessly negative commentary on a run we would have normally been pretty happy with had the expectations not been so high.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next Thursday is very chilly in Western Oregon. High of only 33 at PDX 38 at SLE. Temps go well into the 20s that night too...

[TT-SEA]

Next Thursday is very chilly in Western Oregon. High of only 33 at PDX 38 at SLE. Temps go well into the 20s that night too...

 

All related to where that ULL ends up.   

[Deweydog]

March 1989 is probably a pretty good analog for what the EURO is showing.

Is there an echo in here???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even next Friday is 40/25 at SLE, 39/25 at PDX. 

[Perturbed Member]

Mark said pretty likely we at least see snow in the air and just about guaranteed some snow in the hills. Bullish for Mark 5 days out. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I see a lot of cold east wind on the 00z EURO Day 8+ as the low drifts southwestward offshore and that arctic air holds in place over the Columbia Basin(especially below 4000'). Bank on that.

Once that cold pool gets entrenched in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What a bunch of pussys.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Next Thursday is very chilly in Western Oregon. High of only 33 at PDX 38 at SLE. Temps go well into the 20s that night too...

Nice.

[Jesse]

Once that cold pool gets entrenched in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out.

It gets a lot easier once we move beyond 2/5 or so.

[Deweydog]

Sub-510dm heights over in an Arctic airmass Vancouver Island is pretty impressive.

That’s what makes this pretty impressive. It’s a February 1989 caliber air mass just without a massive, or even decent, -EPO pattern helping to drive it south and west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is there an echo in here???

 

I was validating you.