January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Just trying to bring some balance and tap the brakes on the situation. GFS ensembles not quite as good in the long range. 

 

 

Long range is sort of irrelevant with an arctic blast coming within 5 days.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Just a word of warning...

 

Currently 33 so I’m safe...for now.

LMAO that would so be me....

 

00z ECMWF in 12 minutes

[MossMan]

Just trying to bring some balance and tap the brakes on the situation. GFS ensembles not quite as good in the long range.

Even if we get one day of snow and 24hrs below freezing it will still be 1000% better than anything that has happened so far this season!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty minute differences, really. At least for the mid range.

 

Nexus of the coldest air is definitely north and east though. Block doesn't tilt as much.

[Timmy]

It’s interesting that Andrew is showing maps that don’t look as good and nobody gets on his case but if Tim was doing that people would be going nuts on him...

 

Anyway my grass is currently crunchy! Chilly out!

Except Andrew usually just posts his interpretation of maps rather than the map itself, which you would think would upset more people than someone posting a map.

[Front Ranger]

Im a little worried about the trends of moderating rather quickly after the first shot. GFS, FV3 and GEM all show that tonight.

 

Probably wise to focus on this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range is sort of irrelevant with an arctic blast coming within 5 days.   

 

An arctic blast is something like Feb 89', Dec 90', Dec 13'. Don't see that happening. 

[Deweydog]

Best case kind of reminds me of March 1989.

[TT-SEA]

Best case kind of reminds me of March 1989.

 

Over a foot of snow here with that one... and a 30/17 day.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic blast for PDX is 850s -12c or colder and typically 850s cool from the northeast to southwest(backdoor blast). We can see onshore flow as cold as -10c to -11c in very cold air masses dropping in from the north-northwest.

[snow_wizard]

OMG this thing has some cold air to work with.  Even the oprational GFS show intense cold making it to the Candian border and has improved drastically over the past few runs.  The FV3 is insanely cold.  The 0z GFS ensemble drops the mean to -10 over Seattle now!

[MossMan]

Best case kind of reminds me of March 1989.

I had a foot of snow and school was cancelled!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably wise to focus on this.

 

Still plenty of ensemble spread so it could easily trend better again. The GEM is trending better overall. Overall the trends were positive today, but there are still some warning signs that this is not a lock. I am encouraged, but wary. It is only Tuesday night. I hope I am being overly cautious, but how many times have we been through this over the years? 

[Timmy]

FV3 is pretty snowy too on Monday,

[Front Ranger]

Best case kind of reminds me of March 1989.

 

Probably one of the most legit events that gets most overlooked. Mainly, I imagine, because it had to follow up on the heels of one of the greatest Arctic Blasts/Polar Vortex Invasions ever.

 

Brought a 33/22 day to SEA with 7" of snow. On March 2. Had it happened a month earlier, probably would have been something like 26/15.

[snow_wizard]

Im a little worried about the trends of moderating rather quickly after the first shot. GFS, FV3 and GEM all show that tonight.

 

There's nothing to scour out the cold though.  FWIW the 12z ECMWF suite of models all showed a reload at day 10 or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is still great, but clearly not as great as the 18z run.

 

Hour 144

 

 

And then moderates much quicker. 

 

Hour 210

 

[snow_wizard]

Still plenty of ensemble spread so it could easily trend better again. The GEM is trending better overall. Overall the trends were positive today, but there are still some warning signs that this is not a lock. I am encouraged, but wary. It is only Tuesday night. I hope I am being overly cautious, but how many times have we been through this over the years? 

 

I'm feeling pretty confident for the northern half of WA at this point.  The drastic improvement in the 0z ensemble carries a lot of weight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There's nothing to scour out the cold though. FWIW the 12z ECMWF suite of models all showed a reload at day 10 or so.

Agreed.

[snow_wizard]

FV-3 is still great, but clearly not as great as the 18z run.

 

Hour 144

 

 

And then moderates much quicker. 

 

Hour 210

 

 

As I said there is nothing there to scour out the cold.  Looks cold and dry on both runs after the main event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Comparing the 12z GFS ensembles to the 00z is unbelievable. The long range is about the same if not slightly better on the 00z actually...

[Deweydog]

FV-3 is still great, but clearly not as great as the 18z run.

 

Hour 144

 

 

And then moderates much quicker.

 

Hour 210

 

Nice!

[Gradient Keeper]

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[SilverFallsAndrew]

As I said there is nothing there to scour out the cold.  Looks cold and dry on both runs after the main event.

 

Yeah though day time highs would probably recover pretty well into the 40s. We are on the last gasp of inversion season now. Even high temps in Feb. 89' bounced back pretty quickly in W. Washington. Lows would be solidly cold though you are right. 

[Front Ranger]

I'd like to point out that once again the 18z did not "buck the trend" or do something crazy out of left field. It took measured steps toward the Euro that the 0z then continued.

 

It's fun when Tim is wrong.     

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Do you have any hope that Victoria will see some snow on Sunday night?

 

If it's anything like the models are showing now, it's looking pretty likely we'll see some snow Sunday afternoon/night; hard not to with that amount of instability. Whether it's a fraction of an inch or a dump will come down to the fine details; we probably won't have a clue until it's 24 hours out.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Probably one of the most legit events that gets most overlooked. Mainly, I imagine, because it had to follow up on the heels of one of the greatest Arctic Blasts/Polar Vortex Invasions ever.

 

Brought a 33/22 day to SEA with 7" of snow. On March 2. Had it happened a month earlier, probably would have been something like 26/15.

I was in Bellingham then, and liked the March event more. We had way more snow with that than the big blast. That was just dry, cold, and windy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

An error occurred

 

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Same thing always happens to me since I'm too generous with my likes. I just go unlike posts on previous pages lol.

[El_Nina]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm feeling pretty confident for the northern half of WA at this point. The drastic improvement in the 0z ensemble carries a lot of weight.

8-15 inches will fall over King County. Sunday only 5 days from now.

[MossMan]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

 

Ummm...It is almost Wednesday...

[snow_wizard]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

 

It's 5 days now.

[FrozenBites]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

 

Buckle up.

 

Interestingly. The FV-3 shows sub 492 thickness over Minnesota at hour 210. I'm sure they are thrilled about that.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The Candian is worlds better than the 12z.  I think this might actually hppen!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

 

Welcome friend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sunday is still 7 days away so I'm not gonna get excited yet. Fun dialogues to read today though.

Are u high?