January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Not yet Tim, not yet

 

 

Pretty much a given now.    

[Jesse]

Looking a lot like a glancing blow with most of the cold air sliding east. Still world's better than anything we've seen this winter if it verified. I think it will verify, but probably 850s around -6 to -8C for PDX. I'm feeling positive.

You can think whatever you want to think will happen, but honest model analysis is important. You make it sound as if the models have been trending worse the last 12 hours, when in reality the opposite is the case. You know that too, yet you still got me to waste a couple minutes writing this paragraph.

[umadbro]

The bickering now. Can you imagine this place if the rug gets pulled out like we've all seen way to many times?

 

Would almost make it worth it.

[Farmboy]

Katu.com says "what arctic blast"??

 

https://katu.com/news/local/climatologists-say-warmer-drier-trend-to-last-through-spring-in-pacific-northwest

[Jesse]

Pretty morning. Pink sky over a frosty landscape.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is starting... going to be the coldest GFS run of the season.

[snow maniac]

ECMWF shows a c-zone from Everett eastward in Sunday afternoon... 

 

Dam Olympic rain shadow it’s going to kill my chances of snow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON is solidly on board with the arctic front coming through on Sunday night.  

 

[snow maniac]

It shows about 3-4 inches of snow for my location, I'll take that.

Ugly rainshadow

[TT-SEA]

Ugly rainshadow

 

That is actually a snowshadow.  

[Omegaraptor]

12Z ICON is solidly on board with the arctic front coming through on Sunday night.

 

As long as the Clackamas-Hood River county line is dark blue...

 

Tahoe is getting dumped on!

[Timmy]

12Z GFS is starting... going to be the coldest GFS run of the season.

hope so but it’s warmer so far

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty incredible how far south into Oregon the 504 thickness line stretches on the 12z ICON

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canadian model cooler than last nights run so far.  Particularly north of Vancouver.

[Perturbed Member]

 

Compared to the 06z

 

[Farmboy]

Incoming:

[Jesse]

 

 

That 500mb setup almost reminds me of November 2010 in a way.

[Jesse]

[Timmy]

Tim was right! 522 line into southern Oregon with snow all over western Oregon by 4am monday.

 

Shows about 3” for pdx.

 

These lows coming in from the nw have over performed many times. 2008, 2014 come to mind.

[Jesse]

Where the phuck is Fill?!?!?

[TT-SEA]

hope so but it’s warmer so far

 

The GFS finally figured out the that ECMWF was right.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Full model support. Any further digging it could be a November 2010 repeat.

[Farmboy]

Where the phuck is Fill?!?!?

Last week Fill was all about the Phork for you guys... Lol..

[Blizzard777]

Currently 28*

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS's surrender is now complete. No warm models left.

[Perturbed Member]

[Esquimalt]

This run craps on Victoria due to the northwest flow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

In this pattern the snow maps will change every run. We will be saying the same thing 24hrs from the event.

[TT-SEA]

Full model support. Any further digging it could be a November 2010 repeat.

It does remind me of November 2010.

[ShawniganLake]

This run craps on Victoria due to the northwest flow.

Your best bet would be something like what the ICON is showing

[Esquimalt]

I like the look of the GEM this morning. Overrunning event dumps 6 to 7 inches before the flow turns westerly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM gets very cold like the ICON. With the EURO still to run, it looks like the GFS is still the "warmest" of the model suite. 

 

[Esquimalt]

The GEM gets very cold like the ICON. With the EURO still to run, it looks like the GFS is still the "warmest" of the model suite.

 

It’s starting to look like a quick cold snap which I don’t like though.

[TT-SEA]

It’s starting to look like a quick cold snap which I don’t like though.

 

 

Looks like the Midwest will get to enjoy our arctic blast eventually as well...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s starting to look like a quick cold snap which I don’t like though.

 

Yeah probably. But better than no cold snap. I don't think this is the year to complain. Also long cold snaps in February, at least in NW Oregon are exceedingly rare. February 1989 lasted about a week, February 2014 was 5 days... Without inversions things tend to moderate quickly. Even the arctic air in 2011 was short lived, just surrounded on both ends by some pretty chilly maritime air. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It does remind me of November 2010.

Only difference at this point is the low placement. The depth of cold looks comparable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Midwest will get to enjoy our arctic blast eventually as well...

 

 

Bet they can't wait. 

[Andrew.]

Had a torrential downpour last night above lahaina here on Maui which led to a little flash flood this morning coming across the driveway on the property. Probably 20 feet wide and 3 feet deep. Pretty impressive

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only difference at this point is the low placement. The depth of cold looks comparable.

 

The models are showing the cold air penetrating much further south, but swinging in from the NW like 2010... GEM throws out some fanciful 1989 like numbers for kicks.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I remember 2008 looking like a quick hitter.