January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

[GHweatherChris]

Nighty night...

[Jesse]

Beneath all the arctic excitement there has been a definite wetter trend in the models as well. Glad to see it.

[Gradient Keeper]

MJO over the Maritime Continent once again showing its significance. Best LR tool out there imo

That favors a cold pattern for us? I have some knowledge of the MJO, but it is VERY limited compared to you and Phil. Your analysis of it, how it affects long range patterns is appreciated. 

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutes

[TT-SEA]

It’s interesting that Andrew is showing maps that don’t look as good and nobody gets on his case but if Tim was doing that people would be going nuts on him...

 

 

Bingo.   

[El_Nina]

CA06A03A-C3B6-44AE-9988-C517004C7901.jpeg

 

Is this real life?

Is this just fantasy?

Caught in a landslide no escape from reality.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Bryant]

That favors a cold pattern for us? I have some knowledge of the MJO, but it is VERY limited compared to you and Phil. Your analysis of it, how it affects long range patterns is appreciated.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutes

When the MJO propagates into the EHem, specifically over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, the jet relaxes and allows heights to rise over the Aleutians. Doesn't guarantee a cold and snowy scenario, but it presents the opportunity. Nice thing about the MJO during an El Nino, is that it can and often will override the current background state, giving us some potential in between the split flow.

 

I thought we had a chance at something good about a month ago, and while we had some good model runs, nothing ultimately came together except a couple wet flakes that last all of 30 minutes. I've been watching this time frame for weeks... would love to see us all get some snow

[TT-SEA]

With the consistent EPS as the backdrop... it seems like all the models are just figuring it out at their own pace but all headed to the same point.      

 

 

And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered.     

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

When the MJO propagates into the EHem, specifically over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, the jet relaxes and allows heights to rise over the Aleutians. Nice thing about the MJO during an El Nino, is that it can and often will override the current background state, giving us some potential cold and snow in between the split flow.

 

I thought we had a chance at something good about a month ago, and while we had some good model runs, nothing ultimately came together except a couple wet flakes that last all of 30 minutes. I've been watching this time frame for weeks... would love to see us all get some snow

Ahhh, and this favors the -WPO tanking shutting down the Western PAC jet. I get it. This all sounds very promising for us. Thanks.

 

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[Gradient Keeper]

And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered.     

 

 

 

Looks nice. Does it drop southward next frame? Thanks for posting all the EPS, ECMWF maps. It is appreciated.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

Looks nice. Does it drop southward next frame? Thanks for posting all the EPS, ECMWF maps. It is appreciated.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes

 

Yep... follows the operational run.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered.

 

 

 

The 00z EPS is much colder than both the GEFS and GEPS at day 10.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm going to take a short nap. Will be back for the night shift.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z EPS is much colder than both the GEFS and GEPS at day 10.

Yeah. Looks like a real northerly cold shot.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I still see some potential for colder runs ahead.

[Deweydog]

And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered.

 

 

 

Cut the crap, Tim.

[El_Nina]

35 here. Got sunburned earlier.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the cold is a lock now.  This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.

[MossMan]

Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.

Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!!

[Requiem]

Looks like the cold is a lock now.  This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.

 

Even colder than before? Wow.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.

I agree... the EPS has led me to believe this is an absolute lock.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!!

The snow that falls is going to be around for quite awhile.

[Perturbed Member]

Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!!

 

I like the odds of that for convergence zone prone areas up north. Several euro runs have shown that signature up there. 

[MossMan]

Perhaps a repeat?

https://youtu.be/lhc_8_W3hRM

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAVGEM in comparison to the 00z GFS

 

 

 

Ridge looks a bit more potent and the cold air digs a bit further south. 

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the cold is a lock now.  This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.

 

The OP GFS is the warmest model around now and even it still brings -8c 850mbs to PDX and is itself a warm outlier relative to the GFS ensembles. 

 

I think we're in about as good shape as you really can be 4-5 days out. 

[El_Nina]

It seems pretty crazy how suddenly this showed up. The weather app now has snow of some sort in the forecast each day Sunday to Wednesday.

[MossMan]

The OP GFS is the warmest model around now and even it still brings -8c 850mbs to PDX and is itself a warm outlier relative to the GFS ensembles.

 

I think we're in about as good shape as you really can be 4-5 days out.

It’s crazy to think that just what two days ago the ensembles hardly had any members running below 0 mark for the 850’s through the extended.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice.

 

 

[MossMan]

6 NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice.

 

 

We are moving into NAM territory...it’s getting real now!!

[Gradient Keeper]

We are moving into NAM territory...it’s getting real now!!

Yep! Question is whether or not a good chunk of that makes it southward over us. Awaiting the 6z GFS in 26 minutes

[snow_wizard]

6z NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice.

 

 

 

That is some bloody serious cold!  The Fraser outflow will probably be brutal with this.  Often lower level temps are colder than would be expected based on 850s alone with type of air mass.  I still can't believe this kind of cold will be available when so much cold is east of the Rockies at present.

[Requiem]

This is exciting! Would anyone have expected these model outcomes looking at them a few days ago?

[Blizzard777]

With all due respect' I believe this will be our finest hour!

 

Where’s my white vest

 

32* and back to sleep

[Jbolin]

Is it time to get excited yet? 

 

[snow_wizard]

This is exciting! Would anyone have expected these model outcomes looking at them a few days ago?

 

 

The FV3 and ECMWF ensemble were keeping the hope alive when other models backed off.  The FV3 did back off on this cold wave for a couple of runs, but still got it cold eventually on every single run.  Assuming this verifies I would give the FV3 an A-.  This could make tracking coming cold snaps much less dicey in the future.

[Gradient Keeper]

That is some bloody serious cold!  The Fraser outflow will probably be brutal with this.  Often lower level temps are colder than would be expected based on 850s alone with type of air mass.  I still can't believe this kind of cold will be available when so much cold is east of the Rockies at present.

Yep, definitely is!

 

Can you fix this?

 

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[Gradient Keeper]

1:20 AM Columbia Basin cold pool
Continuing to deepen and expand.