January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I thought you also said the upper level ridging fed off the blob in another post? Like I said, you were a little hard to follow, which is probably why several posters apparently misunderstood you.

I think this is the post that threw people off, since you said you think the blob might "help promote blocking".

 

To be fair, you did clarify more later.

It was a reply to JcmcGaffey's post where he said he wouldn't mind the blob going away for the Winter. I just pointed out that the blob didn't have that much effect and gave an example for the 13-14 Winter where the blob was evident and we still got a couple Arctic Blast.

 

As for the point that once the blob forms and it helps promote blocking, I still stand by that statement. I mentioned the NASA scientists, I also have heard Joe Bastardi mention it.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

Boiling SST off coast will help pump ridge NEXT week, FLORENCE bust Central Atlantic trof, turn back west ,become major hurricane, with threat to east coast Sept 12-16. Pattern identified in May Less intensity in deep tropics, more n/w All hail JMA 10 days ago catching pattern!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1036328405007036416?lang=en

 

There are also many scientific articles online that go into more detail regarding the warm SST ridge connection.

 

It's just my personal opinion and I respect anybody else's opinion even if it differs. Now let's focus on the rest of this Winter, we will have plenty of time to talk about hot ridges later this Spring and Summer.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Does it really matter if we have the old GFS. Has the new one been better? Seems like same s**t different pile type of thing.

Well the FV3 is suppose to replace the new one and is an upgrade. I think in general it's been a little bit better from what I've seen.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm liking the general pattern of where things are headed the last half of January. Here is what the 00z EURO showed last night at day 10 compared to what it showed tonight for the same time period. Big shift in keeping more Arctic air in Western Canada. It's going to be a wild roller coaster ride the rest of the Winter. I like our chances to score sometime down the road.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm liking the general pattern of where things are headed the last half of January. Here is what the 00z EURO showed last night at day 10 compared to what it showed tonight for the same time period. Big shift in keeping more Arctic air in Western Canada. It's going to be a wild roller coaster ride the rest of the Winter. I like our chances to score sometime down the road.

 

No Alaska block? How is that good even with the cold air ready to drop somewhere? Looks like a typical Spokane east setup where the WCWF will be in full force.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

No Alaska block? How is that good even with the cold air ready to drop somewhere? Looks like a typical Spokane east setup where the WCWF will be in full force.

Well yesterday the EURO had 850mb temps of +7C at day 10 for PDX. Fast forward to tonight and it's now showing -2C for the same time frame. I'd say that's a good trend whenever models get -9C colder. We don't want the Arctic air to slide East.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well yesterday the EURO had 850mb temps of +7C at day 10 for PDX. Fast forward to tonight and it's now showing -2C for the same time frame. I'd say that's a good trend whenever models get -9C colder. We don't want the Arctic air to slide East.

 

#SlidesWest?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

#SlidesWest?

It tries to. You can see the Arctic Trough start to dig SW but it eventually can't make it down to the PNW on this run because of a monster 957mb Low that heads towards us. We need the strong Pacific Jet to relax a bit for us to have a chance at getting some Arctic air. I think it eventually will in the end and we will score.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS keeps the entire country (including Alaska) warm through the long range.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

 

[The Swamp]

In The Swamp this morning I can report light accumulation of very cold rain. Almost enough to form a few puddles. Winter is here!

 

This is what we are left with. Global warming.

[Esquimalt]

Neither the 18Z FV3 or the 00Z FV3 agreed with the crazy 06Z pattern from yesterday. Both newer runs show the cold air blasted east.

[Jesse]

Well the FV3 is suppose to replace the new one and is an upgrade. I think in general it's been a little bit better from what I've seen.

Seems like it’s consistently overforecasted cold so far this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems to be a popular area to move to. We have aunts, uncles, and grandparents that all plan to make the move over there at some point over the next year. A couple of our friends are also contemplating moving over there as well.

 

Not sure what the cause is behind the mini-migration but it is pretty odd with the similar timing. One of the uncles on my wife's side has lived over there for a long time and says there are a lot of new housing developments being built. Western part of the state must be getting too d**n expensive for most people!

 

WHITE FLIGHT

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just did a Google street view tour of the area south of I-90... its looks really nice.     I have never actually been through that area despite spending so much time in Spokane for work.    I think we would probably end up in the Liberty Lake area if we were moving there.  

 

I considered moving to Spokane around 2010/2011. We ended up settling back in Oregon because my ex-wife who was from Oklahoma had been to Oregon many times and Spokane only once and was just more comfortable moving back here. Housing around that time was very affordable everywhere, but even cheaper in Spokane than it was down here. I still check housing prices out there now and then and it still seems relatively affordable compared to here. So a lot of people from the Seattle area I would imagine are drawn there by the lower cost of living. We looked mostly at property with acreage. There were some nice properties south of town and north towards Mt. Spokane that were dirt cheap back then. 10+ acres with a decent house for under 200K at that time. In town there were nice homes that were fairly affordable in that South Hill area. I am sure they have gone up 50-60% since that time, but would still probably be a bargain compared to Seattle or PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like it’s consistently overforecasted cold so far this winter.

 

If the FV3 had been verifying we'd be running at near normal temps this winter. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

If the FV3 had been verifying we'd be running at near normal temps this winter.

Ryan Maue says it has not been better than the GFS and that the Euro has been improving, so the American models have been falling further behind. Also the Canadian model has done a lot better since their upgrade.

[Jesse]

If the FV3 had been verifying we'd be running at near normal temps this winter.

Must take one hell of an update to forecast climo.

[Front Ranger]

If the FV3 had been verifying we'd be running at near normal temps this winter.

For what period, though? I don't recall the FV3 showing much meaningful cold within 7-8 days out.

[Jesse]

Ryan Maue says it has not been better than the GFS and that the Euro has been improving, so the American models have been falling further behind. Also the Canadian model has done a lot better since their upgrade.

We need to build a wall to keep the foreign models out. That way the GFS will be the best by default since we will have nothing to compare it to. USA!!

[Front Ranger]

As far as actual verification scores, last I saw the FV3 was a slight improvement over the old GFS in the short/mid range.

 

Seemed to have some issues with precip amounts in some situations and over-developing heatwaves, from what I remember.

[umadbro]

Welp. I'm forking 18/19. There is nothing that says anything neat will happen.

 

....and I'm already over it.

[Jesse]

It’s January 9th.

[MossMan]

This would make the news.

 

If it comes in around the mouth of the Columbia it should suffice to suck so cold air into Washington. And K12 would get a nice little windstorm.

[HighlandExperience]

WHITE FLIGHT

Spokane is where lower income whites who can’t afford the east side are moving. Parts of Bellevue and the east side is easily 30-40 percent Asian American now.

[TT-SEA]

Nice sunrise after some rain earlier...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Spokane is where lower income whites who can’t afford the east side are moving. Parts of Bellevue and the east side is easily 30-40 percent Asian American now.

In some cases maybe ... but I would not consider the three people I know, who make well above six figures that are moving to Spokane would be considered lower income.

[umadbro]

It’s January 9th.

Tomorrow is January 10th

[Jesse]

Tomorrow is January 10th

I’m over it.

[TT-SEA]

Looking forward to a totally dry weekend.   Time to begin some yard clean up and start thinking about spring.  

 

We have had enough wind, rain, and even snow here recently.    

[umadbro]

Looking forward to a totally dry weekend. Time to begin some yard clean up and start thinking about spring.

 

We have had enough wind, rain, and even snow here recently.

Time for someone to get triggered by what you want then subsequently call you names.

[TT-SEA]

Time for someone to get triggered by what you want then subsequently call you names.

 

 

Indeed.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and 12Z ICON are totally dry starting tomorrow through at least the middle of next week.    Nice break.

[Phil]

Week-2 GEFS. The cold is finally back.

 

[Timmy]

Week-2 GEFS. The cold is finally back.

 

speak for yourself

[TT-SEA]

speak for yourself

 

I think he means its back at least somewhere... which is a big change.

[Phil]

I think he means its back at least somewhere... which is a big change.

Yes. And the EPS does get there with the pattern. It just takes a little longer.

 

Still a bit more progressive though, with everything bumped farther east.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Haha Tim you Are worse than the Big box stores thinking about spring Jan 9.  Pretty soon you will be trying to sell us seeds to plant on Christmas eve.

[TT-SEA]

Haha Tim you Are worse than the Big box stores thinking about spring Jan 9.  Pretty soon you will be trying to sell us seeds to plant on Christmas eve.

 

 

No... last year was a good reminder that spring planting should not be rushed no matter how warm it is in January.   

 

But clean up and preparation can happen whenever its nice in January and February.  

[Blizzard777]

Tomorrow is January 10th

Let us not get ahead of ourselves

Today’s garbage day....Best day of the week!

[Blizzard777]

Not terrible for the Washington Cascades but still not good

Oregon has some work to do

[Blizzard777]

Finally back home in my nest

42* and soggy out with standing puddles everywhere ( including one water logged rat in my driveway that even the crows wouldn’t eat)

1.82 inches of precipitation for the year so far

High 54 low 29 average 41*