Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Clinton]

The runs tonight are looking stronger and more organized as expected.  It's going to be an exciting weekend for most of us.

[jlp]

Cmc more inline with GFS

[jaster220]

Exact same thing haappened for the Blizzard of DEC 09. 1-3" out in front of the main system here in C.IA. I don't believe this has it's roots in the Bering Sea (that one did) but this one is getting "somewhat" close. That one had 20+mb gradient over the state of IA and sustained 40-45mph winds with gusts to over 60. 

 

One of my fave's here. We did not get your bliz winds but due to the occlusion timed just right, we did get a surprise LehS storm of 10" all the way into Marshall. BC hit 12" and Kzoo was tops with 14". Total surprise as I wasn't expecting a thing here.

[jaster220]

The runs tonight are looking stronger and more organized as expected.  It's going to be an exciting weekend for most of us.

 

Dream weekend, especially for those side-lined last storm.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS took a big step in the right direction! 

[Stormhunter87]

Cmc more inline with GFS

Yes but weaker and really doesn't develop the snow well after the other models. Canadian by far my least favourite run tonight.

[GDR]

CMC looks blah

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I agree, CMC not the greatest. Wish the two would phase quicker over Nebraska. But things are looking good.

[jaster220]

Don't think I've ever seen a LES signature south of Lk Michigan to like Terre Haute!! Wild GGEM stuff. The drunk model

 

[jaster220]

I agree, CMC not the greatest. Wish the two would phase quicker over Nebraska. But things are looking good.

 

It was actually a massive step in the correct direction considering the wild swings seen in recent runs. It'll come to the party when it counts, incognito dressed up as the RGEM, lol

[Money]

Ukie is way south and weak

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie about 75-100 miles S of GFS at HR 96 with posistion of L. It also does not cut it as fast-- wait until after 120 to 144. If someone could post the precip maps POST HR 72 that would be great. Thanks in advance.

[jaster220]

Meanwhile, I have a rare headline and could care less...strange winter

[GDR]

Ukie =yuck

[jaster220]

15/0z ICON still a southern option, but at least not a complete whiff like last night's run..

 

[jaster220]

Ukie =yuck

 

Sad as last night's run was epic. Models keep taking turns showing the potential then losing it. Thursday before good sampling so bouncing will no doubt continue..

[GDR]

Let’s see what the euro has to say...

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie is quite similar to the the ICON in where it ihinks the L is from 96 to 120. 

[jcwxguy]

00z GFS ensembles

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[Niko]

FV3 is awesome.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro N of UKie--- that is for sure. precip will be intersting 

[Money]

Euro might even be farther north than gfs

[Grizzcoat]

Euro and GFS are almost uncanny in consitentecy here in C.IA.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

I sense a small trend S overall. It makes sense with not such a strong L and overall moderate at best WAA out in front. That coupled with SERIOS CAA to the  NW that says get the heck out of my way. LOW man wins and we are not talking pressure.  I would expect slight shifts S in future guidance. Amazing this is being done with little to no snowover in C.MN and points W though E. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Actually the EURO came a tad north after comparing it to 12z.

[OKwx2k4]

I almost got my hopes up for this weekend. Next runs.

 

You folks up there are finna get smashed. That should be quite fun to watch.

 

1° with no snow is going to be like driving nails through my skull if it verifies.

[Grizzcoat]

Actually the EURO came a tad north after comparing it to 12z.

Overall-- it seems a blend of all guidance shifted S. 

[Tom]

The last 6 GEFS runs have shown more precip filling in farther NW out in the Plains and somewhat shifting NW overall...could be a sign of better phasing earlier on.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control...gets those in S WI in the game...

[GDR]

KC gets rocked on the 06 gfs

[Clinton]

KC gets rocked on the 06 gfs

I am expecting something like this based on the LRC.  Artic air gonna push this much further south this cycle,

[Tom]

Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, I'm seeing some notable, yet subtle changes at 500mb when looking at the northern stream & southern wave.  The last 2 runs are showing better phasing as the system track east across S IL/S IN into the OV.  Hense, you can see there has been an uptick in the snow mean overall across IL/IN/S IM into OH.  

 

@ Jaster, I find your comment of the "Little Dog/Big Dog" path may be working out quite well.  I have seen this in year's past where our area was not the benefactor and more recently this happening in the Nina year of '16/'17 where storms tracked NW of here and we got stuck in rain/snow mix scenario.  This time, I'm starting to really feel good about this one over performing around the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Trends in the EPS members are showing some massive hits across IL/N IN/S MI/OH.  Overall, this system has Big Dog potential on the table and somebody is going to get crushed.

[Tom]

Both Euro/GFS starting to see a major winter storm in the works...

 

[Tom]

FWIW, the 06z ICON may be hinting at a better phase of both N/S streams....similar to what the Euro/EPS are indicating....

[Tom]

Here is BAMWx's thinking for this storm system...

 

 

 

06z GEFS total qpf which also include the Thu wave across MO into C/S IL/IN....

 

[jlp]

Good stuff! Hopefully SE Wisconsin can get in on some of the fun.

[Tom]

Good stuff! Hopefully SE Wisconsin can get in on some of the fun.

Looking better!