Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Clinton]

For a system just 2 days away there seems to be a lot of question marks.  One model shows me with 1" and another model puts out over 6".  Local mets talk about how complex this system is.  Hopefully after the 0Z runs tonight there will be a more solid consensus.

The energy will be onshore tomorrow morning so it might be 24 more hours

[CentralNebWeather]

The energy will be onshore tomorrow morning so it might be 24 more hours

Thanks.  I was thinking it was tonight so more waiting.

[james1976]

8+ for me on the NAM. Lock it!

[Stormhunter87]

Icon looks brutal for Missouri

[Clinton]

Icon looks brutal for Missouri

Bring it on!

[Hawkeye]

Well, the models are still suggesting there could be a pretty nice band of snow somewhere in Iowa.  Each model streaks that initial band out across Iowa a bit differently, some north of CR, some over CR.  3-6" is still possible.  Heck, the new ICON spits out 0.75" in Waterloo... likely overdone, but.

[Tom]

Something to point out so far in today's 12z runs from both the NAM's and ICON is the placement and strength of the Fronto Banding which lines up with the 06z Euro earlier today.  

[Tom]

12z ICON total precip and snow....

 

 

 

[Tom]

Just from gauging at this distance, the look of the fronto banding looks nasty.  Wherever that lines up will certainly put down some great rates.

[Hawkeye]

LOL.  Some of the snow maps being spit out by the models are amusingly patchy.

[East Dubzz]

12z GFS looks pretty similar to the 06z run so far, maybe slightly further south.

[East Dubzz]

Pretty similar to the last run. Maybe a little stronger in E Iowa / N Missouri

[Tom]

12z GFS a lot better on the north end than the 00z run from last night...not good for NE peeps...Lehs showing up clearly across E WI into NE IL.

[Tom]

12z GFS...close up using kuchera method...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011612/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Hawkeye]

A couple of these models are quite far north with that initial wave.

[WBadgersW]

I fly back home Thursday night. Here's hoping I come back to a moderate nowfall.

[Tom]

Woah, that's a big uptick from the SREF's...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif

[bud2380]

Improvements from the NAM & GFS this morning, that's good to see.  I think that initial band will hit northern Iowa hardest though, so I think in Iowa that will be where we see the heaviest totals.  

[Clinton]

Woah, that's a big uptick from the SREF's...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif

I think this should have everyones attention.

[james1976]

Northern stream looks more intense with today's 12z runs.

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3 is a bit of an improvement as well.  The moat has filled in some.

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian... farther south with the northern wave than other models.

 

[gimmesnow]

I'm right in the bull's eye with that weenie band. But it's so far out, I feel like this is all just going to be taken away from me. Models are a cruel mistress.

[Clinton]

12z CMC matches exactly with what I have been thinking.  This is the one I am looking for.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a great morning of runs for Nebraskans.  Hope the next 24 hours change things a little for us.  My guess is a 1-3", hope I'm wrong and we could get a 3-6".  

[Stormhunter87]

Not a great morning of runs for Nebraskans. Hope the next 24 hours change things a little for us. My guess is a 1-3", hope I'm wrong and we could get a 3-6".

Yeah I'm about to bail on this storm :/

[bud2380]

How wHeird.  Models coming into agreement.  It's bound to collapse.  

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011612/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

For Iowa City; models this morning show:

 

NAM - 6.1"

GFS - 5.6"

CMC - 5.6"

[Clinton]

CMC with Kuchera

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011612/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Clinton]

My hope for this storm is starting to wane (for KC).  But I will say that two days before the November blizzard in KC, most of the models had Des Moines getting clobbered while KC got rain.  So one never knows.  

NO.  KC is in a good spot, better spot than I am on these maps.  This storm should really organize over Oklahoma and have good structure as it moves across northern Arkansas.

[bud2380]

New GFS

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

[East Dubzz]

12z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019011612_96_5660_220.png

I think a forecast of 3-6” seems pretty plausible at this time. Models seem to be in decent agreement with that.

 

Of course, that probably means we’re going to be thrown a curveball soon lol

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah I'm about to bail on this storm :/

I'm with you.  The one next week actually looks a little more promising.  This one might just get us a little snow cover unless the fluffy snow just blows around.  

[Hawkeye]

Multiple models are spitting out 0.60+" qpf in that band streaking through northern Iowa.  With good ratios, that's a darn good storm.  We just need that to edge south a bit.

[Stormhunter87]

I'm with you. The one next week actually looks a little more promising. This one might just get us a little snow cover unless the fluffy snow just blows around.

I'll wait for the 00z runs for the data but probably going to bail. Looks good for others in this forum which is cool.

[Tom]

12z GEFS total qpf...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I'll wait for the 00z runs for the data but probably going to bail. Looks good for others in this forum which is cool.

Good idea.  

[jaster220]

SREF's looking pretty good at this range...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/03/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif

 

Will comment again - massive area of snow from 1 system

[Tony]

Still liking the LES signals for this weekend as who/where this band sets up will be in for a real surprise snowfall. Looking at a long duration heavy snow setup with several inches of snow very likely. Going out on a limb on this and will say that by the time it's all said and done that there will be areas around LM that see over 12" of snow.