February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like 925mb temps in Western King County are at 0 and dropping. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

[Jbolin]

Very strong outflow in BC, 

Cathedral Point -13C NNE 116/G145km/h

[Jesse]

Models

Suddenly all looking super anemic for moisture for my place

There was a NAM map someone posted last night that basically had a hole in the precip direcly over my house.

 

Still a lot to be nailed down, of course. I would be pretty happy with an inch or two.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows snow over the immediate Seattle area into tomorrow now.    But dry over central and eastern King County.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very strong outflow in BC, 

Cathedral Point -13C NNE 166/G145km/h

WOW thats 90mph

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12Z GFS shows snow over the immediate Seattle area into tomorrow now.    But dry over central and eastern King County.

Hr30 looks better for you.

[Jbolin]

WOW thats 90mph

Have to edit my post, that's supposed to be 116 G to 145km/h 

 

Not 166km/h

[TT-SEA]

Hr30 looks better for you.

 

 

No... hour 30 is dry here.   But this is improved to my west compared to the 00Z run.

 

[El_Nina]

Splat test positive in boring.

[dairyd]

sumas winds finally kicking up to decent speeds. temps dropped to 28 too.  going to be a fun morning up there with that band moving north...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Every model so far looks a little dryer than last 2 runs.

[Jbolin]

Every model so far looks a little dryer than last 2 runs.

I think it's going to come down to "LOYWAS"

[Guest hawkstwelve]

3km NAM is much closer to the WRF and Euro now, showing heaviest accumulations east of Puget Sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like about 1/3" of precip here since midnight. That band turned out to be pretty juicy.

[Requiem]

Got a good feeling I’ll set at least a snow shower or two up here in the West Hills. Exciting days ahead!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 in hope with 40mph winds. It's coming!

[Guest hawkstwelve]

12z GFS looks pretty similar to 06z totals, perhaps a hair more directly over Puget Sound and adjacent areas. Pretty close though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to go with T-1" for the valley floor and PDX. Up to 2" above 500' for places like the West Hills and South Salem Hills. Going to forecast 2-4" of snow here overnight. 

 

Then maybe another T-1" for PDX metro with the deformation band tomorrow and T-2" here. 

[FroYoBro]

Looks like a snow shower is on the way to Bellingham. Dew point is down to 21 there. 

[Requiem]

I'm going to go with T-1" for the valley floor and PDX. Up to 2" above 500' for places like the West Hills and South Salem Hills. Going to forecast 2-4" of snow here overnight. 

 

Then maybe another T-1" for PDX metro with the deformation band tomorrow and T-2" here.

 

I think that’s pretty accurate, though the NAM is coming in with higher totals.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

A couple graphics from NWS Seattle this morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a snow shower is on the way to Bellingham. Dew point is down to 21 there.

 

Yep! yahhhh!!

[Prairiedog]

Special Weather Statement

Issued: 3:53 AM Feb. 3, 2019 – National Weather Service

...LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Showers are likely across northwest Oregon and southwest
Washington from this afternoon into Monday night. As cold air
moves in from the north, snow levels will lower Sunday afternoon
through Monday.

The best chances for accumulating snow will be in the Coast Range,
Willapa Hills, and Cascade Foothills Sunday night and Monday,
where accumulations are expected to range anywhere from 2 to 7
inches, with the heaviest amounts likely above 1000 feet. At the
coast and in the inland valleys, sticking snow will be harder to
come by. One to 3 inches are possible, but this will be mainly
above 500 feet, and during the day Monday. In the central and
western Columbia River Gorge and in the Hood River Valley, 1 to 3
inches of snow can be expected, primarily Monday and Monday
night.

As the snow showers decrease Monday afternoon and Monday night,
some of the coldest air yet of the winter will move in. Expect
lows by Tuesday morning to drop into the 20s in most low elevation
locations, with teens locally possible in areas that receive
a little snow cover. Cold temperatures and residual moisture could
lead to icy roads Monday night and Tuesda

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a snow shower is on the way to Bellingham. Dew point is down to 21 there. 

 

 

Here is a great cam for Bellingham... you can watch the action in real time.   Its not just an image that updates each minute... its a live feed.

 

http://barkleyvillage.com/web-cameras/

 

[Requiem]

Special Weather Statement

 

Issued: 3:53 AM Feb. 3, 2019 – National Weather Service

...LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Showers are likely across northwest Oregon and southwest

Washington from this afternoon into Monday night. As cold air

moves in from the north, snow levels will lower Sunday afternoon

through Monday.

The best chances for accumulating snow will be in the Coast Range,

Willapa Hills, and Cascade Foothills Sunday night and Monday,

where accumulations are expected to range anywhere from 2 to 7

inches, with the heaviest amounts likely above 1000 feet. At the

coast and in the inland valleys, sticking snow will be harder to

come by. One to 3 inches are possible, but this will be mainly

above 500 feet, and during the day Monday. In the central and

western Columbia River Gorge and in the Hood River Valley, 1 to 3

inches of snow can be expected, primarily Monday and Monday

night.

As the snow showers decrease Monday afternoon and Monday night,

some of the coldest air yet of the winter will move in. Expect

lows by Tuesday morning to drop into the 20s in most low elevation

locations, with teens locally possible in areas that receive

a little snow cover. Cold temperatures and residual moisture could

lead to icy roads Monday night and Tuesda

Sounds a lot less enthusiastic than the Seattle discussion.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FWIW, 12z RGEM is a little snowier for Western WA than 06z. More widespread 2-3 inches.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

06z Euro was also quite a bit more snowier than 00z for many locations east of Puget Sound.

 

Would absolutely love for this to verify.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Special Weather Statement

Issued: 3:53 AM Feb. 3, 2019 – National Weather Service

...LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

 

Showers are likely across northwest Oregon and southwest

Washington from this afternoon into Monday night. As cold air

moves in from the north, snow levels will lower Sunday afternoon

through Monday.

 

The best chances for accumulating snow will be in the Coast Range,

Willapa Hills, and Cascade Foothills Sunday night and Monday,

where accumulations are expected to range anywhere from 2 to 7

inches, with the heaviest amounts likely above 1000 feet. At the

coast and in the inland valleys, sticking snow will be harder to

come by. One to 3 inches are possible, but this will be mainly

above 500 feet, and during the day Monday. In the central and

western Columbia River Gorge and in the Hood River Valley, 1 to 3

inches of snow can be expected, primarily Monday and Monday

night.

 

As the snow showers decrease Monday afternoon and Monday night,

some of the coldest air yet of the winter will move in. Expect

lows by Tuesday morning to drop into the 20s in most low elevation

locations, with teens locally possible in areas that receive

a little snow cover. Cold temperatures and residual moisture could

lead to icy roads Monday night and Tuesda

 

 

2-7" here is a broad forecast, but I get it and agree to an extent. It's going to have to do with overall precip and small scale features. 

[Jesse]

[Esquimalt]

06z Euro was also quite a bit more snowier than 00z for many locations east of Puget Sound.

 

Would absolutely love for this to verify.

When does that fall for southern VI?

[TT-SEA]

WRF is a little drier this evening but does show a persistent band of snow over the immediate city of Seattle and the Puget Sound tomorrow morning.  Waiting for total snowfall maps to update.

[TT-SEA]

06z Euro was also quite a bit more snowier than 00z for many locations east of Puget Sound.

 

Would absolutely love for this to verify.

 

 

That is a jump to the north and east again from the 00Z run.  I am certain the models that show it being dry in central and eastern King County are wrong. 

[GHweatherChris]

Looking like a non event for here now, oh well, next!!

[TT-SEA]

A few random ice pellets here and 38 with a decent SW breeze.

[Requiem]

06z Euro was also quite a bit more snowier than 00z for many locations east of Puget Sound.

 

Would absolutely love for this to verify.

Large hole over Portland, if I’m to guess by the lack of snow in N. Clark county.

[dairyd]

mostly low-mid level moisture, current flare up in lower mainland which is interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The late week system looks good for up here and probably the Puget Sound area. Maybe a little to warm for sticking snow at the surface in Portland. 

[FroYoBro]

Next weekend could be snowy. 

[TT-SEA]

HRRR shows nothing happening tonight up here.    I want to see the point at which this model catches on to reality because its lost right now.  

 

[Esquimalt]

The late week system looks good for up here and probably the Puget Sound area. Maybe a little to warm for sticking snow at the surface in Portland.

I think the GFS is overshowing rain for those systems. The temps as currently stand are marginal, but I think with the cold air in place we could stay as snow, at least the Puget Sound and VI