2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah the NAMily is significantly less bonerific for here, but significantly more for much of Wisconsin.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Oax going to lower amounts again since they just upped them a few hours ago if the rest of 00z models show similar amounts? Lol sucks to be them

Seems like every storm has been that way with model disagreement in the days leading up, then the models finally seem to agree on an area or amount the day before and then last minute there’s shifts or changes and they have to make changes and get yelled at by Joe Q Public. It’s been a tough year

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS looks further southeast here as well for Nebraska. Unbelievable.

[jcwxguy]

00z GFS not good for nebraska

[Minny_Weather]

Models always have a bad look for here immediately before storms dump on here. I'm not gonna worry about it till I see radar tomorrow.

[OmahaSnowFan]

From .5-.75” qpf at 12Z to .1” at OZ

[james1976]

My God this thing got weak suddenly

[East Dubzz]

My God this thing got weak suddenly

Nah, I think the heavier stuff just shifted further east. Or it blows up later. Not sure. But still some good totals over here, so I don’t think it’s weakened overall too much.

[jcwxguy]

Lady on kptm said 4 in Norfolk, 3 in Omaha lol

[East Dubzz]

Man, what a difference in freezing rain totals in N IL between the NAM and GFS.

[james1976]

Not that i expected over 6 anyway but would be nice for once

[gosaints]

Not that i expected over 6 anyway but would be nice for once

Could still easily happen

[Money]

My God this thing got weak suddenly

Not really heaviest just moved NE

 

Gfs still showing 10+ inches in WI

[East Dubzz]

Not that i expected over 6 anyway but would be nice for once

Still very possible.

[jaster220]

00z GFS not good for nebraska

 

Looks same for SMI, but is actually an improvement over NAM and such, lol

[Bryan1117]

Could NW Iowa really get nothing from either the Sunday or Tuesday system?  That looked like ground zero a day or two ago.

 

This is the same area that had bare ground during the polar vortex blast while many in the rest of Iowa had 12+ inches on the ground.

I travel to Sioux City and Sioux Falls pretty frequently from Omaha for work, and in the past 3-4 years the area between these two cities has been the jackpot zone for snow during the Winter months. This area just seemed to be a magnet for big storms, however that has changed significantly so far this Winter. 

 

This year these areas have seen very little snow comparatively, while areas north of Sioux Falls and from the Omaha metro on to the south have seen above normal snowfall.  

[Grizzcoat]

[gosaints]

The GFS while yes moving things off to the NE it has also cut overall on QPF from 12z.  Just one model

[East Dubzz]

While not blizzard level, the winds will certainly be a factor with this storm as well.

[jcwxguy]

CMC, still snowing Wisconsin

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not liking the trend with the GFS and NAM models this evening. The HRRR doesn't look too bad though.

[Stacsh]

NAM ain’t winning this one. No reason gut feeling.

[jcwxguy]

Not liking the trend with the GFS and NAM models this evening. The HRRR doesn't look too bad though.

which run of hrrr you looking at?

[Hawkeye]

The GEM Kuchera snow map looks nice, but there has definitely been a drying out from the 12z to 00z run.  It only has 0.5" qpf in CR, less as you go west.  It'll be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do tonight.  They've both been robust with the qpf from central Iowa northeastward.

[East Dubzz]

The GEM Kuchera snow map looks nice, but there has definitely been a drying out from the 12z to 00z run. It only has 0.5" qpf in CR, less as you go west. It'll be interesting to see what the UK and Euro do tonight. They've both been robust with the qpf from central Iowa northeastward.

Are we looking at the same GEM? Seems like it’s showing > 0.75” QPF

[jaster220]

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

That is actually the most sane map I've seen from the models in days.

 

Edit - for SWMI

[Hawkeye]

Are we looking at the same GEM? Seems like it’s showing > 0.75” QPF

 

My mistake.  I was looking at the GFS, not the GEM.  However, the GFS has gone from 0.8 to 0.5" qpf here.

[jaster220]

NAM ain’t winning this one. No reason gut feeling.

 

Agreed. It's usually over-amped and over stoked with WAA, then settles down the "morning of". Some peeps claim it's good inside 36 hrs. I say bunk! It's good the morning of, and not much before. I actually think that the 0z GFS is a reasonable snow scenario for SWMI

[East Dubzz]

My mistake. I was looking at the GFS, not the GEM. However, the GFS has gone from 0.8 to 0.5" qpf here.

Gotcha. Yeah, that makes sense. Seems to be the only model really showing too much of a change though, so we’ll see.

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, the typically-juiced GFS-FV3 has an inch of qpf in CR, twice the regular GFS.  I think 0.5-0.7 is more reasonable.

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[Grizzcoat]

ukie is further S and quicker. Will be shocked if in 5 mins or so it doesn't drastically cut back qpf from 12Z...

[jaster220]

Fyp, a reminder on those RR models that want to take everything and jump it half a state north

 

 

By the way, the RAP and HRRR continue to trend south each run, and are going to be horrendous in their extended ranges as they have been with several recent systems.

[Grizzcoat]

Yep--  ukie cut back for W.Ia but increased for E.iA into WI

[jaster220]

Fv3

 

Like the snow placement in SWMI, even if it's over-done a bit

[jaster220]

Yep--  ukie cut back for W.Ia but increased for E.iA into WI

 

Map?

[Money]

Looks like Ukie is in agreement with nam on the track

[Grizzcoat]

Map?

Accumulations are not out for awhile- but here is the most recent run.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030

[bud2380]

Rough estimate to me looks like a solid .75” qpf for Iowa

City/CR area on the Ukie.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well thing seems to have changed drastically, lets see how things still look in the morning. If we can pick up another 2-3 inches I will be satisfied. If we have to nickel and dime our way to above average so be it lol.