2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

This is at least as juicy as the FV3 for eastern Iowa... over an inch of precip.  It still has 0.6" back to Des Moines.

 

[NH4NU]

Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened?

[Grizzcoat]

Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened?

I would somewhat disagree -- models have gotten better. But analyzing them and with good olde analytical forecasting is a lost art. too many model worship without being able to tell the why's and whats of the atmosphere interactions -- without models.  A good % of mets would be lost without models. They never learned (or forgot) how to forecast without them.... That's where the flip flopping comes from.

[Stormhunter87]

Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened?

Different storm setups or they have changed the inputs alot.

[Niko]

NWS thinks a 4-6" w some ice looks like a safe bet for SEMI. Although, changes can still happen. We will see!. As for now, looks messy.

[james1976]

DMX 9:21 update still has me 5-8" but now they added the "locally higher amounts possible" wording.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

It's not a lost cause yet, Lincoln and Omaha are either going to be in the heavy band or miss it just too the south by one county. Still some time for things to change!

[Grizzcoat]

00z UK

 

This is at least as juicy as the FV3 for eastern Iowa... over an inch of precip.  It still has 0.6" back to Des Moines.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019021100_60_5660_220.png

Not as bad as I thought. And here I go looking at models ) --- in all seriousness- I don't think the E trend is over. Storm is more progressive (at least here) before it slows down to the E.

[Minny_Weather]

It's not a lost cause yet, Lincoln and Omaha are either going to be in the heavy band or miss it just too the south by one county. Still some time for things to change!

Yeah like I said before, models always drastically decrease totals then radar comes along and proves them wrong. That's been the case for most storms here this year. It's not over till it's over imo.

[jcwxguy]

Euro says south

[jcwxguy]

Hr 36

[jcwxguy]

Still snowing in Wisconsin

[bud2380]

Wow. The entire state of WI is gonna get hammered. Looking good now in my neck of the woods as well. Looks like the 8th school cancellation in the past month will be forthcoming.

[Hawkeye]

It's too bad this system can't wrap up a little earlier.  The snow in Iowa largely comes in a single wave rather than a robust deformation zone that curls back and keeps the snow falling for a long duration.  Wisconsin will be in line to get that.  It should be a pretty intense wave, though.  It's too bad it'll mostly fall between 6pm and 2am, just like all bigger storms.

[james1976]

It can stop going east now

[jcwxguy]

I would take the 3-4" shown there, better than nam and gfs for sure

[hlcater]

This storm will likely push the CR/IC area to total seasonal average. So anything from here on out could be seen as a bonus.

[jcwxguy]

Nam/GFS/hrrr vs rdps/gdps/euro/wrf suite

[Hawkeye]

Here's the 00z euro qpf map from weather.us

 

[Bellona]

It can stop going east now

I agree!

[ToastedRavs]

6z HRRR gives me 6 to 7 inches...so that is the only model and only model run I will believe! Ha! But anything over 5, I'll be happy with. Good luck everyone...NE IA and Wisconsin seem to be the winners at this point

[Bellona]

NAM looks pretty good in IA for us East of I35.

[gosaints]

NAM looks pretty good in IA for us East of I35.

yep held course for the most part...

[Grizzcoat]

3km still sucks outside E.IA and Wisky

[gosaints]

3km still sucks outside E.IA and Wisky

ha ha ya from 6 inches in Rochester to 14 in La Crosse.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

New NAM actually gives Omaha and Lincoln 4-5 inches isolated 6 inches! Think its trying to inch back NW now. Time will tell

[Grizzcoat]

Better off going with the 3KM at this range... My gut call in IA- is warnings E of I-35 and North of Hwy 34. WWA further W with likely a cold bologna sandwich for NW IA.

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS  lining up with my thoughts on this event. 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019021106&fh=39&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=rdps

[Grizzcoat]

No doubt the S and E trend continues on 6Z gfs-- turning into a turd even E of I-35 in IA-- the Omahadome is spreading E.... 

[Grizzcoat]

Better off going with the 3KM at this range... My gut call in IA- is warnings E of I-35 and North of Hwy 34. WWA further W with likely a cold bologna sandwich for NW IA.

CYA for counties near DSM-- but just as I said. (expect the warnings W of DSM to be downgraded.)

[Grizzcoat]

It seems I have a better chance of 6" with WWA than WSW-- been that way for the last 2 years + -- I see no way warming material will be met here. 

[GDR]

Looks like a complete turd fest through the whole run

[Tom]

The trends over the past 24 hours are now beginning to shift SE as the models are now all coming into agreement that the southern piece coming off the main vorticity is tracking farther S across the S Plains across the TX Panhandle region as they all collect better data.  Check out the last 8 runs off the GFS 500mb map below and one will notice how much farther S this energy is tracking and is now dictating the SE trend.  By far, the UKIE model was the best at handling this one IMO.

 

Locally speaking, this may be paying dividends across N IL as the GFS is coming in colder/snowier....I'm still worried about the warm layer and this may in fact just end up being a nowcast event....#nailbiter

 

 

 

[dubuque473]

Another night time snow. DVN has us for 8” which I believe since it is back to work tomorrow.

[Tom]

06z FV3...

 

[Tom]

00z EPS...drastic E shift with the heaviest snows and now targeting N/C WI...

[Money]

Looking good for at least 6-10 here

 

NAM/RGEM/FV3 all with 10+

[Tom]

Looking good for at least 6-10 here

 

NAM/RGEM/FV3 all with 10+

I like where you sit...that also goes with the rest of Wisco...the Lehs signal is also showing up which could be an added bonus...

 

06z GEFS...

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...ice accumulation...hoping we end up a degree or two colder around here...