2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

 To Tom's maps-- Man that's a hell of bust in SW IA compared to the latest RAP and HRRR- yeah I know on HRRR and RAP- but they are getting in some range

[Tom]

 To Tom's maps-- Man that's a hell of bust in SW IA compared to the latest RAP and HRRR- yeah I know on HRRR and RAP- but they are getting in some range

Even the King will bust big near DSM from just 12-24 hours ago...amazing how much this thing has shifted E with the heavy snows...that's a punch in the gut after days and days being in the jackzone to have it shift so dramatically inside 48 hours.

[james1976]

Will IA even get snow? Not buying the 5-7" warning I'm in.

[Niko]

WinterStorm Watch issued for SEMI...for significant snow and ice.

[Madtown]

riding the dry slot line according to mkx

[gosaints]

HRRR this morning still says I wont have to travel far for the goods.  

[ToastedRavs]

[bud2380]

HRRR looks great for Iowa city and CR

[james1976]

Could someone post the HRRR? Thanks!

[gosaints]

[CentralNebWeather]

Well our school just called off. Freezing drizzle is nasty. There will be many Nebraska schools closed today but not by snow. Oh well, a day off.

[Minny_Weather]

Once again that is a perfect cutoff right on my county line.

[East Dubzz]

DVN forecast map actually has me just inside the 8-10” mark, but I think 6-8” seems like an okay bet at this time. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up around the 8” mark, but also wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up less than 6”, because that seems like it’s been a tough mark to get over this year!

[bud2380]

I'm done looking at models from here on out, just going blindly with this one.  12z HRRR   

 

[Minny_Weather]

Good to see HRRR going back West. Maybe radar will be West as well.

[Tony]

00z Euro...ice accumulation...hoping we end up a degree or two colder around here...

Not as bad as the 0z Nam was showing but still enough ice to make it suck. Not sure what to expect with the snow portion but at least models are showing some snow. Wisconsin looking real good with this storm.

[IowaHawkeyes]

I'm done looking at models from here on out, just going blindly with this one. 12z HRRR

 

I will take this have me close to the 12 inches

[Money]

Nam is awesome here

[james1976]

If someone wants to lock in that HRRR that would be cool

[Grizzcoat]

Radar trends now … but I think E trend still holds. DSM max 5"

[Hawkeye]

These bigger storms are showing major last-minute south/east shifts this year.  I just hope this one is done shifting.  If the ratio is decent, I could see my best snowfall of the season.  My best so far is only 4.8".

 

There is still a widespread range of qpf for eastern Iowa... from 0.50 to over 1.00".  Considering we've been forecasted to received 6-8" a few times already in the last month, but each time ended up with only 3-5", I'm going to guess I will get 5 inches from this.

[gosaints]

These bigger storms are showing major last-minute south/east shifts this year.  I just hope this one is done shifting.  If the ratio is decent, I could see my best snowfall of the season.  My best so far is only 4.8".

 

There is still a widespread range of qpf for eastern Iowa... from 0.50 to over 1.00".  Considering we've been forecasted to received 6-8" a few times already in the last month, but each time ended up with only 3-5", I'm going to guess I will get 5 inches from this.

It really has been amazing.  The year of the SE movement

[Grizzcoat]

I personally wouldn't trust the HRRR past 10 hrs; the RAP 12/ 

[East Dubzz]

These bigger storms are showing major last-minute south/east shifts this year. I just hope this one is done shifting. If the ratio is decent, I could see my best snowfall of the season. My best so far is only 4.8".

 

There is still a widespread range of qpf for eastern Iowa... from 0.50 to over 1.00". Considering we've been forecasted to received 6-8" a few times already in the last month, but each time ended up with only 3-5", I'm going to guess I will get 5 inches from this.

My thoughts as well. 6-8 seems like a good forecast, but I have felt that way several times this year, only to fall jussstt short of that 6” mark. Seems like the best way to approach these storms is to usually take an inch or two off the forecast, and that’s where it will usually end up at. Hope to be wrong this time, though! Either way, it’s going to be a nice snowfall, and I won’t complain about that.

[gosaints]

I personally wouldn't trust the HRRR past 10 hrs; the RAP 12/ 

Some days 3 hours

[Hawkeye]

I hope the wetter nature of this snow will help to prevent the ratio-killing wind-swept compaction of previous bigger storms.

[gosaints]

If models hold its grandads bluff at daybreak.

[Money]

RGEM

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019021112&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[bud2380]

RGEM - well models are in extremely good agreement for my area, but as Hawkeye said, we've been forecast for 6-8" probably 3 times this year, and 5" is my best total.  So we'll see if we finally break that 6" threshold.  

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

FWIW, the ICON continues to be the paltriest with the qpf in Iowa.

 

[james1976]

Nickle n diming my way to avg. Wouldn't be surprised if it's another 3 incher here.

[erburns18]

I feel yah Omaha is like 12 inches above average from all these 2-3 inch snows

[gosaints]

I am riding the HRW suite til the end...

[Hawkeye]

Nickle n diming my way to avg. Wouldn't be surprised if it's another 3 incher here.

 

I am at 28 inches for the season, so this storm will put me over average, which is about 31 inches.

[james1976]

35 is my season avg. I need 9 more to get there.

[bud2380]

GFS also further southeast, but still good for my area.  Weird storm.  Models looks so much different than just a couple days ago.  

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

2 inches in central Iowa?  Yikes!

[gosaints]

Ya the GFS continues to stubbornly potray a run of the mill warning storm

[Iowawx]

HRRR is still looking really good around here.

[james1976]

This can be a painful hobby