February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Geos]

A little late to the party but 18z GFS shows another foot for parts of King County through day 10.

 

Wow...

 

#letsdoit

 

Down to 36* already here. 

[MossMan]

Apparently the rest of the month is “yawn” worthy. FORKS!

[HighlandExperience]

Snow coming back into the forecast. I'm looking forward to the north winds and colder air on Sunday!

I noticed NWS mentioned a possible arctic front dropping up to an inch this Sunday.

[Cloud]

I noticed NWS mentioned a possible arctic front dropping up to an inch this Sunday.

Also worth mentioning the Seattle AFD mentions the Bellingham-Williams Lake pressure gradient -12 to -17 mb.

Not as strong as before, but this will refresh the Fraser outflow.

[Jesse]

I refuse to believe any snow forecasts more than three days out. Especially with a southerly wind.

 

Forecast temps on Feb 24-25 (when snow is expected) show Washington County above freezing. Yawn.

I would refuse to believe forecasts from your phone’s weather app period. Seems like that’s the main thing you are usually referring to.

[Jesse]

Don’t know if any places officially records 50F today, but some weather stations did in the South Sound, though that may not be official. 48F appears to be the warm spot, so i think we may have avoided 50F across W.Wa.

 

Officially for me was 47/35. Very normal.

When the warmest day in a few weeks is slightly below normal you know it’s been a cold month.

[snow_wizard]

Today was the 13th day in a row with a high of 39 or colder here. This is right up there with all the greats for duration in parts of the area. Just measured and still have 15 inches of snow.

 

I'm amazed you got through today.  You should be golden for a long time now.

[Jesse]

First time since 1989 we haven't exceeded 50 through 2/15, it appears.

That’s pretty crazy. If we make it another week (looks possible but it is indeed getting a little harder with each passing day, even in a cool pattern), we will beat that year’s record of 21 days. 1989 hit 54 on 2/22.

 

February 1956 is the king though. Only 50 for a high at PDX that entire month. They hit it twice, on the 11th and 12th.

[snow_wizard]

I noticed NWS mentioned a possible arctic front dropping up to an inch this Sunday.

 

Arctic fronts can always surprise in the snowfall department.  This one will be weak, but cold none the less.  In total it appears three Arctic fronts may occur over the next 10 days.  The final one could be really good.  We might have to watch for the second one to end up much colder than currently expected though.

[Cloud]

Arctic fronts can always surprise in the snowfall department.  This one will be weak, but cold none the less.  In total it appears three Arctic fronts may occur over the next 10 days.  The final one could be really good.  We might have to watch for the second one to end up much colder than currently expected though.

Honestly, I don’t really care that it’s weak, as long as it ushers in the cold air and lock it in place I’m happy.

[snow_wizard]

It remains to be seen if we will be able to dethrone 1884 for most wicked February in Seattle.  If the latest GFS run verifies I think we will.

[Blizzard777]

I noticed NWS mentioned a possible arctic front dropping up to an inch this Sunday.

Now this would be cool! Haven’t had and Arctic front do that in a while !

[TT-SEA]

It remains to be seen if we will be able to dethrone 1884 for most wicked February in Seattle. If the latest GFS run verifies I think we will.

I was surprised to see how gorgeous it turned starting in March of 1884. It really transitioned to nice quickly. Hoping we can see some of that as well.

[Omegaraptor]

I would refuse to believe forecasts from your phone’s weather app period. Seems like that’s the main thing you are usually referring to.

 

I'm referring to models. Specifically GFS. NOT my weather app.

 

I stopped doing that a while ago unless I specifically mentioned I was looking at Wunderground.

[snow_wizard]

Now this would be cool! Haven’t had and Arctic front do that in a while !

 

Actually the first snow event of the month was associated with an Arctic front.

[snow_wizard]

I was surprised to see how gorgeous it turned starting in March of 1884. It really transitioned to nice quickly. Hoping we can see some of that as well.

 

The you have the incredible April after March 1951.  I would love to see a decent spring for once!

[snow_wizard]

Anyway...here is the chart for Feb 1884.  I think this data is from Tacoma, but it could be Port Blakeley (across the Sound from Seattle).  Been so long since I transcribed the data.  As you can see the more extreme cold and the huge snowstorm make this one a challenge to beat.  This one already has some things going for it though.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

The you have the incredible April after March 1951. I would love to see a decent spring for once!

Lots of 70s at Snoqualmie Falls that month... some 80s too. Big diurnal swings. I think it rained 4 days in April that year.

[High Desert Mat?]

Lots of 70s at Snoqualmie Falls that month... some 80s too. Big diurnal swings. I think it rained 4 days in April that year.

Plan on a rainy spring. I mean normal for pre 1980 standards. Look out for the moss!!

[Omegaraptor]

I like the temperatures, but you lost me at "4 days of rain".

 

If a rainy spring means no wildfires, please bring it. As long as temperatures are normal. And CFS is showing warm temperatures for April, May, and June, followed by closer to normal in July/August. 2016-like pattern, I like it.

[TT-SEA]

Plan on a rainy spring. I mean normal for pre 1980 standards. Look out for the moss!!

I don't think it will be a real rainy spring or summer this year.

[TT-SEA]

I like the temperatures, but you lost me at "4 days of rain".

 

If a rainy spring means no wildfires, please bring it. As long as temperatures are normal. And CFS is showing warm temperatures for April, May, and June, followed by closer to normal in July/August. 2016-like pattern, I like it.

I don't control it. I just like the odds of really nice weather starting in March or early April this year.

 

And I also don't think it will be a bad wildfire season.

[MossMan]

I could be mistaken but I vaguely remember the arctic front in Jan 2007 dropping about 4+” ...I would be good with a repeat!

[TT-SEA]

It has not been below freezing at our house since we left on Tuesday afternoon in a frantic attempt to escape.

[ewnichols25]

It remains to be seen if we will be able to dethrone 1884 for most wicked February in Seattle.  If the latest GFS run verifies I think we will.

We won't get any single digit readings at SEA this month though. I'm pessimistic that we will ever see one again, but who knows?

[TT-SEA]

I like the temperatures, but you lost me at "4 days of rain".

 

If a rainy spring means no wildfires, please bring it. As long as temperatures are normal. And CFS is showing warm temperatures for April, May, and June, followed by closer to normal in July/August. 2016-like pattern, I like it.

 

 

Another interesting aspect of 1951 is how dry it was that summer.  

 

Here are the number of days with rain in my wet area that summer

 

June - 4 days (total of 1.38)

July - 1 day (total of .05)

August - 4 days (total of 1.81)

 

It rained on just 9 days in the entire JJA period here.     And no heat... most days were in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s here.  That was a gorgeous summer.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS kind of sucks. Oh well. Winter has to end sometime.

 

Sucks for Oregon. More snow for WA.

[MossMan]

00z GFS kind of sucks. Oh well. Winter has to end sometime.

Forks? Should I pull them out?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Forks? Should I pull them out?

 

I'll take a sharp knife. 

[Jesse]

Are we still considering doing weenie tags Fred?

[MossMan]

I'll take a sharp knife.

Canadian stinks as well? ICON?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wet snow falling here and 34 degrees. Was not expecting that tonight.

[seattleweatherguy]

36 with a dp of 32 too bad we dry out or we get snow here too

[Christensen87]

00z GFS kind of sucks. Oh well. Winter has to end sometime.

 

Sucks for Oregon. More snow for WA.

Still looking good for Puget Sound :-) and we could get some snow Wednesday too it looks like.

[snow_wizard]

I like the temperatures, but you lost me at "4 days of rain".

 

If a rainy spring means no wildfires, please bring it. As long as temperatures are normal. And CFS is showing warm temperatures for April, May, and June, followed by closer to normal in July/August. 2016-like pattern, I like it.

 

We're actually due for some much drier springs than what we've been seeing.  I like them because there is more frost.

[snow_wizard]

We won't get any single digit readings at SEA this month though. I'm pessimistic that we will ever see one again, but who knows?

 

We don't need the single digit readings to equal or top 1884.  You have to weigh everything.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just barely got to 50 today now back down to 38. I keep getting more and more intrigued by Indiana's climate.  Would be a treat to live in a spot where one could rest easy not having to worry about possibly not seeing an inch of snow for 5+ years. One day...

[snow_wizard]

I don't see any real problem with the GFS.  Typical hashing out the details.  The basic blocking theme is still there.

[snow_wizard]

Still looking good for Puget Sound :-) and we could get some snow Wednesday too it looks like.

 

It is decent for WA and the FV3 is good too.

[Jesse]

Just barely got to 50 today now back down to 38. I keep getting more and more intrigued by Indiana's climate. Would be a treat to live in a spot where one could rest easy not having to worry about possibly not seeing an inch of snow for 5+ years. One day...

Official station hit 47 today and yesterday.