February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Jesse]

It will be a Jesserific summer I have a feeling!

Pleasant with highs mostly in the 70s and some rain from time to time to keep things green? Nah, we never get that lucky anymore.

[TT-SEA]

It will be a Jesserific summer I have a feeling!

 

I have a good feeling that it will be a summer that Tim and Randy will enjoy as well.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would love to have a normal summer here with highes 70 to 75 at most. Would be awesome.

[Jesse]

I have a good feeling that it will be a summer that Tim and Randy will enjoy as well.

Fire crews better start preparing early then!

[TT-SEA]

I would love to have a normal summer here with highes 70 to 75 at most. Would be awesome.

 

 

There are very few summers that peak out at 75.     Even in the 1800s.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pleasant with highs mostly in the 70s and some rain from time to time to keep things green? Nah, we never get that lucky anymore.

To me the summers the last few years have been MISERABLE. To hot. Maybe not hot for people that just play on the water all day i guess.

[crf450ish]

To me the summers the last few years have been MISERABLE. To hot. Maybe not hot for people that just play on the water all day i guess.

Like my family and I! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've lived here for 45 years the summers never used to be that hot and the air wasn't filled with smoke.

[TT-SEA]

To me the summers the last few years have been MISERABLE. To hot. Maybe not hot for people that just play on the water all day i guess.

 

 

It does not have to be one extreme or the other.    There is a happy middle ground.   Not that we control any of it... but being on the water is a happy place for many. 

[Phil]

The 10-15 day mean on the 00Z EPS is not ice box cold. I am not sure why... but I am more optimistic about spring than before February started. I think this extreme blocking might show another side soon. Could be just snow delusion caused by frantically digging out of 3 feet of snow and giving up on even making our flight out... and now happily being a little sun burnt and feeling refreshed.

 

 

You’re f**ked, my brother. The building niño might mask it this year, but as far as the system state is concerned, the tide is almost certainly changing now. Can see it clearly in the IPWP/annular mode structure. At long last.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It does not have to be one extreme or the other.    There is a happy middle ground.   Not that we control any of it... but being on the water is a happy place for many. 

The hot weather is your fault.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Not too much lowland snow south of Everett through next Saturday.    The ECMWF tends to be too aggressive with the gray shading... often ends up being just non-accumulating snow in the lowlands with marginal temps.   

 

[TT-SEA]

You’re f**ked, my brother. The building niño might mask it this year, but as far as the system state is concerned, the tide is almost certainly changing now. Can see it clearly in the IPWP/annular mode structure. At long last.

 

 

You are a troll.   I don't want 100-degree heat all summer either but its more fun for some on here to pretend I do.   

 

You will always over-dramatize long range stuff for maximum trolling opportunity.     Its a weakness of yours.  

[Jesse]

When does it show the snow falling down here?

[TT-SEA]

When does it show the snow falling down here?

Let me check.

[MossMan]

Not too much lowland snow south of Everett through next Saturday. The ECMWF tends to be too aggressive with the gray shading... often ends up being just non-accumulating snow in the lowlands with marginal temps.

 

My area has been slowly increasing with amounts...nice!

[Jesse]

You are a troll. I don't want 100-degree heat all summer either but its more fun for some on here to pretend I do.

 

You will always over-dramatize long range stuff for maximum trolling opportunity. Its a weakness of yours.

He is definitely trolling, but you know as well as anyone that we can’t continue the string of record hot (perfect) summers forever. And it probably makes you a little nervous knowing the other shoe will drop at some point. We are pretty due for a 2010 or 2012 redux or something along those lines over the next few years. I guess whether or not we actually get one is another story, but the possibility will always haunt you.

[Jesse]

Let me check.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

For Portland there is no single big period.   There is a little snow next Wednesday morning and then next Friday night and Saturday morning.  

[Katzen]

Currently 45° and still have quite a bit of snow, it really hasn't rained hard here since the snow stopped falling, mostly very light rain

 

 

 

[Phil]

You are a troll. I don't want 100-degree heat all summer either but its more fun for some on here to pretend I do.

 

You will always over-dramatize long range stuff for maximum trolling opportunity. Its a weakness of yours.

Relax, I was kidding(ish) with the first sentence. No need to fret, it’s just molecules vibrating and bouncing around.

 

As for the weather pattern, the background state of the last 5-6 years will soon be a thing of the past. I’m relatively confident of that part, for what little it’s worth (I’m sure it feels belated/like a long time coming).

[Phil]

He is definitely trolling, but you know as well as anyone that we can’t continue the string of record hot (perfect) summers forever. And it probably makes you a little nervous knowing the other shoe will drop at some point. We are pretty due for a 2010 or 2012 redux or something along those lines over the next few years. I guess whether or not we actually get one is another story, but the possibility will always haunt you.

I can’t wait for that summer. Just to see if Tim can handle it or not.

[Phil]

No offense Tim. I do like you. But you’ve been spoiled rotten year after year since 2013. Everything has gone your way, so miraculously that sometimes I do wonder if you’re doing some sort of dark magic ritual to control the pattern.

 

Time for the karmic scale to rebalance.

[TT-SEA]

No offense Tim. I do like you. But you’ve been spoiled rotten year after year since 2013. Everything has gone your way. Time for the karmic scale to rebalance.

 

 

Just shut up.    I don't care for $500 per month water bills and thick smoke.     I hated last August.   

 

Side note... I have enjoyed this winter WAY more than the last 5 winters even with a huge windstorm and insane snow.     Much more variety and a normal number of dry days for our area... and not just endless rain.  

[Jesse]

Pretty solidly cold 12z Euro run.

[Farmboy]

Some people might be happier living in caves for the summer with a little moisture dripping from the ceilings. Stay cool the natural way!

[TT-SEA]

Some people might be happier living in caves for the summer with a little moisture dripping from the ceilings. Stay cool the natural way!

Sort of like a bat?

[BLI snowman]

Pretty solidly cold 12z Euro run.

 

Backdoor blast at the end. Lines up with the other models.

[Jesse]

No offense Tim. I do like you. But you’ve been spoiled rotten year after year since 2013. Everything has gone your way, so miraculously that sometimes I do wonder if you’re doing some sort of dark magic ritual to control the pattern.

 

Time for the karmic scale to rebalance.

So much TROOF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was a bit skeptical about the valley hitting 50 today, but I guess this time of year south wind and sunbreaks are going to overcome a fairly cool upper level airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was always shoveling when I was a kid and loved it.    I would always have the driveway cleared by 6 a.m. when my dad would leave for work even at 8 or 9 years old.     I did not want any car tracks before the driveway was cleared because you could not get down to the pavement when that happened.  

 

One of my sons is the same... he was getting mad at me for using the snowblower during the first couple storms because he wanted to shovel and make bigger snowbanks.    He gave up on that idea on Tuesday and he used the snowblower himself several times because it was just too deep.  

 

Character building. That son is going to be bailing out the other for the rest of his life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Backdoor blast at the end. Lines up with the other models.

 

Seems like pretty solid model agreement over the next 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

So much TROOF.

BS.

 

You have just hated it and since I like nice summers it's easy to personify nature in me... since nature does not give sh*t about any of our desires or respond to trolling.

 

Over-exaggerations about people's preferences is a hallmark of this forum. We all do it. You are big time offender as well.

 

I would love an entire summer of 75-82 with a good rain once a week. You would love that as well. Go figure!

[TT-SEA]

Character building. That son is going to be bailing out the other for the rest of his life.

No doubt. He is also finishing up his Eagle Scout now. Tough kid who loves challenges.

 

He just rented a surf board and is heading out with the locals.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Pretty solidly cold 12z Euro run.

Last nights Euro weeklies were much below to below normal all the way through mid March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next Friday is cold on the EURO.

 

SEA: 38/30

PDX: 36/26

SLE: 37/24

EUG: 43/23

[TT-SEA]

Last nights Euro weeklies were much below to below normal all the way through mid March.

But its much more progressive after day 10 or so... a vastly different pattern with alternating ridges and troughs and not just cold locked into the West.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mean temps per EURO guidance 16th-25th.

 

PDX: 36.2

EUG: 36.3

SLE: 35.8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But its much more progressive after day 10 or so... a vastly different pattern with alternating ridges and troughs and not just cold locked into the West.

 

That sounds nice.