GDR Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Des Moines jackzone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Every model has me out of it except the 18z NAM. Way to keep the fight alive, little buddy. Onward we go. Lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 La Crosse throws out watches. They tend to issue early for high impact weekend events and it doesnt bother them if they end up missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wow, 12z GFS is active. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 GRR has issued a Watch for Sunday for less than 3" of snow on the backside. 3 DAYS in ADVANCE!! They are taking the winds/potential rap around LEHS seriously and issued it to warn people early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Point forecast calling 1-3" here now Iconic icon blasts Lincoln/omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 MPX just upped the point here. 1-2” for Friday night and 3-7” for Saturday night. Wonder if they’ll pop a watch. Something tells me no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 WSW issued by DMX ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...Heavy wintry mixed precipitation Saturday eveningchanging over to all snow Saturday night is possible. Areas ofblowing snow are possible late Saturday night through Sunday.Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, locally higheramounts possible in a narrow band of snow that is expected todevelop. Ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Windscould gust as high as 50 mph.* WHERE...Southwest, central and northeast Iowa.* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchyblowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to near zeroat times, especially in rural areas. Gusty winds and icing couldbring down tree branches and power lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wpc is keeping the really heavy stuff to the South. I'm going to guess 3-6 with alot of sleet to start off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 MPX just upped the point here. 1-2” for Friday night and 3-7” for Saturday night. Wonder if they’ll pop a watch. Something tells me no.Our already narrow street is seemingly shrinking by the day. I don't know where the plows would put another 4-9". I think Minneapolis/St. Paul will be implementing some parking restrictions here after this next round, if not sooner. It's been quite some time since I remember them doing that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Our already narrow street is seemingly shrinking by the day. I don't know where the plows would put another 4-9". I think Minneapolis/St. Paul will be implementing some parking restrictions here after this next round, if not sooner. It's been quite some time since I remember them doing that. I hear ya. It’s getting tough to navigate by car in some areas. MNDot had the heavy duty snow removal equip along the interstate earlier. They were throwing snow into the middle of the clovers by the exit ramps. Watch posted just to the south and east of the metro for 6-9”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 18z crush job at hour 54 for Nebraska. Areas off to the north and east should do really good with this run. Also looks a lot more juiced in the deformation band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 18Z GFS actually shows some -0C 850 temps ramping into the system in the rain corridor (a sign?)(( C.IA) - like it's trying to occlude a bit-- who knows/ Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Gosaints you don’t need to chase. You’re looking golden. Camp out in your driveway and drink beer during the bliz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 18z crush job at hour 54 for Nebraska. Areas off to the north and east should do really good with this run. Also looks a lot more juiced in the deformation band. still not much for Omaha/Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Gosaints you don’t need to chase. You’re looking golden. Camp out in your driveway and drink beer during the bliz.hoping for that option... Only 48 hours of model watching to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 FV3 now down to 975mb like the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Gid with watchesWinter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE346 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...Freezing drizzle to arrive tonight into Friday, then a powerfulwinter storm hits the area on Saturday through Saturdayevening... KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ041-048-049-062>064-074>077-083>087-220600-/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0001.190223T1100Z-190224T0600Z/Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Nance-Merrick-Polk-Hall-Hamilton-York-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Bellaire, Smith Center,Kensington, Mankato, Jewell, Ionia, Burr Oak, Codell, Plainville,Stockton, Osborne, Downs, Beloit, Fullerton, Genoa, Central City,Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk, Grand Island, Aurora, York,Minden, Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield,Geneva, Exeter, Fairmont, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell,Hildreth, Inavale, Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont, Bladen,Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron, and Deshler346 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significantsnow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continueto monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ Heinlein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 FV3 much juicier and bit northwest of the 12Z. Has a much bigger area with 12"+ amounts. Omaha and Lincoln riding the edge.Regular GFS also much juicier with area and amounts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 GFS zoomed in and fv3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Parallel gfs left of his. But at this range its a noise difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 12Z GFSFV3 on top and the 18Z on bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it.Wwa and they will wait until tomorrow morning. Maybe a blizzard watch but not for the amount of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 C'mon OAX, issue the watch already.... every other surrounding office has done it.doneWinter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE413 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-220615-/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0002.190223T1800Z-190225T0000Z/Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Burt-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Council Bluffs, Glenwood,Red Oak, Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah,Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Fremont, Blair, David City,Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista,Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Crete,Wilber, Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn,Pawnee City, Table Rock, and Falls City413 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches, locally heavier, and a light glaze of ice possible. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph may also produce Blizzard conditions, with near zero visibility. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest and west central Iowa. * WHEN...Heaviest snowfall Saturday afternoon and evening, with blowing snow possibly lingering into Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Area roadways may become hazardous or impassable. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds may lead to isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significantsnow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continueto monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ Albright 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 done Honestly that is surprising. :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 What is that strange color on my CWA map???? Has to be some kinda SNAFU going on here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wwa and they will wait until tomorrow morning. Maybe a blizzard watch but not for the amount of snowthey usually coordinate with surrounding offices so I figured they would issue a watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Local met put out his forecast 2-5 from Lincoln up. 5-9 south and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 they usually coordinate with surrounding offices so I figured they would issue a watchYeah I just don't see that heavy band making it here. Hope I'm wrong but we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 RGEM likes the northwest route too. Very interesting battle we have going on with the models. To anyone who can answer this; you think the snow that we have on the ground will be too crusted by the weekend to also get blown around? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 GRR has issued a Watch for Sunday for less than 3" of snow on the backside. 3 DAYS in ADVANCE!! They are taking the winds/potential rap around LEHS seriously and issued it to warn people earlyNot sure why a Watch for this as this looks to be more wind then anything else. Should be a high wind watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 RGEM likes the northwest route too. Very interesting battle we have going on with the models. To anyone who can answer this; you think the snow that we have on the ground will be too crusted by the weekend to also get blown around?I would think that would severely limit it, for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 I would think that would severely limit it, for sure.That's kind of what I figured; if only we could have avoided the warm up before we could have been talking ground blizzard conditions if you missed out on the snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 What is that strange color on my CWA map???? Has to be some kinda SNAFU going on here. 20190221 GRR headline map.PNGAs I stated before not sure why a Winter Storm Watch as it looks to more of a wind issue and thus should have been a High Wind Watch. High Wind Warning: Take Action! Sustained, strong winds with even stronger gusts are happening. Seek shelter. If you are driving, keep both hands on the wheels and slow down. NWS offices issue this product based on local criteria.High Wind Watch: Be Prepared! Sustained, strong winds are possible. Secure loose outdoor items and adjust plans as necessary so you're not caught outside. NWS offices issue this product based on local criteria. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just posted 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Hastings NWS thinks Central Nebraska will literally be split between heavier snow to the west AND to the east. FANTASTIC. That's only happened about 5 times this winter already. Getting really sick of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Hastings NWS thinks Central Nebraska will literally be split between heavier snow to the west AND to the east. FANTASTIC. That's only happened about 5 times this winter already. Getting really sick of it.Still a lot of moving pieces with this thing 48 hours out. No one should get too excited or frustrated at this point... I don't think forecasters will have a good idea on what is going to happen with this system until maybe tomorrow night at the earliest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 That's kind of what I figured; if only we could have avoided the warm up before we could have been talking ground blizzard conditions if you missed out on the snow!I think there will be enough new snow plus wind gusts of 50-60mph to blow around a lot snow either way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 I'm realllly confused what the NWS is looking at here. A Winter Storm Watch for 1-2 inches of snow and a small amount of icing? Seems like they're trying to cover their bases with the watch while also downplaying snowfall amounts. Seems the circle doesn't connect. In other words, they have absolutely no idea what's gunna happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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