2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[GDR]

Nam Explodes on Central Iowa

[GDR]

I think sewer City will be in a great position

[GDR]

Also known as Sioux City

[GDR]

I wonder what the Lazek man thinks of the latest model runs?

[gosaints]

This is your blizzard. I’ll take the scraps. Not expecting a direct hit here.

I dunno those are some serious dynamics at play

[East Dubzz]

Feel like the GFS has been crazy consistent with this storm.

[bud2380]

Someone is going to bust on this thing for sure as that gradient will be tight.  

[East Dubzz]

Is the GFS showing some above 32 degree snow? Maybe I’m looking at the sounding wrong, but that’s what it seems like.

[GDR]

GFS is showing a Ton of rain before it switches over for a lot. It’s hard telling if the GFS is right or not because it was very consistent but pooh-poohed at the end with the last system

[Grizzcoat]

Is the GFS showing some above 32 degree snow? Maybe I’m looking at the sounding wrong, but that’s what it seems like.

Very possible. Some of DSM biggest snows (Super Bowl of 16'?) the temp never went below 33-34 until after the snow event.(remember it's the 2M temp- not the ground temp). What is more important is the 850 temp- and even the 900MB temp. As DMX mentioned in their AFD- they don't think any model can handle this much dynamics. Gonna be a now cast.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am wondering if NWS Hastings may issue a winter storm watch this afternoon following the Euro run?  The NAM right now is the one way south model.

[gosaints]

Is the GFS showing some above 32 degree snow? Maybe I’m looking at the sounding wrong, but that’s what it seems like.

Been there done that.  March around here has featured many storms at 33-35 degrees with heavy snow

[Bryan1117]

This system is going to be fun to watch as it evolves and explodes over Iowa and Minnesota. I am expecting anything from a rain storm to a blizzard here in Omaha on Saturday/Saturday night.

 

We have to go into this one with low expectations, however someone is going to get absolutely pummeled around here by this thing!

[james1976]

I like how honest and detailed that DMX afd is. I would hate to be a forecaster with this one.

[Grizzcoat]

UKie seems NW...

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie at HR 72 on precip map BURIES / CRIPPLES / SHUTS DOWN - western WI and E Central MN-  even N - NW IA.

[East Dubzz]

UKie seems NW...

Definitely is.

[CentralNebWeather]

I would think Ukie would be good for Nebraska as it goes over St. Joe. Missouri.  Just saw precip. maps.  Yes it looks good for Northern Kansas, Nebraska, into Western Iowa.  Not sure what is rain, mix, or snow though.

[gosaints]

Staking out viable locations for viewing pleasure between my backyard to MSP one wat and platteville wi the other way

[jcwxguy]

Ukie

[CentralNebWeather]

Point forecast has bumped me up to 5-8" with 40 MPH winds with higher gusts Saturday.  That would be nice.

[St Paul Storm]

Staking out viable locations for viewing pleasure between my backyard to MSP one wat and platteville wi the other way

Nice. Just don’t get caught out there in no man’s land. Could get ugly really fast in those rural areas.

[gosaints]

MSP would be an overnighter for sure

[gabel23]

Ukie

Man that's nice! What's the thermals like JC???

[CentralNebWeather]

Many basketball games in Nebraska Saturday.  Many with state tournament berths on the line.  Wonder if they get moved up or bumped back?  Tough winter for sure.

[Minny_Weather]

Man that's nice! What's the thermals like JC???

Can't see thermals on Ukie. At least not the site I use.

[gabel23]

Many basketball games in Nebraska Saturday.  Many with state tournament berths on the line.  Wonder if they get moved up or bumped back?  Tough winter for sure.

We play tonight for a chance at a substate game. I would think they would move them to Monday; which they used to be anyway! 

[gabel23]

Can't see thermals on Ukie. At least not the site I use.

Just glad to see it move back to the northwest! Hopefully this thing can drag in colder air so we all can get buried by this thing. 

[Stormhunter87]

Wow that is a solid run for us on the ukie. Thermals like always for these storms will be the thing to watch but dam.

[GDR]

Wow that’s a ton of rain in Iowa. Hopefully flooding won’t be an issue

[CentralNebWeather]

We play tonight for a chance at a substate game. I would think they would move them to Monday; which they used to be anyway! 

That's right, I forgot that girls state bb is next weekend and boys is not until the weekend after that in March.  You would not have any issues with getting a game moved back to Monday.  

[Stacsh]

Euro stronger at 72. 

[Grizzcoat]

Just W of DSM- 12Z EURO

 

-SAT 06Z 23-FEB   0.8     2.4    1018      85      95    0.05     560     546   
SAT 12Z 23-FEB   0.8     3.9    1014      93      60    0.07     557     546   
SAT 18Z 23-FEB   0.8     3.7    1009      94      94    0.06     554     547   
SUN 00Z 24-FEB   0.2     0.0     998      94      97    0.37     542     544   
SUN 06Z 24-FEB  -2.8    -5.3    1000      90      95    0.65     535     535   
SUN 12Z 24-FEB  -6.9    -6.4    1012      75       8    0.06     535     525

[St Paul Storm]

Bombogenesis on the 12z King. 975mb. Jesus.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Goodland KS. says winds could gust over 55 MPH and if the snow or sleet is heavy there could be power outages.  Urges people to stay up to date with forecast and postpone plans on Saturday if possible.

[hlcater]

12z Euro would likely require high wind warnings for much of Iowa on Sunday. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

OMA gets Creamed as much does W.IA-- -

 

SAT 00Z 23-FEB  -2.6     1.7    1021      80      84    0.01     559     543   
SAT 06Z 23-FEB   0.5     1.4    1017      88      83    0.17     558     544   
SAT 12Z 23-FEB   0.5     2.0    1013      95      44    0.02     555     545   
SAT 18Z 23-FEB   0.6     0.9    1008      95      92    0.08     550     544   
SUN 00Z 24-FEB  -2.8    -3.4    1002      93     101    0.45     541     540   
SUN 06Z 24-FEB  -5.5    -5.5    1010      79      46    0.37     538     530   
SUN 12Z 24-FEB  -6.3    -6.7    1018      75      32    0.00     538     523

[gosaints]

LOL worthy

 

[gosaints]

12z Euro would likely require high wind warnings for much of Iowa on Sunday. 70kts at 850mb with strong CAA taking place. Assuming that mixes down relatively well, could easily see gusts over 60 and maybe even 70mph. 

 

This storm has the potential impacts far from the areas of greatest snow fall

[jcwxguy]

Euro