March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 35F w mostly cloudy skies.

[hlcater]

I was not there for the snowfall. So I’ll probably just do 2.5 or thereabouts.

[Tom]

First off, I'd like to express my sympathy to everyone out in NE who are being effected by the historic flooding.  I've been monitoring what has been ongoing in your state and its heartbreaking seeing the destruction of the floods/ice flows.  The loss of life is never easy and that also goes for the poor animals as well.  I think your state has the only members on this Sub that are in ground zero of these floods.  Has anyone else been directly effected by the floods?  Just curious.

 

Meantime, Spring officially begins this week and boy does this 7-day look better....

 

[Niko]

Currently at 23F w a partly cloudy skies.  My extended looks awesome.

 

 

Btw: Still have some residual snow piles around, but hopefully, they will be gone soon.

[Niko]

First off, I'd like to express my sympathy to everyone out in NE who are being effected by the historic flooding.  I've been monitoring what has been ongoing in your state and its heartbreaking seeing the destruction of the floods/ice flows.  The loss of life is never easy and that also goes for the poor animals as well.  I think your state has the only members on this Sub that are in ground zero of these floods.  Has anyone else been directly effected by the floods?  Just curious.

 

Meantime, Spring officially begins this week and boy does this 7-day look better....

 

Its very unfortunate for those folks out in NE suffering these floods. Hopefully, lives are being saved and not lost. I have a friend who lives there and told me that the situation is horrible.

 

 

Btw: Your extended looks splendid!

[Andie]

The flooding is so hard to witness. These big floods hit after late winter snow storms and I can not imaging the struggle and heartache. Midwesterners are certainly the hardiest and perhaps the best of America. My Dad was born in Kansas and lived there in his formative years. He was rock solid and we need more like him today.

 

We'll have bright sunny days. High 70 and lows around 40.

Gorgeous weather that makes you want to get out there and do Spring things. Enjoy guys.

[East Dubzz]

Dang, the golf courses may be ready to go shortly after this week. Wouldn’t be surprised if they let us go out this weekend, actually. Doubt they allow golf carts yet, but I’m guessing the course will be good enough to allow people to walk it.

[westMJim]

Not only are we gaining daylight at a rapid rate we are also gaining temperatures also. The average H/L today at Grand Rapids is 45/27 and by Saturday it is 48/29 and by next Monday it is 48/30. One thing to keep in mind is that there is still a lot of snow and ice to our north so anytime we have a NW or north wind it will be a cool one. Also a term we will hear a lot of for some time is “cooler by the lake” It looks like the official low at GRR last night was 20 while here at my house I dropped down to 17.

[westMJim]

Currently at 23F w a partly cloudy skies.  My extended looks awesome.

 

 

Btw: Still have some residual snow piles around, but hopefully, they will be gone soon.

The snow piles here could stick around until April. There are still piles in my front yard and the parking lot piles some are still huge. And yes there is still snow in the woods around here yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

When Nebraskans talk of bad winters, they usually go back to the Winter of 1948-1949.  I think this winter may rank towards the top with the devastation after this long, cold, snowy, icy winter.  The area I am in is not by a river or dam, (17 miles away is the Platte River and the closest lake and dam is over 25 miles away), so we haven't had those problems, but there is standing water everywhere.  I saw farm fields yesterday with lower areas that are covered by several feet of water.  Our athletic teams have only had 1 competition, an indoor track meet at UNK on Saturday.  The track is clear, but all fields, pits, etc. are still dealing with standing water and some drifts.  It is really hard to comprehend unless you see it first hand.  Nebraskans are pitching in and helping one another and hopefully there will be disaster aid from the fed. govt., as is the case in other floods, earthquakes, fires, etc. 

 

I could honestly could care less if the main stream media comes out here or not ( I stopped listening to their stuff several years ago).  Our local media is doing a tremendous job covering this, and new media is honestly what people are moving towards anyway.   

[Niko]

The snow piles here could stick around until April. There are still piles in my front yard and the parking lot piles some are still huge. And yes there is still snow in the woods around here yet.

I would not be surprised if my piles still around till early April (especially in pkg-lot areas). Unless we get a huge warm-up and hvy rains, these piles have the potential to remain put for some time.

[East Dubzz]

Just called the golf course and they’re planning to open this weekend! Man, that came way faster than I expected!

[gosaints]

Just called the golf course and they’re planning to open this weekend! Man, that came way faster than I expected!

Under pavement frost depths are 55 inches here.  Gonna be awhile til I am on the course

[gimmesnow]

Snowboarding ended for me last week, just got the bad news. This was a really crappy end of the season. Usually I get to enjoy some nice spring boarding in a t-shirt. Nothing this year.

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside...temps are still averaging BN though. Currently at 38F w a blend of sunshine & clouds. Average temps are in the mid 40s, so running a tad BN for today.

 

Btw: lots of frost this morning. It almost looked as if it had snowed.

[East Dubzz]

Under pavement frost depths are 55 inches here. Gonna be awhile til I am on the course

Wow that’s pretty wild. I’m not even sure what it is here. Ground has definitely been getting much better over the past few days, and 50s and sunny all week should help the ground quite a bit. I doubt they’ll let golf carts go out yet, but walking the course in the upper 50s on Saturday sounds amazing.

[Minny_Weather]

The lake by me is liquid around the edges for the first time since December. Also my first time not seeing ice fishers on there since about early January or so.

[Minny_Weather]

St. Paddy's day is over, not sure why OAX still has the CWA covered in green.

[Tom]

As the sun begins to rise above the horizon, it's another chilly morning with sub freezing temps (29F), but the Spring sunshine will help temps rise to near 50F over here.  The mornings are certainly looking much different as apposed to just a few weeks ago in Feb as they are brighter  with the sun much higher on the horizon.

 

Well, so much for having a chance at seeing 60F and sunshine this weekend around here as all the models are seeing a colder trend.  The 00z Euro has 40's here both days for Sat/Sun and parts of the good Ol' Mitt may have some places not getting out of the 30's on Sat!  Brrrr...the doldrums of #DelayedSpring continue in the extended.  Like I said before, I'm not enthusiastic of any sustained warmth in this pattern for the rest of the month, esp around these parts.  The Plains states have more opportunities of storms enduced warmth out ahead of systems that "Bowl" their way across the CONUS next week.  The culprit, an ominous AK/NW NAMER ridge is popping which was not advertised by some of the modeling but the Week 2 10mb GEFS Strat forecasts gave me the clue.

[Tom]

Hey Stasch, remember that LR call for a "Clipper"???  It's coming to a place near you....#Don'tDoubt...I'll continue looking for that warmth in the Long Range so you can enjoy stroller rides near the Lake with your family.

[Andie]

Just called the golf course and they’re planning to open this weekend! Man, that came way faster than I expected!

They've been out in for for 3 weeks here. Some evenings so chilly I don't know how they managed.

Die hard golfers in groups of 3 carts. I guess winter wet weather was getting to them.

I'm already collecting sliced balls in the back yard!.... "4!"

[CentralNebWeather]

34 Degrees and raining here at 7:50 AM.  Spring will come at some point.  Still some massive piles of snow and snow drifts around from this winter and the blizzard last week.  

[gosaints]

Should see a more controlled melt for the rest of this snow pack the next 6 days.  Every day at or above normal.  With a snowpack around here this time of the year thats pretty good. 

[Tom]

Gosh, if the 00z EPS is right...and I don't find any reason to doubt it, March will finish off just like it started....stormy and cold across the "heartland".  The pattern continues to cycle and storms on the horizon are lining up and the models are showing them.  It's both fascinating and intriguing to see the evolution of this Spring pattern which resembles more of a winter-like pattern.  As mentioned before, late season snows are still on the table across the Plains/Upper MW as we close out the month and into the opening days of April.  While I'm not expecting a repeat of last April, next month will open cold but the pattern is expected to "flip" Week 2 in April.  That's been my call for a couple weeks now across the MW/GL's region and I'm standing behind it.  Hope it verifies.

 

 

Wish I had better news, but I also find the behavior in the Strat is compelling, a sign that a climatic "shift" is indeed happening???  Low Solar effects???  Time will tell, but the delayed Spring seasons continue to add up in recent years.  The 06z GEFS animation below is a clear indication to look for "cold" in the extended.  #CrossPolarFlow...take a gander @PositiveNAO

[Stacsh]

Completely near average next 10 days.  depressing.  

[Stacsh]

Hey Stasch, remember that LR call for a "Clipper"???  It's coming to a place near you....#Don'tDoubt...I'll continue looking for that warmth in the Long Range so you can enjoy stroller rides near the Lake with your family.

 

Haha, yeah depressing, cold rain/mix from a clipper.  No accumulations and cool precip.  One of our cloudiest winters and spring looks to start cloudy as well.  Next big storm stays south next week, keeping it cooler around the GL's.  I'd rather have snow if it's not going to be warm.    

[Stacsh]

Also no spring break this year to Florida (Usually go every year in my 38 years of life) where it has been baking for the most part this winter.  That's the worst part lol.  

[Minny_Weather]

In a sudden turn of events I'm currently on the road to Fargo. Drove through areas that were flooded this past weekend near Blair. It's crazy to see how far from the river the water went. I'm 3 miles East of the river and still seeing some flooded fields.

[gosaints]

I cant find a below average pattern in the extended....  A day or two here or there sure 

[gosaints]

EPS 1-5

 

EPS 6-10

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm hearing stuff about a cold shot in April. I'm on the road right now so I can't look at maps but I don't think there's much Arctic air to work with to make that happen.

[CentralNebWeather]

Radar shows rain but we are now getting wet snow.  33 degrees. 

[gosaints]

I'm hearing stuff about a cold shot in April. I'm on the road right now so I can't look at maps but I don't think there's much Arctic air to work with to make that happen.

Just ride my favorite models CFSv2 weekly

[Tom]

EPS 1-5

 

EPS 6-10

 

 

These are 850's and not 2m temps as they show a different look.  There are a couple days mixed in during the Week 1-2 period with warmth but generally are trending cooler in the extended.  The  next few days are prob the most ideal before it turns active next week but you may escape the rains early next week.  I'm looking for a storm later next week in your neck of the woods.

[gosaints]

Yes I understand that those are 850's  and when we lack snow cover which there will be after this weekend they translate well to the surface around here.  We will get rain late in the weekend early next week.  Cold rain during the day above normal at night.  Overall I see above normal through the extended.  

 

Of course its only March 19th were are average daily high sits only at 41.9 and average low is 25.6

[Tom]

I'm hearing stuff about a cold shot in April. I'm on the road right now so I can't look at maps but I don't think there's much Arctic air to work with to make that happen.

Euro Weeklies paint a cold picture to end March and open April, esp out in the Plains where the coldest anomalies are centered.  Quite different than the CFSv2 weeklies.

[Tom]

Yes I understand that those are 850's  and when we lack snow cover which there will be after this weekend they translate well to the surface around here.  We will get rain late in the weekend early next week.  Cold rain during the day above normal at night.  Overall I see above normal through the extended.  

 

Of course its only March 19th were are average daily high sits only at 41.9 and average low is 25.6

Warm nights will prob skew the overall temps but what good does that do??  Day time temps still not shaping up to be Spring like just yet.

[Madtown]

looks look ike midn50's here this weekend. I'd love that!

[Tom]

I just heard some very disheartening news and there is a report that over 1 million calves may have been lost in the state of NE alone.  That is catastrophic if it is indeed true.  My goodness.  These floods will certainly have an impact on commodity prices in the near term.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just heard some very disheartening news and there is a report that over 1 million calves may have been lost in the state of NE alone.  That is catastrophic if it is indeed true.  My goodness.  These floods will certainly have an impact on commodity prices in the near term.

My brother in law has lost quite a few from the cold and blizzard conditions in the last month.  Each one lost will put a burden on the farmer and will ultimately lead to higher beef prices unfortunately.