March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The rain here has just changed over to light snow. Welcome to spring.

[gimmesnow]

Even as a winter weenie, I'm kinda in spring mode and don't care for more snow unless it's enough to break the #1 record. Then again snow may be preferred over rain for the time being with all the flooding issues. 

I agree. We're past the point of winter and this flooding is out of control and needs to stop. I got my closure with a good day of spring snowboarding. What's happening in the Nebraska dome is going to affect the whole country this summer, and not in a good way. And a lot of people are losing valuable things.

[Hawkeye]

It was a cool, underperforming day, here.  An area of low clouds moved across Iowa and held us down.  Central Iowa was held in the low to mid 30s through midday, but they surged to the low 50s.  We started well, but then stalled at 47 and fell backward.

[Andie]

Moist soils and very warm temps later in the summer is an almost lock that humidity will be high this year down south. Ya’ll are die hard Texans...I’m sure you’ll be able to handle it!

All true, but a summer with below average humidity or below average temps would be a pleasure we all deserve down here.

[Tom]

The JMA Weeklies suggesting a chilly GL's region over the next week while the Plains warm up a bit.  The warmth doesn't last long out west as troughiness sets up shop across the central CONUS and the BN temp regime comes back to close out the month.  FWIW, the CFSv2 finally flipped colder as the Euro was the first to sniff out this colder pattern.  Turns wet/active Week 2 which should last into early April.  I just have this feeling its going to be a real active Spring for a lot of us on here.  Growing concern for the ag belt to be very wet which could aggravate the farmers.

 

 

Week 1...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201903.D2012_gl2.png

 

Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201903.D2012_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201903.D2012_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...not a big signal "yet" from the JMA, but I expect the ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which should build farther west across the GL's/MW right around the 2nd week of April.  My long standing idea that any sensible warmth doesn't arrive till Week 2 in April.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201903.D2012_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201903.D2012_gl0.png

[Tom]

I wrote this post an hour ago but forgot to send it:

 

This has been an extraordinary month tracking extreme wx across our board and the way this month started out with such an anomalously frigid pattern one would think it would leave out like a Lamb, right?  Well, nature has other plans as both the LRC and modeling are suggesting a stormy/cold finish to the month. 

 

On this full day of Spring, I can hear the birds chirping as daylight begins to emerge but the wx around here is still far from my kind of Spring-like weather.  As our friends out west & south get to enjoy some delightful early Spring weather today/tomorrow, those of us near the GL's/MW are stuck in the gloomy/chilly/damp pattern.  Gosh, it's amazing how much of an impact the sunshine has on ones mood.  #MissingAZ

 

Those of you across NE/IA who are ever so close to setting new snowfall records are still in the game to add more to those stats.  The pattern setting up next week and into early April is trending more wintry.  In fact, the storm system on my calendar (30th-31st) has that look of a Plains/MW cutter. This was a powerful storm in the previous cycle, as well as, the other cycles.  Winter is not letting go just yet.

 

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

So the GFS is ummm showing snow... Lol

Edit: So is the fv3 and cmc. Of course when we have to drive across Iowa.

[gosaints]

Will be interesting to see the storm next week evolve.  GFS is quite moist while the EURO is much drier overall

[Stacsh]

Couple cool shots coming.  Looking very AN across much of the country to open April.  Things change so quickly in the pattern no one really knows though.  

[Niko]

Cloudy and foggy w temps in the 30s. Roads are wet. Hopefully, the sun will peek out this afternoon.

[Niko]

Weekend looks great w plentiful sunhine and warmer temps. Ahhh, Spring is officially here, but Ma Nature will not be cooperating next week as a batch of arctic air arrives. Lows dipping into the teens Monday nite w snowshowers around.....UGH!

[Tom]

Couple cool shots coming. Looking very AN across much of the country to open April. Things change so quickly in the pattern no one really knows though.

I assume your looking at the GFS/GEFS? Wouldn’t hold out any hope until 2nd week of April. They’ve been to warm in the extended. Starting to see some very very early signs in the Strat for the longer range that the ridge builds in our region post 6th/7th of April.

[westMJim]

With yesterdays official 0.6″ of snow fall Grand Rapids is now up to 7.4″ for March and 76.4″ for the season. Muskegon only reported a trace of snow and at Lansing it was all rain. Here at my house there was enough snow to cover the grass about a half inch the road was just wet. This has been a cold March so far with Grand Rapids being -4.8° below average, other locations Lansing -4.4, Muskegon -4.4, Detroit -4.1, Flint -4.2 and Saginaw -4.7° Here are some snow fall reports from Northern Michigan

 https://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

At Sault Ste Marie they still have 32” of snow on the ground and at Marquette it is 33”

[Niko]

As Winter has left and Spring has arrived, the Winter forecast here in Detroit Metro turned out to be BN in snowfall and AN in temps. NOAA was correct.

 

Btw: Snowpiles are still around here in SEMI. Mainly in pkg-lots and school lots.

[Stacsh]

I assume your looking at the GFS/GEFS? Wouldn’t hold out any hope until 2nd week of April. They’ve been to warm in the extended. Starting to see some very very early signs in the Strat for the longer range that the ridge builds in our region post 6th/7th of April.

 

Kind of, but more so that the storminess in the plains the next 10 days will probably see-saw temps around here.  Could see some well above days and some well below days.  Will end up probably average lol.  

[gosaints]

Not a terrible look for march around here

 

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KRST

 

Euro is probably slightly warmer

[Niko]

Currently at 40F w cloudy skies. There is even a slight WCF (37F).

[OKwx2k4]

This is like the record longest, but not really long, coldest but normal, wettest but snowless, snowiest floodingest, weird winter ever.....

... And it looks like its going into April..

 

Maybe spring comes in May this year? Like Tom wrote somewhere. There is a trend to a longer cold season and a later spring over the last few years. My location not included in that, apparently. Grinchville sucks. Lol. Short summer 2019 would be a consolation prize.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z CMC - just cuz it so ridiculous ---

[Tom]

Good Friday all!  Models are starting to show a nice surge of Spring warmth for a 2-3 day period next week Wed-Fri out ahead of a Spring cutter.  The Plains states will have temps surge into the 70's and 60's may push farther east later next Thu/Fri.  Enjoy it...bc it won't last...

 

As winter continues to hang on, the battle between the seasons grows stronger and severe wx may be a big threat later next week into the MW region.  Not only that, but a series of storm systems is expected to traverse the central CONUS as we enter April when the pattern turns very active and quite wet.  Big signals for a lot of precip across the heartland into Week 2.  Both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a lot of precip across the majority of our Sub.

 

 

[Tom]

CPC has updated their seasonal outlook and here is the look for April which pretty much fits the idea that the Plains states will continue the BN temp pattern along with plentiful precip.  Last nights Euro Weeklies have a similar look and focus the BN temps across the central CONUS with warmth trying to push west by Week 2 in April from a growing EC ridge.  

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and cold w snowshowers and moderate to hvy snow at times w temps in the 30s. All surfaces are white except the roads.....crazy!

 

NOAA:

Light to Moderate Snow will impact southeastern Michigan this   morning. * Snow accumulations of up to a couple tenths of an inch are   expected, mainly on elevated grassy surfaces between 9 AM to 11   PM. Main concern will be brief but rapid reductions to   visibility to or less than one mile. * Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. * Air temperatures will range between 34 and 38 degrees.IMPACTS... * Moderate Snow will cause reductions of visibility to or less   than one mile. There may be rapid fluctuations of visibility.

[gosaints]

That baroclinic zone next week is not looking good for flooding concerns wherever that sets up

[Niko]

Skies are clearing up now after this insane snowsquall. Hello Spring!

[Stormhunter87]

That's alot of unnecessary precipitation.

[gosaints]

That's alot of unnecessary precipitation.

Hoping it at least spares the areas where the terrible flooding has been so far

[Stormhunter87]

Hoping it at least spares the areas where the terrible flooding has been so far

Oh for sure.

[Stormy]

I just now noticed how cool it is in Chicago with a chilly breeze off the lake. A beautiful day here with temps in the 50°s and a little warmer in the plains.

[Hawkeye]

Models had trended toward today being cooler, in the upper 40s, but it has turned into the best day of the week.  We're sitting at 53.

[Minny_Weather]

Hello from Duluth, MN. Most of the snow is gone here though drifted and shaded areas still have a few inches. Got into the lower 50s yesterday, but it is cooler today. 40°F.

[Andie]

That's alot of unnecessary precipitation.

Considering North Texas got double its rainfall last year (63") I'd say the pattern isn't done with us.

[OKwx2k4]

Definitely springlike out the last few days down here. Glad to see between the bouts of rain and cool weather.

[Hawkeye]

The system late next week is still up in the air.  Models show everything from a cold front with some rain(GFS) to a wrapped up low that dumps a bunch of snow from NE into IA (Euro/Canadian).

[Tom]

00z Euro suggesting we finish off the month with a Bang...one final "share the wealth"???  I'm sure most of us are done with the snow but this potential storm could be a record setter for those of you out west that are so close towards setting new seasonal snowfall records.

 

Once we get past the opening few days of April, the signal is there that we say good bye to Winter and say hello to Sensible, Sustained, Spring-like conditions.  I hope to see Spring finally prevail as we enter the 2nd week of April.

 

 

 

 

[gosaints]

Oh if there is gonna be a storm it might as well snow. Models won't nail down the evolution much less the baro zone for days

[westMJim]

With clear skies it has now gotten down to 18° here at my house. The low so far at GRR is 23° There are still a few snow piles in my yard yet I would think they will be gone my Sunday but we shall see. The spring flowers are popping up around the yard and if you have any in your yard I am sure they are doing the same.  It still has not reached 60 or better (the last time was way back on October 14^th) here in Grand Rapids

[Minny_Weather]

That storm is pretty far South for the last week of March. Has more of a February look to it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it jump North.

[Niko]

Plentiful sunshine out there and gorgeous. Temps are nippy though, in the upper 20s currently, but making a rebound in the 40s by afternoon.

[Stacsh]

That storm is pretty far South for the last week of March. Has more of a February look to it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it jump North.

GFS is well north of the Euro.  I guess we will play the model game for one last storm?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Jesus that’s a lot of snow on the 12Z GFS. Through hour 240 and more after this. Total qpf for the full run...