April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Is the sun stronger there now than it would be here in July?

 

We can't ever get tan or sunburned here.   It has never happened to anyone.   Its impossible at our 80-degree latitude.  

[ShawniganLake]

We can't ever get tan or sunburned here. It has never happened to anyone. Its impossible at our 80-degree latitude.

People have to use olive oil just to get a little color around here.

[Omegaraptor]

You pick very specific locations and temperatures.    

 

There is a late season snowstorm and cold from Colorado to Wisconsin... and you say its cold specifically in Scottsbluff, NE.   

 

I just looked at the GFS and noticed that's where the epicenter of the snow intensity map is. Looked at the forecast and saw some impressive numbers. All of Nebraska and Colorado is seeing some impressive weather, but the heaviest stuff seems to fall in far western Nebraska.

[TT-SEA]

I just looked at the GFS and noticed that's where the epicenter of the snow intensity map is. Looked at the forecast and saw some impressive numbers. All of Nebraska and Colorado is seeing some impressive weather, but the heaviest stuff seems to fall in far western Nebraska.

 

And Wyoming, and South Dakota, and Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

 

Here is Thursday afternoon...

 

[jcmcgaffey]

That line of moisture has been stuck in the same spot along central/northern Oregon the last 24 hrs and hasn’t budged. It always leads to rainfall records when that happens.

[TT-SEA]

Is Justin still alive?   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Level 3 evacuations in the 100 year flood plain of the Row River and Coast Fork Willamette. Dorena Reservoir is full and they are now beginning to release water. Apparently the releases from Dorena will be greater than in February 1996.

 

Lane County Sheriff's Office

35 mins

Level 3 Evacuation notices issued for those in the Row River 100 yr. Floodplain and Coast Fork of the Willamette 100 yr. Floodplain

The Lane County Sheriff’s Office and Lane County Emergency Management have been monitoring river levels due to the recent heavy rains. Our number one priority is the safety of the community.

Lane County Emergency Management was notified by the US Army Corps of Engineers that water is being released from Dorena Reservoir at historic rates to avoid reservoir overflow, and the releases have already begun. Rates of flow being released from Dorena will be higher than recorded in the 1996 flood.

Evacuation notices:
Residents who live within the Row River floodplain are being placed on a Level 3 evacuation notice and should leave their homes immediately and seek higher ground. Residents who feel unsafe due to rising waters near their home should take necessary action to protect themselves.

The release of water from the Dorena Reservoir will have the most immediate impact on those in the Row River floodplain. There will be a delayed impact on the Coast Fork of the Willamette River floodplain. Those who reside in this area are also being placed on a Level 3 evacuation notice and should leave their homes immediately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene is now over 2" on the day.

 

2.16" as of 10pm. New daily record for April. 

[Requiem]

Looks like Eugene is now over 2" on the day.

The plume of moisture isn’t budging. Also, part of the reason I’ve been so “disappointed” with this is the fact that my rain gauge is broken. Shows .20 when almost all of PDX is at least at .60-.70.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The plume of moisture isn’t budging. Also, part of the reason I’ve been so “disappointed” with this is the fact that my rain gauge is broken. Shows .20 when almost all of PDX is at least at .60-.70.

 

If my arithmetic is correct I believe it is already the 7th or 8th wettest April on record at EUG. 

[TT-SEA]

If my arithmetic is correct I believe it is already the 7th or 8th wettest April on record at EUG. 

 

 

Sounds like the first half of April up here last year.

 

Of course that did not really happen up here because it did not happen down there.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the first half of April up here last year.

 

Of course that did not really happen up here because it did not happen down there.   

 

It was wet down here during the first half April last year too. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

You must be getting pummeled Andrew. Eased up here.

[Requiem]

You must be getting pummeled Andrew. Eased up here.

Yeah, not much here right now. Maybe it’ll intensify again.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Yeah, not much here right now. Maybe it’ll intensify again.

Most likely overnight into tomorrow morning says the NWS. Then maybe some late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms. April can be an interesting month. Let us hope this active pattern stays with us. No more smoke here please.

[TT-SEA]

From Mark Nelsen... maybe we can stop hearing about the drought now?  

 

The one bright spot in all this rain is the storage of water for the upcoming dry season.  I see Detroit Lake is forecast to be full or nearly full in just a few days, having risen about 30 feet in just the past week!  Another 35 feet of filling is forecast in just the next four days.  THIS is the reason reservoirs are kept low all winter and only slowly allowed to fill in the spring.  Imagine if that lake was full right now…

 

 

Of course up here we can tell you from experience that river flooding and reservoirs brimming to the top in April does not prevent a smoke-filled summer.     But its nice for Oregon to have a good starting point this year.    Anomalies do indeed even out over time.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Yes. Right now means nothing but if we can get some late spring/early summer rain then we can at least have a fighting chance. History isnt in our favor but I believe we are due.

[Timmy Supercell]

The rain sure has tried as hard as it can to avoid anything east sides. Sheesh. 

 

This is not like any pineapple I have heard of.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining heavily with 0.68" of rain already since midnight. Up to 6.41" on the month, Just over a week into the month and we have locked up above average precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene ended up with 2.34" yesterday. 

 

Up to 1.08" since midnight here. 

 

Long range was fairly ridgy on the 06z GFS, but that is an outlier against the ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Eugene ended up with 2.34" yesterday. 

 

Up to 1.08" since midnight here. 

 

Long range was fairly ridgy on the 06z GFS, but that is an outlier against the ensembles.

 

 

00Z EPS was also ridgy in the 10-15 day period.  

[TT-SEA]

No rain overnight here and its still dry out there this morning.   Looks like there is some rain to my west and east right now.

 

Just under 2 inches here on the month which is about on pace to normal.  

[TT-SEA]

If the HRRR is correct... King County is going to be quite active late this afternoon.   This looks convective to me.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z EPS was also ridgy in the 10-15 day period.  

 

What is that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I would not be surprised to see a pattern flip in a week or two. Hopefully not as extreme as what we saw last year, where a summer type pattern established by late April. 

[TT-SEA]

At this point I would not be surprised to see a pattern flip in a week or two. Hopefully not as extreme as what we saw last year, where a summer type pattern established by late April.

 

I thought the extreme rain up here last April made it feel like there would be a pattern flip to dry. The people in Oregon mocked me for that feeling because they had not experienced the record rain.

 

It is interesting that we have the same basic pattern again in the first half of April... just slightly different details. And the Midwest is going to get clobbered with snow again like last April.

[TacomaWaWx]

At this point I would not be surprised to see a pattern flip in a week or two. Hopefully not as extreme as what we saw last year, where a summer type pattern established by late April.

Thats what’s most likely going to happen. Someone mentioned it’s going to be a cooler and wetter than normal summer but there’s no way of even telling that yet in April. Every summer here the past 5 years has been hot and dry for the most part I see no reason to think why this year will be any different.

It’s hard to say but this April pattern although not as wet for Western WA this time seems similar to what happened last year.

[TT-SEA]

Thats what’s most likely going to happen. Someone mentioned it’s going to be a cooler and wetter than normal summer but there’s no way of even telling that yet in April. Every summer here the past 5 years has been hot and dry for the most part I see no reason to think why this year will be any different.

It’s hard to say but this April pattern although not as wet for Western WA this time seems similar to what happened last year.

It also makes no sense to just assume every summer will be hot and dry for no reason.

[TacomaWaWx]

It also makes no sense to just assume every summer will be hot and dry for no reason.

Every summer is dry and warm here that’s just the way it is on an average summer.

What I meant was it will probably be a regular summer, not a cool wet one. Even a regular summer here has almost no rain to start with.

[MossMan]

From Mark Nelsen... maybe we can stop hearing about the drought now?

 

The one bright spot in all this rain is the storage of water for the upcoming dry season. I see Detroit Lake is forecast to be full or nearly full in just a few days, having risen about 30 feet in just the past week! Another 35 feet of filling is forecast in just the next four days. THIS is the reason reservoirs are kept low all winter and only slowly allowed to fill in the spring. Imagine if that lake was full right now…

 

 

Of course up here we can tell you from experience that river flooding and reservoirs brimming to the top in April does not prevent a smoke-filled summer. But its nice for Oregon to have a good starting point this year. Anomalies do indeed even out over time.

I know one poster that will still flip out every time we say anything positive about a sunny warm day...Even if they have had 100” of rain in a month.

[Jesse]

From Mark Nelsen... maybe we can stop hearing about the drought now?

 

The one bright spot in all this rain is the storage of water for the upcoming dry season. I see Detroit Lake is forecast to be full or nearly full in just a few days, having risen about 30 feet in just the past week! Another 35 feet of filling is forecast in just the next four days. THIS is the reason reservoirs are kept low all winter and only slowly allowed to fill in the spring. Imagine if that lake was full right now…

 

 

Of course up here we can tell you from experience that river flooding and reservoirs brimming to the top in April does not prevent a smoke-filled summer. But its nice for Oregon to have a good starting point this year. Anomalies do indeed even out over time.

We won’t stop hearing about the drought until it is actually over. If the rain cuts off a week from now and we enter a hot summer pattern until October (looking quite likely) we will be right back to where we were last year. This pattern definitely helps and we are better off than we’d be without it, but it also needs to rain in May and June around here sometimes, unfortunately.

[Omegaraptor]

Thats what’s most likely going to happen. Someone mentioned it’s going to be a cooler and wetter than normal summer but there’s no way of even telling that yet in April. Every summer here the past 5 years has been hot and dry for the most part I see no reason to think why this year will be any different.

It’s hard to say but this April pattern although not as wet for Western WA this time seems similar to what happened last year.

Phil analyzed atmospheric and oceanic conditions for 2019 and saw the pattern being the most similar to 1997, which was a fairly average summer that had very little heat.

 

Now this doesn’t fully prove anything, but it is a start to understanding what this summer could be like. It could still be hot and dry for all we know.

[TT-SEA]

Every summer is dry and warm here that’s just the way it is on an average summer.

What I meant was it will probably be a regular summer, not a cool wet one. Even a regular summer here has almost no rain to start with.

 

 

Not every summer will be hot and dry relative to normal.      Our normal summer weather is not hot and dry.  

[Jesse]

Also worth mentioning that much of this rainy pattern has been focused to the south. The drought is still raging for the Puget Sound area, Vancouver Island, etc.

[TT-SEA]

We won’t stop hearing about the drought until it is actually over. If the rain cuts off a week from now and we enter a hot summer pattern until October (looking quite likely) we will be right back to where we were last year. This pattern definitely helps and we are better off than we’d be without it, but it also needs to rain in May and June around here sometimes, unfortunately.

 

The models go out through October?   There is no basis for saying this looks "quite likely".    

[Omegaraptor]

Not every summer will be hot and dry relative to normal.      Our normal summer weather is not hot and dry.

 

Well... the normal summer IS dry. Portland and Seattle are drier than Phoenix in July and August.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well... the normal summer IS dry. Portland and Seattle are drier than Phoenix in July and August.

Exactly. Even in a summer that’s statistically considered wetter and cooler than normal it’s still going to be very dry here overall.

[TT-SEA]

Also worth mentioning that much of this rainy pattern has been focused to the south. The drought is still raging for the Puget Sound area, Vancouver Island, etc.

 

 

 

Raging?

 

The drought map says there has been an abnormally dry period up here... not a drought.     We all know March was dry.   The drought map has to indicate the drier than normal period recently.     Does not mean much if we have a wetter than normal period coming up... that abnormally dry area on the map will be wiped out in no time.

[Jesse]

At this point I would not be surprised to see a pattern flip in a week or two. Hopefully not as extreme as what we saw last year, where a summer type pattern established by late April.

 

I don’t see any need to hit the panic button like this just yet though. Really beyond a week out we have little to know idea of what will actually happen, really it’s any man’s game as to how the rest of the spring and summer goes. Just gotta relax and ride it out.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not every summer will be hot and dry relative to normal. Our normal summer weather is not hot and dry.

Our normal weather is hot and dry...average weather in the summer is mid 70s and sun.