April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Looks like North Bend picked up .08 this afternoon with that cell.   

 

Sure has rained plenty in April... and on more days than in each of the first 3 months this year.    A streak of dry days coming up does not seem surprising at all here.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Clouds have made it as far west as Tacoma. Still a beautiful day mostly sunny currently 56 with a north breeze.

[jcmcgaffey]

I didn't really want to speculate on the cause of the collapse out of respect for the families involved and obviously Andrew since he knows one the victims personally. The AP is now reporting human error even though investigations will take months. This is completely preventable and as you said, the way the crane went down really tells me that seems to be the case and the wind gusts were not the main factor.

Ya I didn’t know them directly but know a lot of people who knew them. The union construction group is fairly tight knit and I know a lot of the Ironworkers. We have been working on the buildout while GLY has been doing the shell and core for that building. When I was in the union I spent my fair share of time up on those tower cranes and was definitely a tough/dangerous job. I used to think to myself how we are even allowed to do some of that stuff. Even climbing up as it is swaying with a load you don’t need to be tied off or anything as long as you have three points of connection one arm and two feet.

[Requiem]

Sudden gusty winds here. Not from the NE, either.

[El_Nina]

Persistent dry weather going forward into the summer blast furnace?

 

Fork em! Go AZ State!

[High Desert Mat?]

Classic domegutbuster!

You guys thought it, just didn’t say it lol.

 

I’m a second from the left kind of guy.

[Deweydog]

Interesting looking clouds this evening.

 

Not as interesting as Phil clouds but still mildly noticeable on a pathetic non-awesome totally boring level.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I didn't really want to speculate on the cause of the collapse out of respect for the families involved and obviously Andrew since he knows one the victims personally. The AP is now reporting human error even though investigations will take months. This is completely preventable and as you said, the way the crane went down really tells me that seems to be the case and the wind gusts were not the main factor. 

 

Yeah, it may have been error from some of the things I've read, and its okay to acknowledge that, even if mistakes were made it wouldn't change how I feel about Andrew and the person he was. Of course I hope it was just some random freak accident, but we are all human and make mistakes. I feel terrible for everyone involved. The families that are hurting and that poor young lady and retired man who were just driving by.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like North Bend picked up .08 this afternoon with that cell.

 

Sure has rained plenty in April... and on more days than in each of the first 3 months this year. A streak of dry days coming up does not seem surprising at all here.

 

Dry streak is already at 7 days here. Could go another 2 weeks given some of the model looks right now.

 

edit. I just noticed that January was pretty dry there. Quite a bit drier than here actually

[TT-SEA]

Dry streak is already at 7 days here. Could go another 2 weeks given some of the model looks right now.

 

edit. I just noticed that January was pretty dry there. Quite a bit drier than here actually

 

 

January and March both had more dry days than usual.    A wet April seemed very likely.   

[Phil]

Interesting looking clouds this evening.

 

Not as interesting as Phil clouds but still mildly noticeable on a pathetic non-awesome totally boring level.

Depends on what type of “clouds” you’re referring to.

[ShawniganLake]

The air was notably dry here this afternoon. 18% humidity with a dew point of 18F.

[Deweydog]

Depends on what type of “clouds” you’re referring to.

Interesting?

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Andy in Woodinville posted some cool cloud pics this evening...

 

 

[El_Nina]

Interesting?

You don't smoake?

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful morning so far today 45 here. Heading out to purdy area today to do some kayaking should be a good day for it.

[GHweatherChris]

6th frosty morning of the month!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly morning here. Got down into the 30s again.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS looked fairly warm for the next 2 weeks.    I bet there will be an extended wet period in the second half of May... at least in my area.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

[El_Nina]

Once again waking up to clear sunny skies!

[TacomaWaWx]

Just made it to cutts island from purdy. Saw some porpoises and some bald eagles on the way. Wasn’t any frost this morning in Tacoma but there was some out here when I got here this morning. Has warmed up almost 15 degrees since then. Beautiful day.

[Phil]

Tim went almost 2 weeks without posting a single EPS image when they showed troughing.

 

They flip to ridging with the coming WHEM MJO and now he’s up to 5 posts and counting. Haha.

[TT-SEA]

Tim went almost 2 weeks without posting a single EPS image when they showed troughing.

 

They flip to ridging with the coming WHEM MJO and now he’s up to 5 posts and counting. Haha.

That is not true since I have posted other EPS maps... even some that showed a jet extension coming. But I do post more about things I like... just like everyone else here.

[ShawniganLake]

Tim went almost 2 weeks without posting a single EPS image when they showed troughing.

 

They flip to ridging with the coming WHEM MJO and now he’s up to 5 posts and counting. Haha.

People post things they like. It’s not a big deal

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks nice.

[Front Ranger]

Drier than normal period started over 10 days ago for most the region. Much like last year, very wet first half of April, very dry second half.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gorgeous drive up to Salem and back.

[El_Nina]

The ground already seems like it's drying out due to the perpetual sun all the time. Definitely will have to start watering in the next week, since there is no end to the sun and dry in sight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ground already seems like it's drying out due to the perpetual sun all the time. Definitely will have to start watering in the next week, since there is no end to the sun and dry in sight.

 

Fire fuel. August is gonna suck.

[Phil]

People post things they like. It’s not a big deal

Of course. Just don’t play the fake objective card while doing so.

 

Anyway, heat lovers should enjoy the next 20-25 days..gonna be lots of ridging with forcing propagating thru the WHEM. A significant changing of the guards in the tropics right now:

 

[El_Nina]

Fire fuel. August is gonna suck.

Yea this is looking like another awful summer coming up. Even if it cools down this dry and warm start is gonna screw us. No amount of rain in June or July can make things wet enough to stop a horrible fire from happening.

[TT-SEA]

Of course. Just don’t play the fake objective card while doing so.

 

Anyway, heat lovers should enjoy the next 20-25 days..gonna be lots of ridging with forcing propagating thru the WHEM. A significant changing of the guards in the tropics right now:

 

 

 

I can objectively tell when the pattern is going to be wet and cold.  I often assume that will be the case so it rarely surprises me.    I am not sitting here assuming it will always be sunny and warm because that is what I enjoy... and saying any model that shows wet and cold is wrong because I don't like it.   I just don't post as many maps when a wet and cold pattern is obviously going to continue into the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I cannot believe how dry things are already. After last year I was hoping we'd have a respite, but with the positive ENSO I should have known better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Supercell went just north of my ex-wife's house within the past hour north of Tulsa Oklahoma. She says our daughter had to go to the storm shelter 3 times at school today.

[TT-SEA]

I cannot believe how dry things are already. After last year I was hoping we'd have a respite, but with the positive ENSO I should have known better. 

 

 

In my area... a dry first half of May is almost always offset by a wet second half of the month.    There is usually a really nice period in May at some point... looks like it will be the first part of the month this year.  

 

May was fairly dry overall here last year... but we had almost 4 inches of rain in June and it was green well into July.     The really dry part of the year is almost always a short window (notable exception in 2015).    Not something people around here worry about.  You should move north.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In my area... a dry first half of May is almost always offset by a wet second half of the month.    There is usually a really nice period in May at some point... looks like it will be the first part of the month this year.  

 

May was fairly dry overall here last year... but we had almost 4 inches of rain in June and it was green well into July.     The really dry part of the year is almost always a short window (notable exception in 2015).    Not something people around here worry about.  You should move north.  

 

We only had 1/2" of rain last May and just about 1" in June. Incredibly dry. 2012 had a very dry first half of May and a wet 2nd half and a wet June. So we'll see. 

[TacomaWaWx]

A few clouds out here by purdy but in the mid 60s with a north breeze.

[El_Nina]

Not a single cloud all day. And man, that sun really zaps your energy when you're running. I'm gonna stick to evenings.

[High Desert Mat?]

Yea this is looking like another awful summer coming up. Even if it cools down this dry and warm start is gonna screw us. No amount of rain in June or July can make things wet enough to stop a horrible fire from happening.

No amount of rain?? You can’t be serious. Give me some of what you have please!!!!