Minny_Weather Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 SPC is unimpressed by tornado potential Friday, as well as severe wx potential in general Saturday. Capping is starting to be a concern for tomorrow as well, despite the otherwise awesome setup. I do think we will see a couple storms break through the cap, and I think SPC should have a 10% tornado risk instead of 5%. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 JMA weeklies are in and show the nice warmth to build across the MW/S Plains/OV and the SE over the next 2 weeks. Should bode well for those farmers who need to get crop in the ground who haven't yet in the S MW. Week 1... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png Week 2...Memorial Day weekend is favoring a warmer pattern across the Lakes and eastern Sub. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png Week 3-4.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Interesting timing tomorrow. CME going to hit when the storms are a going. Might be some extra juice for the storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Line of storms heading JUST east of here. Man, why has it been so difficult to even just get some thunderstorms around here this spring. So many near misses already this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tom Posted May 16, 2019 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Here's one of the more impressive looking shelf cloud shots.... 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 ^ badass pic right there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Already up to 75F here before 10:30am. Impressive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Already up to 77F here before 10:30am. Impressive.77 here also at 10:30 AM with a 58 dew. Had the AC running all day yesterday. Heat might have to be turned on again early next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago! Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it. We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago! Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it. We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather. So far it looks nothing like that shelf over mad town, but it’s gettinng close now so we’ll see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Any posters around the Plano,IL area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Nothing to see here people:https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1 Looks perfectly logical since we entered the phase of passing through the galactic ring in '98. Not sure how long it takes to get through tho? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Nothing to see here people:https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1Almost scared me there. Whew! Then I remembered a few simple laws of physics and everything got better.Close one. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Was there a tornado warning at some point in the LOT cwa? There’s a warning posted on weather.gov but no info. Edit: nevermind I now see the warning that they had out by Ottawa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 77 here also at 10:30 AM with a 58 dew. Had the AC running all day yesterday. Heat might have to be turned on again early next week. Yep, I had the AC on in my car at lunch. By tomorrow night I’ll have the heat and seat warmers back on. Not cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Already 82 here. A t-storm sounds good right now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 First time we’ve hit 80F here in the last 8 months. Wow that’s bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Already over 90 here, records will be smashed today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago! Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it. We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather. I’m feeling optimistic about storms in my area in the next 24 hours especially after checking the models again. I always like when a cold front stalls nearby. And I would rather be in the warm side of the front since storms often tend to take advantage of the warm juicy atmosphere, plus I’m tired of the chilly air! Need to warm up the soil so stuff can grow.The SPC also shifted the slight risk area a bit further south, just enough to include my area now.Definitely feeling summer like now with current temp at 87° with the dew point in the upper 60°s. Max dew was 71° so far today on my wx station. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Tornado touchdown near Sandwich, IL...along with 1.5" hail 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Tornado touchdown near Sandwich, IL...along with 1.5" hail That is a large tornado. Was thinking it was a result of the line but looks like it formed on the edge. Might be why it was so large. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Cedar Rapids made it up to 90 today. The forecast high was 85. I am really hoping to get some good storms around here this evening. HRRR suggests we will, but waiting to see what develops on the radar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 Got our first 90 of the season today and it wasn't even close. Still 94°F. Seems like it's a state law nowadays that we can't have a single May or September without a day of record or near-record heat. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 I also had a high of 90° today for the first time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted May 16, 2019 Report Share Posted May 16, 2019 All I can say, Tom is .....Dang!! Is this headed south? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Now some really nice looking storms getting going in central Iowa and moving east! Look right on target to get to Cedar Rapids! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Hopefully a little northward expansion is in order! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Most of those are severe warned as well though they're isolated yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Pretty sure this is the severe storm down by DeWitt, IA. Picture from Dubuque. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Now it looks like they are moving southeast. If Cedar Rapids doesn’t get anything from this, we are truly screwed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 The last pic is of the eastern storm and the other two from the western cells 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 It looks like storms could be expanding but I am still not convinced about Cedar Rapids getting anything from these storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 It looks like storms could be expanding but I am still not convinced about Cedar Rapids getting anything from these storms.You look like you’re good to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Much of this is going to miss south of Cedar Rapids. There is a lot of lightning to the west, but I'm afraid it's going to be all bark and no bite for us. All of the cells are currently warned. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Epic fail! Seriously, Cedar Rapids just can't get anything! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 This town is a joke, I don't know if I have ever seen a place get missed more often than Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 This means now we don't get any more storms tonight because we missed out and the instability is gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Hey, at least you got a storm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Iowa City is going to get crushed and we get absolutely nothing here in Cedar Rapids. The WPC rain forecast is seriously overdone. No way Cedar Rapids gets more than 0.25" with this pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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