May 2019 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

I saw this graphic regarding corn planting throughout the ag belt.  We could see the slowest start in almost 3 decades....

 

 

Here is a chart showing individual states progress...

 

This week is going to get many more acres planted.  I hope much of it gets done before cooler and wetter weather sets in again this weekend into next week. 

[james1976]

Another cloudy day with light showers. Mid 50s so far.

[Stormy]

Absolutely gorgeous outside, not a cloud to be found. Temps are still chilly though. After a frosty start this morning (30s, no frost though), temps are now in the low 40s and will recover into the 60s.

 

Btw: There is a chance that temp in SEMI hit the 80s on Sunday. Yes, I am saying, there is a chance.

Are having the opposite wx here with rain & chilly conditions currently. Looks like more interesting wx in the coming days.

We could have sunshine returning by the end of the day.

[Hawkeye]

Another cloudy day with light showers. Mid 50s so far.

 

Yep.  We get one real nice day, then it's back to cool and damp for another day.

[Stormy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6icFflWwAIWqcH.png

All 8 days are highlighted somewhere and I find it interesting that it’s the first time that all days 4-8 had a 15% or greater risk of severe probabilities!

[gabel23]

The 12z GFS is going bonkers with severe weather starting Friday and lasting a week. Areas of low pressure coming out in the central plains about every other day. We could see all modes of severe weather set-ups on multiple days: Squall line, warm front, cold front, triple point and so on......

[St Paul Storm]

71F under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow thru Friday temps 75-80F. I can finally plant my garden. After a fantastic winter, this spring has been abysmal. I haven’t even started the lawn mower yet.

[Hawkeye]

There are still major changes from run to run late this week through next week.  Today's 12z euro is much stronger with a shortwave in Canada, which holds the front farther south and leads to a much less warm upper midwest/lakes Friday and Saturday.  We've gone from low 80s both days to upper 60s to low 70s.  It's much worse north and east of here.

 

The pattern is incredibly active, especially out in the plains.  Here is the 12z euro 10-day rainfall map.

 

[Stormhunter87]

The 12z GFS is going bonkers with severe weather starting Friday and lasting a week. Areas of low pressure coming out in the central plains about every other day. We could see all modes of severe weather set-ups on multiple days: Squall line, warm front, cold front, triple point and so on......

Trying to a rent a garage at our apartment complex because of this. I don't want to try and get a mad dash for car cover with a baby.

[Stormy]

It rained 0.24" here today.

 

Here is the WPC 7 day QPF forecast. Of course it's just the WPC.

[Andie]

Yup! More rain.

[Minny_Weather]

Think I'll target the area between Kearney and Lexington on Friday. The dry line looks like it will set up around the North Platte area that afternoon, with a triple point just North of there. 

 

NAM makes this look amazing, which doesn't say much cuz NAM always blows severe wx events way out of proportion. We'll see in a couple of days.

[Hawkeye]

After today's cool temp, this is now the coldest first fourteen days of May in 52 years here in Cedar Rapids.

[Stormhunter87]

Think I'll target the area between Kearney and Lexington on Friday. The dry line looks like it will set up around the North Platte area that afternoon, with a triple point just North of there.

 

NAM makes this look amazing, which doesn't say much cuz NAM always blows severe wx events way out of proportion. We'll see in a couple of days.

My Dad's old rule for chasing in Nebraska is sit around Grand Island or south of the KS border and move from there.

[Minny_Weather]

My Dad's old rule for chasing in Nebraska is sit around Grand Island or south of the KS border and move from there.

That's generally fairly true, but in this instance it looks like the dry line will be a bit farther West than normal which is why I'm thinking Lexington.

[Stormy]

After today's cool temp, this is now the coldest first fourteen days of May in 52 years here in Cedar Rapids.

Maybe about once in a lifetime! This isn't good at all for the crop farmers because there might need to be a lot of replanting for what has been planted. Seed or seedlings sitting in chilly soils this long has a good chance of rotting or being eaten by worms! Many farmers in my area haven't planted corn or beans yet which may be just as good, but the soils are very wet and the forecast doesn't look hopeful.

I ended up with 0.25" rain yesterday then.

[St Paul Storm]

A few days ago the models showed 70s with a chance of rain this weekend. Now we’re looking at 2-4” of rain with highs possibly not reaching 50 both Sat and Sun. The Euro even lays down a good snow in C and N MN. I guess I’ll enjoy the 77 today and 81 tomorrow as I’m not sure when I’ll see it again.

[CentralNebWeather]

That's generally fairly true, but in this instance it looks like the dry line will be a bit farther West than normal which is why I'm thinking Lexington.

I am going to be very close as we are between Lexington and Kearney.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local ABC Meteorologist talking about Friday Night.  It might get very wild around here with severe weather and possibly tornadoes.  Already mentioning if you have plans at a lake or outside this weekend to have a plan in place to get to safety.  

[Minny_Weather]

[Tom]

Before we begin this active and robust SW Flow pattern, I'm in awe at how consistent the LRC has played out this season. One of the more highlight periods within the 50 day cycle is about to immerse the Sub Forum with active weather, heck, even over here in the desert SW I'm relishing in the cooler than normal temps and occasional stormy weather! After today's 100F day, it's back into the 80's for an extended period heading into Memorial Day.

 

 

Last nights 00z Euro 6-10 day 500mb forecast illustrates the dominant features of this year's pattern: 1) SE Ridge 2) Hudson Bay Vortex 3) SW Flow 4) Alaskan Ridge

 

 

[Jaycee]

 Maybe I'm wrong, but the April 2012 outbreak setup looked somewhat similar:

 

 

 

 

 

vs.

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z 3k NAM - Friday

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Whoa, don't see this everyday.

[Andie]

Yeah. Saturday the DFW Area is in the crosshairs. I’m hoping no large hail. I expect brief high winds though.

 

Anyone with an opinion on the hail capacity in No Texas??

 

In the mid 80’s today, sunny, gorgeous. Everyone stay safe.

[Jaycee]

Whoa, don't see this everyday.

 

NAM is screaming that Nebraska is the place to be for severe weather on Friday. This is going to get interesting -- no doubt someone out in the plains will get a moderate risk, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if we saw our first high risk of the year. 

[westMJim]

I was out doing some yard work and it is very  pleasant day with lots of sun and the current temperature here at my house of 72 the latest reading at GRR was 70.

[Tom]

Looks like the "Sudden Summer" idea I had in mind during the back half of the month is coming into fruition and may have some staying power.  Thankfully, the ridge of the west coast will be non existent as troughs pound western NAMER unlike recent weeks which caused the cool/cold pattern for many across the Sub.  Nearly all the models are showing an early season heat wave brewing where the SER has been so dominant.  Are we about to get a taste of what this Summer's pattern will look like???  

[gabel23]

 Maybe I'm wrong, but the April 2012 outbreak setup looked somewhat similar:

 

 

1212.JPG

 

 

 

vs.

 

 

 

1919.JPG

Ha call me crazy but I think that was the year they called off the spring game?! That was the Cantore jinx also as storms didn't stay discrete and really was a bust day. Cantore was in town of course thinking it was gonna be a big day for us......

[OmahaSnowFan]

Nothing to see here people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1

[Minny_Weather]

Nothing to see here people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1

There's a perfectly good global warming thread in this forum for this.

[Jaycee]

Ha call me crazy but I think that was the year they called off the spring game?! That was the Cantore jinx also as storms didn't stay discrete and really was a bust day. Cantore was in town of course thinking it was gonna be a big day for us......

 

Yep! That was the craziest day ever though, even though morning convection ruined it. I have a screenshot somewhere of the SPC saying strong tornadoes are likely. Strongest wording I think I've ever seen tbh!

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro for the loss. I can’t recall a later date when accumulating snow is showing on a model for mby. STOP IT.

[james1976]

Surprised how nice today turned out. 77 sunny and no wind.

[Andie]

They're talking super cells, tornados and hail for Saturday. It may be tempered some if we can get some rain ahead of this system to cool things down. But this is not what we like to hear here.

 

Year without a summer could turn out to be rather bumpy for Texas.

Will just have to watch how this stacks up.

[St Paul Storm]

Nice line of boomers near Fargo making a turn to the south. Might make it here in the early AM. It’s no MCS but it gets me excited for storm season.

[St Paul Storm]

That line of storms made it here around 2:30am. Nothing severe but the lightning was awesome. Dropped about 0.3” of rain to help my struggling grass seed. 80F today before the crash. Upper 40s to around 50F over the weekend. That sucks.

[Hawkeye]

Real nice line diving through sw Wisconsin.

[Tom]

Real nice line diving through sw Wisconsin.

1st legit squall line of the season??  I bet the towering anvils in the distance look beautiful.

[Tom]

Here are some gorgeous pics of the incoming shelf cloud near Madison, WI...