May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wtf

 

May 4-5 1999-Status?

[Phil]

May 4-5 1999-Status?

It’s possible. Lots of heavy hitters on the latest CIPS analog package.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It’s possible. Lots of heavy hitters on the latest CIPS analog package.

I look forward to some good and safe tornado vids.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

CAPE was like 6k+ j/kg with the peak of the May 99 event in OKC so it would be crazy if we saw something like that.

[TT-SEA]

Lovely afternoon in Woodinville... definitely was a summery day here.   

[Jbolin]

Stop qualifying it!

 

Let me get through this torrential rain period first.

 

It has been pretty crazy. We had some high clouds late yesterday and there might be some drizzle tomorrow. Then we get a very brief 8-day break of sunshine of warmth per the ECMWF. But it probably wont last more than a week after the end of run and then back to endless rain again some time after day 15.

Holyshit, the sarcasm in this post is "up there" with some of your greater "gems" but I honestly have never wanted to randomly punch babies in the face more than I have with this post. 

[Jbolin]

Wtf

 

SREF calibrated probs are WAY THE **** out there...

[Jbolin]

Looking at the HRRR runs for W. Texas and W/SW Oklahoma is just a new "nightmare" going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Holyshit, the sarcasm in this post is "up there" with some of your greater "gems" but I honestly have never wanted to randomly punch babies in the face more than I have with this post. 

 

 

 

It was not about me wanting it to be dry... it was about Phil over-promising rain.   

[Omegaraptor]

06z GFS does not show any hint of ridging in the 5-10 day period.

 

#NotLikeLastYear

[TT-SEA]

06z GFS does not show any hint of ridging in the 5-10 day period.

 

#NotLikeLastYear

 

 

Here was the 00Z EPS for the 5-10 day period:

 

 

[Phil]

The SE-ridge this year..fookin’ nasty. Was 90/75 here yesterday afternoon..scary to see this early.

[TT-SEA]

The SE-ridge this year..fookin’ nasty. Was 90/75 here yesterday afternoon..scary to see this early.

 

 

Yeah... it seems well established already.

[Phil]

[Omegaraptor]

Here was the 00Z EPS for the 5-10 day period:

 

 

CA can’t catch a break, can’t they?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I lived in Oklahoma 4 years and go back frequently. Have never seen a tornado there. Typically the bigger storms are OKC and points west and then a bit east of where I lived. 

 

I would love to see a distant tornado on the plains out in Western Oklahoma or Kansas. A rain wrapped non-visible tornado in E. Oklahoma would be a nightmare though. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I lived in Oklahoma 4 years and go back frequently. Have never seen a tornado there. Typically the bigger storms are OKC and points west and then a bit east of where I lived.

 

I would love to see a distant tornado on the plains out in Western Oklahoma or Kansas. A rain wrapped non-visible tornado in E. Oklahoma would be a nightmare though.

I’ve personally never witnessed a tornado myself but I have seen some severe weather conditions when I’ve been to Texas. Would be cool to see a tornado once as long as it’s a safe distance away and not raking up homes.

Tacoma has an interesting history of water spouts. My grandpa has pictures of when a waterspout went over commencement bay back in the 60s when grandparents lived in Dash point. Few years ago at point defiance there was a minor water spout while my brother was down there since his school was there.

[Phil]

OMG @ the 4km NAM soundings over Oklahoma for this afternoon/evening. Some of the scariest I can remember seeing. I’m so glad I don’t live there.

 

And if that’s not bad enough, look tornado climo for the month of May. Fits like a glove.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS continues its trend towards troughing for the weekend...  FV3 is a little better but seems to be trending that way as well.

 

12Z GEM was much more ridgy than its 00Z run... but its probably not meaningful because its the GEM.

 

I suspect the GFS is probably going to end up right this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS continues its trend towards troughing for the weekend...  FV3 is a little better but seems to be trending that way as well.

 

12Z GEM was much more ridgy than its 00Z run... but its probably not meaningful because its the GEM.

 

I suspect the GFS is probably going to end up right this time.

 

Saturday looks like some light rain. Sunday looks nice. Baby's 2nd birthday party is Sunday so sunshine would be appreciated, though she doesn't care. She'll get out there in the rain and mud. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been really wet in SE Oregon this year. I noticed Burns was at about 11.5" on the rain year, well above average. Every little bit counts in the desert.

[Omegaraptor]

12Z GFS continues its trend towards troughing for the weekend...  FV3 is a little better but seems to be trending that way as well.

 

12Z GEM was much more ridgy than its 00Z run... but its probably not meaningful because its the GEM.

 

I suspect the GFS is probably going to end up right this time.

Blues replaced oranges.

 

#PhilWasRight

[Omegaraptor]

https://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

Oregon Department of Agriculture is predicting a cooler than normal summer this year.

 

Record breaking rains in CA, tons of records broken across the West since the year started, and now we’re predicting a cool summer. Is the 6-year reign of warmth finally coming to an end?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am comfortable with the 12z GFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy but dry right now but that will change later.

[Front Ranger]

Blues replaced oranges.

 

#PhilWasRight

Phil was actually forecasting a period of ridging towards the end of the month. Followed by troughing returning in early June.

 

Phil says a lot of things though, so it's hard to keep track.

[Jesse]

Hitting some thunder and lightning near Hanover, Germany at the moment. The landscape is very green here, with small hamlets nestled in the hills. Very scenic train ride from Frankfurt to Berlin.

[Phil]

Phil was actually forecasting a period of ridging towards the end of the month. Followed by troughing returning in early June.

 

Phil says a lot of things though, so it's hard to keep track.

What the heck? I never said that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully some great but safe tornado vids today. Maybe some fat wedges.

[Phil]

Flatiron certainly has the most active imagination on the forum. With all these things I’ve supposedly said, you could write a thriller with a dozen sequels.

 

Next thing you know he’ll claim that I predicted the moon will crash into the Pacific and open a temporary wormhole into a dimension where the game of thrones is real.

[Front Ranger]

What the heck? I never said that.

 

Yeah, you did. You said it wouldn't be sustained for long, though.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF not backing down either... continues to look much like the EPS runs.   The ULL slides through on Friday and its warming up and turning sunny by Saturday.   The GFS is on its own by Sunday with the FV3, GEM, and ICON looking more like the ECMWF solution.   And the ECMWF is much warmer and more ridgy for next week compared to the GFS.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run by a couple degrees for Sunday... and similar on Monday.

 

Here is Sunday... Shawnigan Lake and Bellingham might be the hot spots that day.  

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

OMG @ the 4km NAM soundings over Oklahoma for this afternoon/evening. Some of the scariest I can remember seeing. I’m so glad I don’t live there.

 

And if that’s not bad enough, look tornado climo for the month of May. Fits like a glove.

 

 

That's crazy. Hopefully everybody can stay safe throughout this storm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF not backing down either... continues to look much like the EPS runs. The ULL slides through on Friday and its warming up and turning sunny by Saturday. The GFS is on its own by Sunday with the FV3, GEM, and ICON looking more like the ECMWF solution. And the ECMWF is much warmer and more ridgy for next week compared to the GFS.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run by a couple degrees for Sunday... and similar on Monday.

 

Here is Sunday... Shawnigan Lake and Bellingham might be the hot spots that day.

 

Looking nice.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

https://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

Oregon Department of Agriculture is predicting a cooler than normal summer this year.

 

Record breaking rains in CA, tons of records broken across the West since the year started, and now we’re predicting a cool summer. Is the 6-year reign of warmth finally coming to an end?

I like their forecast a lot and in agreement with them that the 6 year reign of warmth will finally end but I think we'll see right around normal departures when it's all said and done.

 

They have July as the least coolest which I agree with but my forecast calls for warmer than normal departures for July. Basically summer will peak in July IMHO.

[Front Ranger]

Is this cold May being caused by sudden stratospheric warming again?

It's been a warm May in the PNW. Very warm for some areas. Different than your area.

 

[Farmboy]

The 00z GFS brought back the ULL. Hopefully it stays put this time.

And what effect would that have on you personally, being in Maryland at the moment?

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron certainly has the most active imagination on the forum. With all these things I’ve supposedly said, you could write a thriller with a dozen sequels.

 

Next thing you know he’ll claim that I predicted the moon will crash into the Pacific and open a temporary wormhole into a dimension where the game of thrones is real.

I give you credit when you make a good call, as I did when you nailed the timing (just not main impact area) of the jet extension this month.

 

But I can also recognize when you waffle on your calls, as you increasingly have in the past week or so, for periods beyond the jet extension.

 

It doesn't have to be one or the other.

[Phil]

Yeah, you did. You said it wouldn't be sustained for long, though.

Nope. You probably misread something. I never said anything like that.

 

It might happen that way regardless, given the speedier MJO/CCKW return thru the WHEM. But I didn’t actually forecast it.

[Phil]

I give you credit when you make a good call, as I did when you nailed the timing (just not main impact area) of the jet extension this month.

 

But I can also recognize when you waffle on your calls, as you increasingly have in the past week or so, for periods beyond the jet extension.

 

It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Please quote the post(s). I don’t recall saying anything like what you describe, but if you have evidence to the contrary, please cite it. Now.

 

Otherwise, put a sock it it. Thanks.