May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Kids come over tomorrow for one night and of course it’s going to rain the whole time. Don’t get me wrong, we need it but we have not had a single weekend without rain since they started coming down. Maybe by August we can go to the park without getting rained on.

 

Looking like a “summer starts on July 5” year.

[Jesse]

Ugh.

[Front Ranger]

Kids come over tomorrow for one night and of course it’s going to rain the whole time. Don’t get me wrong, we need it but we have not had a single weekend without rain since they started coming down. Maybe by August we can go to the park without getting rained on.

 

Looking like a “summer starts on July 5” year.

Maps.

[Deweydog]

Mats.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Faps

[Phil]

Now the 00z ECMWF has caved with the ULL solution.

[Jesse]

Now the 00z ECMWF has caved with the ULL solution.

I could have told you that just based on who isn’t posting.

[Phil]

I could have told you that just based on who isn’t posting.

The radio silence from North Bend is deafening this evening.

[TT-SEA]

Now the 00z ECMWF has caved with the ULL solution.

 

 

Just got home and looked at the models.   We picked up the GFS and FV3 and lost the ECMWF.     Still not much rain with the ECMWF solution though.

 

Time will tell.     I just find it interesting to track either way.

[TT-SEA]

The radio silence from North Bend is deafening this evening.

 

 

I dominate your thoughts.    Its pretty funny.  

[TT-SEA]

And Tuesday - Friday look beautiful... so that will be nice and a big change from earlier runs.   

[Phil]

Just got home and looked at the models. We picked up the GFS and FV3 and lost the ECMWF. Still not much rain with the ECMWF solution though.

 

Time will tell. I just find it interesting to track either way.

Then again, the GFS crashes the pattern back into troughing after D10, so it’s kind of delayed-not-denied.

 

Either way, I don’t see anything that could sustain ridging for very long. The WPAC/IPWP forcing that often does it has entered into a state of dormancy. And the annular mode is negative, which also destructively interferes with western ridging in the long run.

[TT-SEA]

Then again, the GFS crashes the pattern back into troughing after D10, so it’s kind of delayed-not-denied.

Either way, I don’t see anything that could sustain ridging for very long. The WPAC/IPWP forcing that often does it has entered into a state of dormancy. And the annular mode is negative, which also destructively interferes with western ridging in the long run.

I never expected sustained ridging... but there should be plenty of nice days mixed in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly this "wet" pattern has been more of a cloudy pattern. I haven't even picked up 1" of rain yet this month.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly this "wet" pattern has been more of a cloudy pattern. I haven't even picked up 1" of rain yet this month.

 

1.75 inches at the Cedar Lake station... normal for May there is 6.48.    There is almost no way this month ends up close to normal let alone wetter than normal.

 

It has not even been that cloudy here... last May was actually cloudier.   Sun is shining again this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.75 inches at the Cedar Lake station... normal for May there is 6.48.    There is almost no way this month ends up close to normal let alone wetter than normal.

 

It has not even been that cloudy here... last May was actually cloudier.   Sun is shining again this morning.

 

It has been completely cloudy here since Monday. Last May was the warmest and driest on record. At least this May will not repeat. We maybe had 2-3 cloudy days last May.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS did not really show the ULL solution... here is Sunday:

 

 

It also showed weak ridging through the end of the run... here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

 

But I would not be surprised at all if the 12Z ECMWF shows the ULL... maybe even stronger than the 00Z run.   I never discount the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

It has been completely cloudy here since Monday. Last May was the warmest and driest on record. At least this May will not repeat. We maybe had 2-3 cloudy days last May.

 

 

Yeah... the pattern was very different last May.   This year is flipped... its been cloudier and more unsettled as you go south.   We had 14 cloudy days last May and the Cedar Lake station had 2.61 inches of rain.    It was still a very dry month compared to normal but it was much sunnier from Seattle southward.

[TacomaWaWx]

53 and cloudy here at 8am. Definitely still hoping for more rain but it doesn’t look like it’ll be coming in the month of May unless something changes. Only about 0.15-0.25” over the next 10 days here according to the gfs with about 1” for areas south of Puget Sound down through western Oregon. This May is going to be one of the driest here in the last 5-10 years up there with 15’ and 18’ unless we get an inch of rain somehow. Hopefully this diffrent pattern Over the pacific will result in us getting more rain in June than this month which has happened here a few times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... the pattern was very different last May.   This year is flipped... its been cloudier and more unsettled as you go south.   We had 14 cloudy days last May and the Cedar Lake station had 2.61 inches of rain.    It was still a very dry month compared to normal but it was much sunnier from Seattle southward.

 

We only had 0.52" last May. Pretty incredible. 0.89" so far this month so already a little more, but still could be a top 10 driest. The good news is this pattern has slowed down high elevation snow melt and brought soaking rains to the drier parts of the NW. 

[GHweatherChris]

We have had enough rain, time for summer and heat!!

 

PS- this is just an opinion, my opinion, not trying to change other people's opinion, thank you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still expecting some rain here later today. Kids will visit again in 2 weeks so maybe by then it will be dry for a weekend. Very different story than last year. South/north this time.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS back on the ULL train for next Saturday. Such a tiny little feature up near Alaska on Thursday and then blossoms over WA by Saturday.

 

FV3 does not show it at all and is ridgy for next weekend.

 

If the 12Z ECMWF still shows it then its probably going to happen... and I expect it will show it.

 

Even with the ULL on Saturday... the GFS agrees with the FV3 on warm weather again by Sunday.

[MossMan]

Lovely morning at the lake.

[Omegaraptor]

We have had enough rain, time for summer and heat!!

PS- this is just an opinion, my opinion, not trying to change other people's opinion, thank you.

It’s May 18th.

[Omegaraptor]

NAM has a storm poised to hit Washington County head-on today.

[TT-SEA]

Lovely morning at the lake.

More fun than my morning...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

NAM has a storm poised to hit Washington County head-on today.

 

Yup, has a nice cell looking to come from about Springfield-the OR/WA border.

[MossMan]

More fun than my morning...

 

That will be tomorrow’s festivities probably from sun up to sun down since I have so much to do. Ran to the lake early this morning while everyone else was still asleep (besides one of my dogs) so I could start prepping my boat and trailer for an Eastern Wa trip we are taking next month. Got to take advantage of those sleeping kids (and wife) moments to get things done when they are still so young.

[GHweatherChris]

It’s May 18th.

My point exactly!!

[TacomaWaWx]

We have had enough rain, time for summer and heat!!

 

PS- this is just an opinion, my opinion, not trying to change other people's opinion, thank you.

Well I certainly agree it’s time for some nice weather I hope we can get some rain too so we can have an even balance. I don’t necessarily like heavy constant rain either I just like to not have very dry conditions is all. Hopefully this summer can deliver on some nice weather and a bit of rain or some t-storms. I love any weather Washington gets besides temps in the upper 80s and above or smoke storms. Besides that Washington is such a beautiful place no matter what the weather. even on the rainy days!

[Jesse]

The Northwest is a gorgeous place, even when the sun is shining!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is interesting... the compact ULL is gone for next weekend.   And its warm, but with a decent amount mountain convection each day.   Highs in the 70s for the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF keeps almost all of the precip south of the Seattle area for tonight and tomorrow.   Slight shift south with each run recently.   Might be a weak band of rain falling apart as it moves through very early tomorrow morning... but tomorrow looks very nice again. 

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF keeps almost all of the precip south of the Seattle area for tonight and tomorrow. Slight shift south with each run recently. Might be a weak band of rain falling apart as it moves through very early tomorrow morning... but tomorrow looks very nice again.

Becoming a pretty dire situation.

 

How much does it show down here?

[TT-SEA]

Becoming a pretty dire situation.

 

How much does it show down here?

 

Widespread .4 to .5 from Kelso to Eugene through tomorrow evening.

[Jesse]

Widespread .4 to .5 from Kelso to Eugene.

Better than a kick in the pants.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Widespread .4 to .5 from Kelso to Eugene through tomorrow evening.

 

If only it weren't bad timing this evening.  No park for the kids.

[Front Ranger]

It has been completely cloudy here since Monday. Last May was the warmest and driest on record. At least this May will not repeat. We maybe had 2-3 cloudy days last May.

 

Per official stats, SLE had 4 cloudy days last May and 4 so far this May.

[Front Ranger]

We only had 0.52" last May. Pretty incredible. 0.89" so far this month so already a little more, but still could be a top 10 driest. The good news is this pattern has slowed down high elevation snow melt and brought soaking rains to the drier parts of the NW. 

 

WA needs the rain more than OR at this point.