May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks like its 00Z run... and just a little east of its 12Z run yesterday. It did not show much rain next week on the last couple runs.

 

The GFS was on its own with the deep trough and wet solution... it seems to have followed the ECMWF for now.

[TT-SEA]

A few sprinkles here now... but the sun is visible through the high clouds.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks virtually identical to the 00Z EPS at day 9....

 

 

 

 

After the rain event tonight... the 12Z ECMWF shows about .30 for the Seattle area (and also out here) for the rest of the run.

 

And about .50 for the Portland area.

[Front Ranger]

A few sprinkles here now... but the sun is visible through the high clouds.

 

Dreary day in Seattle. Real bummer for my friend and his girlfriend who are visiting...I told them all about the spectacular mountain/water views, which they obviously can't see right now with the visibility.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That stuff is actually really bad for your lawn long term let alone the environmental and health impacts.

 

Probly moving to Indiana in the next few yrs so I'm not too worried about it.

 

What do you recommend as some sort of alternative to getting out and pulling them up, viz, the giant ones where the roots go down like 2-3 feet?

[ShawniganLake]

That stuff is actually really bad for your lawn long term let alone the environmental and health impacts.

It hasn’t been sold up here for years. I know people get it in the US and bring it back though.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 58 degrees with on and off light rain. Probably another 0.05” so far today.

[Phil]

Probly moving to Indiana in the next few yrs so I'm not too worried about it.

 

What do you recommend as some sort of alternative to getting out and pulling them up, viz, the giant ones where the roots go down like 2-3 feet?

You’re moving to Indiana?

 

Gonna be one hell of a climate swing, brother.

[jakeinthevalley]

Probly moving to Indiana in the next few yrs so I'm not too worried about it.

 

What do you recommend as some sort of alternative to getting out and pulling them up, viz, the giant ones where the roots go down like 2-3 feet?

Use a weed burner. If you get lucky, the taproot will just smolder underground for years until it is gone. Just watch for flare ups when the weather warms up and dries out.

 

I learned about this over the last few days on this forum.

[Phil]

The fact you can watch the wavenumber spike across the WHEM on the 12z EPS mean after D10 as NH AAM drops (with forcing re-emerging in the IO) is pretty freaking awesome.

 

Doesn’t get more classic from a subseasonal standpoint either. Initiation of the Eurasian monsoonal trough should follow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks virtually identical to the 00Z EPS at day 9....

 

 

 

 

After the rain event tonight... the 12Z ECMWF shows about .30 for the Seattle area (and also out here) for the rest of the run.

 

And about .50 for the Portland area.

 

 

And the new 12Z EPS is the same as well... very good agreement and consistency.

 

[TT-SEA]

Dreary day in Seattle. Real bummer for my friend and his girlfriend who are visiting...I told them all about the spectacular mountain/water views, which they obviously can't see right now with the visibility.

 

Screenshot_32.png

 

 

Yeah... that does suck.

 

Just tell him this is the nicest day of the year so far and its has rained every single day of 2019 and he is really lucky.  

[TT-SEA]

Starting to rain at a decent clip here now and radar shows its probably going to continue the rest of the day.

 

I am really enjoying it now... knowing that there is decent chance there will not be anything significant over the next 10 days and maybe beyond.    If the ECMWF and EPS are right... this is going to be a very dry May in my area compared to average.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... that does suck.

 

Just tell him this is the nicest day of the year so far and its has rained every single day of 2019 and he is really lucky.  

 

I'm guessing the locals have already told him differently.

[TT-SEA]

I'm guessing the locals have already told him differently.

 

 

Not sure about that.   

 

Locals seem to say it rains here all the time... and would probably fail to mention that the first 2 weeks of May were basically sunny and warm.  Actually the 2nd driest start to May in history.

[TT-SEA]

My phone still says it will rain for the next 10 days straight.    That is going to be very wrong.  

[Phil]

Seems the recent dry regime has actually been more of a “wet winter/dry summer” regime in the PNW, which has led to more precip that ends up as wasted runoff in the lowlands.

 

The “driest decade” was actually the 1920s. And wow has 2011-present been insanely wet for the US east of the Rockies.

 

H/t to Brian Brettschneider.

 

[Phil]

The early 20th century droughts were really, really bad west of the Mississippi River. I know there were a few dry years in the 2010s across the SW US that had alarmists fretting about permanent droughts/etc (what else is new) but in hindsight that was just an ordinary short term drought. Heck, it probably won’t even show up in the proxy record if that’s all it was.

 

And of course rainfall east of the Mississippi is more correlated to the winter state of the NATL ITCZ/Hadley Cell (and by consequence the NAO). So the 1960s (which were super -NAO) and 2011-present (super +NAO) were insanely wet. Areas that contradicted this did so via locally enhanced summer precipitation from tropical systems and fluky training storms.

[Jesse]

The wet cold season/dry warm season phenomenon around here lately has been pretty well discussed. It beefs up annual precip totals but still doesn’t mean much in terms of summer drought, tree mortality and wildfires.

 

Those are cool maps, though. Is there a way to break them up by season?

[Phil]

We’re getting into that timeframe where the Asian summer monsoonal engine starts to ignite and can screw with the models’ handling of wavetrains eminating from the Indo-Pacific region.

 

I’d expect some model instabilities to develop any time now, if they haven’t already started. Watch ensemble spread and trends, rather than taking the averages verbatim.

[TT-SEA]

Phil's map shows that this has indeed been the wettest decade in history up here... and for the central and north Cascades and adjacent lowland areas.    As I have reported many times.

 

And yes... that does not help much if the summers are hot and dry.  

[TT-SEA]

We’re getting into that timeframe where the Asian summer monsoonal engine starts to ignite and can screw with the models’ handling of wavetrains eminating from the Indo-Pacific region.

 

I’d expect some model instabilities to develop any time now, if they haven’t already started. Watch ensemble spread and trends, rather than taking the averages verbatim.

 

 

EPS has been very consistent for the last couple weeks.    It was not so good back in April and into very early May though. 

[Phil]

The wet cold season/dry warm season phenomenon around here lately has been pretty well discussed. It beefs up annual precip totals but still doesn’t mean much in terms of summer drought, tree mortality and wildfires.

 

Those are cool maps, though. Is there a way to break them up by season?

I’ll have to ask the guy who makes them. He hasn’t done that type of analysis yet, but I’m sure he will.

[Phil]

EPS has been very consistent for the last couple weeks. It was not so good back in April and into very early May though.

The dynamic final warming event caused problems for all of the models during that time.

 

The upcoming seasonal transition into the summer monsoonal trough over the Asian continent will probably have similar consequences for the models, albeit for different physical reasons.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And the new 12Z EPS is the same as well... very good agreement and consistency.

 

Looks nice. I'm hoping we see another stretch of sunny weather.

[TT-SEA]

And just like that... my phone forecast updated and now shows sun and dry weather after Tuesday with highs in the low 70s.  

 

I am sure the ECMWF details guide that forecast.    I have seen it change within a couple hours when there is a change in the ECMWF.   Its much quicker to respond to changes in the models than the NWS.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Seems the recent dry regime has actually been more of a “wet winter/dry summer” regime in the PNW, which has led to more precip that ends up as wasted runoff in the lowlands.

 

The “driest decade” was actually the 1920s. And wow has 2011-present been insanely wet for the US east of the Rockies.

 

H/t to Brian Brettschneider.

 

That's a very interesting map. He always seems to make new and informative ones.

 

Makes sense for the PNW though. Probably more blocking during that decade in the winter with frequent dry Arctic intrusions.

[Phil]

And the new 12Z EPS is the same as well... very good agreement and consistency.

 

And yikes, that pattern doesn’t teleconnect at all (the polar block/-NAO destructively interferes with the GOA/BC ridge).

 

One of those two blocks will end up being transitory upon verification, and I think we know which one it will be.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Cant believe I missed out on all the hot Czech girl talk the other day. D****T!!

[Phil]

Looks nice. I'm hoping we see another stretch of sunny weather.

Boo. That’s a miserable pattern for me. Thank goodness it’s not stable.

[TT-SEA]

And yikes, that pattern doesn’t teleconnect at all (the polar block/-NAO destructively interferes with the GOA/BC ridge).

 

One of those two blocks will end up being transitory upon verification, and I think we know which one it will be.

 

It might end up transitory...but still well-timed.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Seems the recent dry regime has actually been more of a “wet winter/dry summer” regime in the PNW, which has led to more precip that ends up as wasted runoff in the lowlands.

 

The “driest decade” was actually the 1920s. And wow has 2011-present been insanely wet for the US east of the Rockies.

 

H/t to Brian Brettschneider.

 

Very cool map. Interesting how some of the small areas of dry periods are adjacent to wet periods like in Idaho.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cant believe I missed out on all the hot Czech girl talk the other day. D****T!!

 

Always time to re-invigorate it during our offseason.

[MossMan]

Lots of color in the yard now!

[Phil]

I haven’t seen Tim mention the 18z GFS yet. I wonder if it’s troughy? ⛈

[MossMan]

I haven’t seen Tim mention the 18z GFS yet. I wonder if it’s troughy? ⛈

He does not look at the GFS 18 or 6z’s.

[TT-SEA]

I haven’t seen Tim mention the 18z GFS yet. I wonder if it’s troughy? ⛈

 

 

Are you being serious?   I don't even look at the 18Z GFS normally.    Not too concerned about the 18Z run at 10 days out when the ECMWF and EPS are in perfect agreement.   

 

The 12Z run was very troughy after day 8... the 18Z run usually follows what the 12Z run shows.    But the 12Z GFS had a huge change (toward warmer and drier) for the middle of next week compared to previous runs as it plays catch up.    That will probably continue for the later periods.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here we go...

[TT-SEA]

Here we go...

 

 

Phil is always thinking about me.   

[Jesse]

Phil is always thinking about me.

Comes with the territory, the way you dominate this forum with your narrative. I actually think the idea of people here not constantly thinking about your opinion in relation to any and all regional weather must be scary to you.