May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Light rain in Tacoma now and 53 degrees.

[Front Ranger]

Just timing.  And even a slight shift in timing can make a big difference during the afternoon hours in terms of high temps.

 

This pattern is all about the timing, though, as you've repeatedly pointed out. The timing today is unfortunate, as last night was dry and partly cloudy for Seattle area and now most of today will be cloudy and rainy.

[TT-SEA]

This pattern is all about the timing, though, as you've repeatedly pointed out. The timing today is unfortunate, as last night was dry and partly cloudy for Seattle area and now most of today will be cloudy and rainy.

 

Today's loss is tomorrow's gain. 

[TT-SEA]

Of course the quicker exit of the main trough on the 12Z GFS opens the door for another ULL to drop in from the north by later next week.  

 

 

The GFS-FV3 showed this yesterday but now appears to much more ridgy later next week on the 12Z run.

[jcmcgaffey]

Starting a new rain streak here. I have awoken five straight mornings to rain. Should at least add a couple more days to the rain streak.

[Omegaraptor]

NAM is showing a heavy precip event in the Seattle area tonight. Hope something similar to the Portland event happens there.

[Jesse]

NAM is showing a heavy precip event in the Seattle area tonight. Hope something similar to the Portland event happens there.

 

The Portland event? You mean the band of moderate showers yesterday afternoon. Pretty run of the mill set up.

[Front Ranger]

Starting a new rain streak here. I have awoken five straight mornings to rain. Should at least add a couple more days to the rain streak.

 

 

Weird. No rain at SEA until the past couple days. And yesterday morning was dry after 5 am.

[Omegaraptor]

The Portland event? You mean the band of moderate showers yesterday afternoon. Pretty run of the mill set up.

There was a good downpour here and there were thunderstorms in far SE Portland. Not what I’d call moderate showers.

 

NAM actually shows more for Seattle today than for Portland yesterday.

 

Small stuff compared to Eastern WA, however. NAM map is just covered in yellow and red all over the eastern half of the state.

[TT-SEA]

Starting a new rain streak here. I have awoken five straight mornings to rain. Should at least add a couple more days to the rain streak.

 

Really?

 

I guess you had the marine layer on Sunday morning.  

 

It has not been raining here when I woke up on any of those days.     It started raining around mid-morning on Tuesday... that was the only day in that period that was even close.   Monday and Wednesday were sunny all morning... and it was sunny when I woke up this morning too. 

[Front Ranger]

Sunday now looks wet for the Seattle area on latest GFS.

[Jesse]

There was a good downpour here and there were thunderstorms in far SE Portland. Not what I’d call moderate showers.

 

 

You haven't been following the weather for very long if you are going to call yesterday's showers a notable event. Getting some rain was nice, but we've seen much more active downpour/thunderstorm patterns at some point just about every other May, sans last year.

[Omegaraptor]

Saturday looks interesting for my area. Temp should climb to about 70 before a storm rolls in.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday now looks wet for the Seattle area on latest GFS.

 

 

FWIW... here was the 00Z ECMWF for Sunday.

 

[Front Ranger]

Today's loss is tomorrow's gain. 

 

Maybe...several models seem to show showers lingering well into the day tomorrow.

[TacomaWaWx]

You haven't been following the weather for very long if you are going to call yesterday's showers a notable event. Getting some rain was nice, but we've seen much more active downpour/thunderstorm patterns just at some point about every other May, sans last year.

5/4/17 is the definition of impressive. So far nothing has come close this month.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS just blossoms a new trough over us for Memorial Day weekend.    The FV3 looks better.

 

The 00Z EPS and control run showed ridging.  

[Front Ranger]

FWIW... here was the 00Z ECMWF for Sunday.

 

 

Older model data, though.

[Jesse]

12Z GFS just blossoms a new trough over us for Memorial Day weekend. The FV3 looks better.

 

The 00Z EPS and control run showed ridging.

I really hope it finds a way to just pour at your house the whole weekend. Would mean an awful lot to me.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe...several models seem to show showers lingering well into the day tomorrow.

 

Here was the 00Z ECMWF from 11 a.m. - 5 p.m. tomorrow.    It has been showing this for several runs.   

 

[Jesse]

5/4/17 is the definition of impressive. So far nothing has come close this month.

Agreed, that was an awesome set up. I remember hanging out on the porch at a friend’s house and watching one thunderstorm after another roll in from the south late into the night.

[TT-SEA]

I really hope it finds a way to just pour at your house the whole weekend. Would mean an awful lot to me.

 

I hope Portland has the hottest summer on record and every tree within 50 miles of you is dead by September.    It would mean an awful lot to me.  

[Jesse]

I hope Portland has the hottest summer on record and every tree within 50 miles of you is dead by September. It would mean an awful lot to me.

We know.

 

Of course, my wish is a lot less extreme and would probably benefit your garden if anything.

[TT-SEA]

We know.

 

Of course, my wish is a lot less extreme and would probably benefit your garden if anything.

I was factually reporting what the models show... you are just being a jerk as usual.

[Jesse]

I was factually reporting what the models show... you are just being a jerk as usual.

It’s the Tim show as always, and it’s one I get tired of watching. If there was a forum with all the same elements as this one where you were completely absent you could sign me right up.

[TT-SEA]

It’s the Tim show as always, and it’s one I get tired of watching. If there was a forum with all the same elements as this one where you were completely absent you could sign me right up.

 

Great.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Agreed, that was an awesome set up. I remember hanging out on the porch at a friend’s house and watching one thunderstorm after another roll in from the south late into the night.

Yeah I’m hoping we can see something similar to that sometime this spring or summer. That was a crazy day here one of the best thunderstorms I’ve seen west of the cascades. Just hasn’t been much of any impressive convective events this spring so far. Last May there was some t-storms up here too but it happened to the east over the foothills mostly.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles trended a lot drier in the mid-long range. Really bad news.

 

Even after yesterday’s historic heavy rain event, PDX is still close to an inch below average for the month to date.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS ensembles trended a lot drier in the mid-long range. Really bad news.

 

Even after yesterday’s historic heavy rain event, PDX is still close to an inch below average for the month to date.

 

I assume this is Jesse-approved sarcasm and opinion?    

 

Not really a surprise though... the EPS has not been showing anything like what the GFS was showing for next week.   That is usually a good indication which way the models will trend.   Whether you like it or not... and it cuts both ways.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe...several models seem to show showers lingering well into the day tomorrow.

 

 

New 12Z ECMWF is also dry for most of the area for tomorrow:

 

[TT-SEA]

No timing changes for Saturday... still looks really nice.   ECMWF also runs about 3-4 degrees too cool in the warm season.   PuyallupJon might be able to rejuvenate his tan for one day.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Even after yesterday’s historic heavy rain event

Wasn’t even close to historic. Did anyone say this?

 

0.19” fell at PDX yesterday. The significant part is that it fell quickly and heavily.

[Kayla]

No timing changes for Saturday... still looks really nice.   ECMWF also runs about 3-4 degrees too cool in the warm season.   PuyallupJon might be able to rejuvenate his tan for one day.

 

I'm actually headed back to Portland on Friday-Saturday and my timing looks perfect. Meanwhile out here it's going to be pouring rain with highs in the low 40's. I'll take the warmth and dry weather this time!

[jcmcgaffey]

 

Weird. No rain at SEA until the past couple days. And yesterday morning was dry after 5 am.

Ya,

 

The attached photo has been what I have had every morning but just light rain.  Some mornings rainier than others but all have been enough to keep the ground wet.  Some days have been a heavy marine layer rain and others just passing showers but all have been more than a mist.  I really think SEA isn't reading anything because it has been so little and has been so dry recently it ends up evaporating.  I was right near SEA on one morning and was lightly raining there the entire morning but nothing was recorded at SEA.  It rains just enough to keep the ground wet/muddy.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday now looks wet for the Seattle area on latest GFS.

 

Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... similar to previous runs.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At 55F in the s valley and another nice drippy day.  Got some more weed and feed out on the grass for those goddam dandelions and thistles then will uproot those asshoIes once we have a dry slot.

 

Neighbors don't mow their lawn so it's chock full of grass pollen (I'm very allergic), huge thistles, dandelions, blackberries, and tons of other annoying weeds so I get to enjoy cleaning up their downwind mess.

[Kayla]

At 55F in the s valley and another nice drippy day.  Got some more weed and feed out on the grass then will uproot those asshoIes once we have a dry slot.

 

That stuff is actually really bad for your lawn long term let alone the environmental and health impacts.

[Front Ranger]

New 12Z ECMWF is also dry for most of the area for tomorrow:

 

Later in the day, sure.

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro has followed the GFS in washing out the mid week trough. Hopefully this means it will trend wetter for the long weekend too.

[TT-SEA]

Later in the day, sure.

 

 

Looks like precip is winding down for the Seattle area around 5 a.m. as the c-zone forms to the north.