May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Front Ranger]

That comment was in reference to June (which will have a troughy period) and the over-bullish nature of the EPS/modeling with the clown range ridging.

 

If you say so. You say a lot of different things about a lot of different time frames. Sure seemed like you were initially telling Tim that the reds his EPS was showing in the 10-15 day period (when it was still May) were going to turn to blues.

 

Impossible to track all of this stuff, which suits you just fine. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Yeah, thankfully (so far) it’s much more of a linear-type component as 500mb temperatures were a smidge warmer than forecast and there was some subsidence below 750mb.

 

Don’t want to count chickens before they hatch, but it looks like the worst case scenario was avoided today. Hopefully the same is true tomorrow.

East coast rules and west coast drools.

[Phil]

East coast rules and west coast drools.

[Phil]

If you say so. You say a lot of different things about a lot of different time frames. Sure seemed like you were initially telling Tim that the reds his EPS was showing in the 10-15 day period (when it was still May) were going to turn to blues.

 

Impossible to track all of this stuff, which suits you just fine.

Honestly, I think my brain sometimes outpaces the rate at which I can put thoughts into words and it doesn’t come off clearly.

[GHweatherChris]

This current pattern blows!

[TacomaWaWx]

This current pattern blows!

Good weather is ahead I wouldn’t be too worried about it. Hasn’t even been that rainy to start with.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw Denver could be getting some snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like my old town of Bartlesville has picked up 4.2" of rain today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cliff Mass said California should be called the Evergreen State and Washington should be called the Golden State. With so much Sierra snowfall and well below normal temperatures for so many days, I'm guessing Lake Tahoe will not warm up to anything that is swimmable for the general population anytime this summer (if there is one, meteorologically)

[Front Ranger]

Saw Denver could be getting some snow. 

 

Snowing heavily here currently, even sticking to the road.

[GHweatherChris]

Good weather is ahead I wouldn’t be too worried about it. Hasn’t even been that rainy to start with.

I was unable to take the yacht out this evening.

[GHweatherChris]

Hopefully this pattern of swinging moisture in from the south continues through winter with cold air available, snow is better than rain!

[TT-SEA]

Snowing heavily here currently, even sticking to the road.

 

 

Good Lord...

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Good Lord...

 

 

Hell yeah, better than what is happening here currently!

[Front Ranger]

Good Lord...

 

 

 

It's nuts. This is the latest I've ever seen accumulating snow here, narrowly beating out 2017, when I saw .5" on 5/19.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Large night time tornado swinging through NE Oklahoma right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing heavily here currently, even sticking to the road.

 

I drove through the storm that spawned the Greensburg Tornado in 2007. Huge t-storms in W. Kansas and then 6" of snow that night in Laramie. This system sort of reminds me of that one. And major night time tornado in NE Oklahoma right now. 

[jcmcgaffey]

It's nuts. This is the latest I've ever seen accumulating snow here, narrowly beating out 2017, when I saw .5" on 5/19.

wow. Pretty crazy anomalies for the north central US. Seems to have not stopped since the crazy February in that area up through Montana.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Delaware OK-Cherokee OK-
1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LEACH...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 1048 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Leach, moving northeast at 45 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Leach! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Same screwed up jet stream causing the record snow in the Sierras is causing the severe weather in middle of the country. It would be nice to see a pattern change sometime soon.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS just jumped aboard the ECMWF train.      ULL flies through with almost no precip on Friday and then its warm and sunny by Saturday.   Previous runs had much more energy sneaking over the top of the ridge and that morphed into a trough over us for the weekend and beyond.    

 

The FV3 is showing the same thing... finally falling in line with the EPS now that we are within 5 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to rain now here.

[TT-SEA]

Warm north and cold south by Sunday per the GFS:

 

[TT-SEA]

The same areas that have been wetter than other areas in western WA this month have been getting rain all day with that stationary band.   And its been missing SEA almost entirely.  

 

In a couple weeks... the area around SEA will be all dried out while areas just to the north and along the I-90 corridor will still be lush green.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moderate rain falling here right now. Looks like a ton of precip for the Blues and Wallowas over the next week.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The same areas that have been wetter than other areas in western WA this month have been getting rain all day with that stationary band. And its been missing SEA almost entirely.

 

In a couple weeks... the area around SEA will be all dried out while areas just to the north and along the I-90 corridor will still be lush green.

 

Just got home and it rained most of the way on the drive back today. 1/3” of rain in the bucket here today. Nice timing on the rain for me as it was basically a travel day of the long weekend.

 

Fishing was extremely good at Watch lake, maybe a little too good as it was congested with boats at times.

[jcmcgaffey]

The same areas that have been wetter than other areas in western WA this month have been getting rain all day with that stationary band. And its been missing SEA almost entirely.

 

In a couple weeks... the area around SEA will be all dried out while areas just to the north and along the I-90 corridor will still be lush green.

 

I was just going to mention that. Same continuous set up. Have another .35 in the bank and still raining pretty good. Probably going to get close to 2” here on the month. Came home from Orcas Island today and was raining pretty good up there as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold air pours into the upper midwest next week...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Some convection occurring in southern OR, clouds looked vicious before sunset and there is a possible t'storm just north of me.

 

Usually things die down after dark but seems like things are picking up looking at radar.

[Timmy Supercell]

It is loud out here. Sounds like a front in February!

[TT-SEA]

I-70 on the southwest side of Denver... I wonder if sun angle might be a problem tomorrow as we near the summer solstice.  

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Been watching SVR weather coverage all PM. Enthralling stuff.

 

Yeah I noticed a PDS was posted in Oklahoma, exactly what came of that? Wasn't able to catch a whole lot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I noticed a PDS was posted in Oklahoma, exactly what came of that? Wasn't able to catch a whole lot.

 

Kind of under performed with tornadoes. Though there was a big one in NE Oklahoma this evening, a very very rural area. Big story is the massive flooding. Huge area of 4-6" of rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up 0.08" of rain this evening. Solid.

[TT-SEA]

Picked up 0.08" of rain this evening. Solid.

 

 

Around .50 here on the day and still raining.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The same areas that have been wetter than other areas in western WA this month have been getting rain all day with that stationary band.   And its been missing SEA almost entirely.  

 

In a couple weeks... the area around SEA will be all dried out while areas just to the north and along the I-90 corridor will still be lush green.  

 

 

Approaching 0.4" on the day now, it's been raining pretty much all afternoon with that band.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Around .50 here on the day and still raining.

 

Well aren't you the cats meow.

[TT-SEA]

Well aren't you the cats meow.

Healthy 2.4 inches here in the last week and a beautiful weekend in there too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rainy here now.  Was dry most of the day.

[Phil]