May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Jesse]

No, I eventually want to purchase land in a rural area somewhere when I can pay cash for it. Somewhere with a tolerable year-round climate.

Hopefully you manage to sell enough worthless trinkets to make the dream come true!

[Phil]

Note how the colors “green” and “red” are used in society today. It’s actually an artifact of nature’s imprint on our subconscious after we learned agriculture, because we associate the color “green” with lush vegetation and sustenance (food + water).

 

It’s why we use “green” to represent surpluses and affirmation, like green traffic lights, rises in the DOW, budgetary surpluses, etc. And it’s why NOAA uses “green” when a wetter than average year or season is predicted. It’s why humans have invented so many “gods” of rain and agriculture over the millennia.

 

Vice versa with “red”. Stop signs, stock market crashes, NOAA drought maps, old sayings like “flashing red warning lights”, etc. Prolonged drought was death sentence for most humans until very recently (and still is for many in developing countries).

[TT-SEA]

Good Lord.

[Phil]

Good Lord.

You rang?

 

Seriously, what was wrong with that post? It’s accurate, not directed at you in any way, shape, or form, and hopefully it’s at least somewhat thought-provoking.

[TT-SEA]

You rang?

 

Seriously, what was wrong with that post? It’s accurate, not directed at you in any way, shape, or form, and hopefully it’s at least somewhat thought-provoking.

Sort of obvious.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA finally got back to 70... its been a long time.

 

April 1st to be exact.

[Phil]

The 12z EPS is still steady. Dry and ridgy until the primary trailing MJO axis leaves the central Pacific then things go zonal (which would be quite typical, actually).

 

WxBell only has precipitation anomalies in 7-day chunks, which sucks since the pattern switch occurs during the middle of week-2.

 

Despite the dryness during D7-9, the entire D7-14 period still presents as a wetter/zonal regime for the region.

 

[TT-SEA]

EPS has been looking wet and troughy in the 10-15 day period for 2 weeks but it never seems to move up.

 

I am sure it will eventually. A wetter pattern is inevitable.

[Phil]

EPS has been looking wet and troughy in the 10-15 day period for 2 weeks but it never seems to move up.

 

I am sure it will eventually. A wetter pattern is inevitable.

No it hasn’t. It was depicting a dry pattern for this stretch and rightfully so, since it was/is a meridional wavetrain with poor moisture draw/dateline forcing. There was not a single EPS member that predicted a wet pattern during this stretch, actually.

 

You yourself were touting the “dry cold” or whatever, which ended up being wrong due to longitudinal error of the upstream wave axis (and remember I was suspicious of those models and was predicting ridging and warmth moving into May...weather/climate models are referred to as “guidance” for a reason).

[Deweydog]

Worm out.

[TT-SEA]

No it hasn’t. It was depicting a dry pattern for this stretch and rightfully so, since it was/is a meridional wavetrain with poor moisture draw/dateline forcing. There was not a single EPS member that predicted a wet pattern during this stretch, actually. You were touting the “dry cold” or whatever..which ended up being wrong due to longitudinal error of the upstream wave axis. But it was never going to be wet.

 

IE: It was too far west with the last trough, so of course it had cold anomalies west of the cascades...and just FWIW, I was suspicious of that when I was predicting ridging for this period. Because that wasn’t your typical western trough pattern..it’s more +PNA with a vortex over the Hudson Bay as well. Not a mechanically-teleconnective conduit for troughing/cold anomalies in the PNW during the warm season.

Nope... almost every run for the last two weeks has shown a jet extension in the 10-15 day period. It just has not moved up yet. Always in that period. I can go back and pull my posts.

 

Probably will move up now.

[Farmboy]

[Omegaraptor]

The 12z EPS is still steady. Dry and ridgy until the primary trailing MJO axis leaves the central Pacific then things go zonal (which would be quite typical, actually).

 

WxBell only has precipitation anomalies in 7-day chunks, which sucks since the pattern switch occurs during the middle of week-2.

 

Despite the dryness during D7-9, the entire D7-14 period still presents as a wetter/zonal regime for the region.

 

 

Do you have any idea on how severely this jet extension could impact PNW temps and precipitation? Does it resemble the big May 2013 event at all?

[Phil]

Nope... almost every run for the last two weeks has shown a jet extension in the 10-15 day period. It just has not moved up yet. Always in that period. I can go back and pull my posts.

 

Probably will move up now.

I’ll get your posts, and the archived week-2 EPS precipitation anomaly forecasts for the last month (a new WxBell feature).

 

Give me 5-10 minutes.

[TT-SEA]

I’ll get your posts, and the archived week-2 EPS precipitation anomaly forecasts for the last month (a new WxBell feature).

 

Give me 5-10 minutes.

OK Phil.

 

In fact... a week ago you were mocking me for not posting those troughy EPS maps.

 

It just has not moved up. Still just beyond day 10 as it was a week ago.

[TT-SEA]

This did not happen... this is for the current period now.     Just kept getting pushed back.   Still in the 10-15 day period.   

 

It will move up eventually.   

 

 

 

 

The 12z EPS depicts another jet extension starting later in week 2, which would morph warmer but inevitably wetter as well. A very different pattern this year, so far.

 

[ShawniganLake]

71F outside. 81F inside.

 

GFS continues to look warm and mostly dry.

 

EPS shows a seasonably showery period beyond day 10.

[Phil]

So, I have to be fair to Tim here.

 

When looking at 500mb height anomalies alone on long range ensemble means with a large number of members (like the EPS), it can be difficult to decipher between the extension of the North Pacific extratropical westerly jet (the NPAC jet, often linked to EAMT/convective-diabatic dynamics from the Indo-Pacific domain) and an intensification of the subtropical jet (STJ, related more to cycles of meridional AAM propagation and tropical forcing east of the IPWP). I can’t do that either without the context provided by the spatial distribution of AAM/MT forcing.

 

And in the past I haven’t been clear as to which process I’m alluding to when mentioning a “jet extension”, since, for example, an extension of the subtropical jet without its northern counterpart will *not* typically lead to a zonal/wet pattern in the PNW during the warm season without some other type of help. The EPS was clearly depicting a slow, meridional NPAC jet during this period, even if the mean jet was extended. This is key.

 

Going forward, the NPAC jet will be extending, albeit it’s sort of a mix of both. So which one ends up being the “dominant” one will make a huge difference as to his wet/zonal late May ends up in the PNW.

[Farmboy]

Hopefully you manage to sell enough worthless trinkets to make the dream come true!

Maybe my comment was a little over the top. But it was not really directed towards you personally.

[TT-SEA]

Devil is in the details.

 

This...

 

 

 

Became this in reality... and the result is warm and sunny weather here for maybe the next 8-10 days now.

 

[Phil]

This did not happen... this is for the current period now. Just kept getting pushed back. Still in the 10-15 day period.

 

It will move up eventually.

See my comment a few posts up. I reluctantly acknowledge that I’m more to blame for the miscommunication here. There are multiple jets that make up the mean jet. While that is an extension of the mean jet, it’s not an extension of the NPAC jet, specifically. It’s actually an extension of the subtropical jet (STJ). At longer ranges, it becomes difficult to tell. When you look at the thermals and QPF anomalies there (warm/dry over the PNW), that becomes clear. Don’t need AAM/vectors or anything fancy to see that.

 

I never elaborated on the specific nature of what was being modeled there, either because I didn’t want to confuse anyone with wordy, acronym-laden posts (which many people here have PM’ed me and recommended that I try to avoid) or I was lazy/in a rush. April is my busiest time of year, and this year was no exception.

[TT-SEA]

See my comment above. I reluctantly acknowledge that I’m more to blame for the miscommunication here. There are multiple jets that make up the mean jet. While that is an extension of the mean jet, it’s not an extension of the NPAC jet, specifically. When you look at the thermals and QPF anomalies there (warm/dry over the PNW), that becomes clear. Don’t need AAM/vectors or anything fancy to see that.

 

Inever elaborated on the specific nature of what was being modeled there, either because I didn’t want to confuse anyone with wordy, acronym-laden posts, or I was lazy/in a rush. April is my busiest time of year, and this year was no exception. I guess that’s my bad.

You went out of your way to mock me a week ago about not posting all those troughy EPS maps.

 

So obviously the EPS has been backing off... because rain is still probably 10 days out. And it has been 10 days out for 2 or 3 weeks now. Which means its not moving up... as I just said.

 

I have no doubt it will come after the middle of the month. It will rain in May.

[Phil]

You went out of your way to mock me a week ago about not posting all those troughy EPS maps.

 

So obviously the EPS has been backing off... because rain is still probably 10 days out. And it has been 10 days out for 2 or 3 weeks now.

 

I have no doubt it will come after the middle of the month. It will rain in May.

Wrong. It was never showing a wet pattern in the PNW.

 

Quick lesson..note how the thermals associated with that 500mb image are more indicative of a subtropical jet intensification than a NPAC jet extension. Note how it’s actually warm/dry over the PNW with a meridional NPAC wavetrain.

 

For future reference.

 

[Phil]

And my mocking of you was in the context of the cool pattern that was already ongoing..not some fantasyland stuff on the D15 EPS (which was actually a more favorable pattern for you).

 

That makes no sense. Why would I troll you over D15 if there is stuff to troll over throughout the more believable range?

[TT-SEA]

Wrong. It was never showing a wet pattern in the PNW.

 

Quick lesson..note how the thermals associated with that 500mb image are more indicative of a subtropical jet intensification than a NPAC jet extension. Note how it’s actually warm/dry over the PNW with a meridional NPAC wavetrain.

 

For future reference.

 

The 500mb pattern was wrong most runs too. Look at this coming week. It did not look like this when it was in the 10-15 day period.

 

Its been backing off... pure and simple.

[Phil]

The 500mb pattern was wrong most runs too. Look at this coming week. It did not look like this when it was in the 10-15 day period.

 

Its been backing off... pure and simple.

Huh? It wasn’t wrong at all. This was a misinterpretation of the spacial orientation (hence the physical implications of) the colors due to skew by ensemble spread.

 

I just took 35 minutes to try and explain, with integrity, why the EPS was never depicting a NPAC jet extension or a cool/wet pattern for the PNW for the current period. Please show me the same level of integrity and respect.

[TT-SEA]

And my mocking of you was in the context of the cool pattern that was already ongoing..not some fantasyland stuff on the D15 EPS (which was actually a more favorable pattern for you).

 

That makes no sense. Why would I troll you over D15 if there is stuff to troll over throughout the more believable range?

 

What?  

 

Its been at or a little above normal almost every day since April 16th and it has not been that wet either.     What ongoing cool pattern?  

 

I have been saying for 2+ weeks that the EPS is showing a jet extension in the 10-15 day period.    Its still in the 10-15 day period.   It has not moved up... yet.

[Phil]

What?

 

Its at or a little above normal almost every day since April 16th and it has not been that wet either. What ongoing cool pattern?

 

I have been saying for 2+ weeks that the EPS is showing a jet extension in the 10-15 day period. Its still in the 10-15 day period. It has not moved up... yet.

It was a troughy pattern, dude. Let’s not fight reality.

 

And the EPS was (correctly) showing an extension of the mean jet via STJ..but it was not showing an extension of the NPAC jet, which is what would deliver a cool/zonal pattern to the PNW.

 

You have to differentiate between the two. They have completely different implications.

[TT-SEA]

Raining at Phil's house today... so he is obviously bored.

 

We are all made of water... it should rain every day and we should dance naked in it... green is good and red is bad... the models did not show what he claimed they were showing... and then he demands respect.   

[Phil]

Perhaps it comforts you to believe the EPS has some kind of “jet extension bias” so you don’t have to believe it when you see it in the long range? I don’t know.

 

But it’s simply not true. The EPS has not “backed off” its depiction of a NPAC jet extension, because it was never depicting that.

 

Okay? I’m conveying the reality of the situation to you, originally in good-faith, despite the flack and sarcasm. Why are you fighting me?

[TT-SEA]

It was a troughy pattern, dude. Let’s not fight reality.

 

 

Its been quite sunny and pleasant.   As I have been saying on many days over the last couple weeks.   

 

But you were obviously mocking me over the ongoing cold pattern... while I have been enjoying it immensely and posting about it.  OK.   

[TT-SEA]

Here was the 500mb pattern on the EPS 10 days ago for this coming week when it was in the 10-15 day period.

 

 

 

 

And here is the current EPS for the exact same period... which is now 0-5 days.   If you think it did good at the 500mb level then I don't know what to tell you.   

 

It backed off a great deal.   No amount of scientific gibberish will prove otherwise.       

 

[Phil]

Hold up, so I read through your posts and you actually acknowledged that the EPS was in-line with the ECMWF operational in showing a dry weather pattern.

 

I thought you were just innocent and stupid...turns out you’re a troll and a manipulator. Even after I tried to help you out? F**k you all the way, man.

 

[TT-SEA]

Hold up, so I read through your posts and you actually acknowledged that the EPS was in-line with the ECMWF operational in showing a dry weather pattern.

 

I thought you were just innocent and stupid...turns out you’re a troll and a manipulator. And I actually tried to help you out? F**k you, man.

 

See above troll master. Compare those maps.

 

I have been saying it shows a wetter pattern after day 10 for a couple weeks. But it never seems to move up. Its been in step with the operational through day 10 as usual.

 

WTF are we even talking about???

 

You are bored and you came to troll and troll hard. Own it man!!

[Phil]

Here was the 500mb pattern on the EPS 10 days ago for this coming week when it was in the 10-15 day period.

 

 

 

 

And here is the current EPS for the exact same period... which is now 0-5 days. If you think it did good at the 500mb level then I don't know what to tell you.

 

It backed off a great deal. No amount of scientific gibberish will prove otherwise.

 

You’re such a fake. You knew that was a dry pattern at the time..look at the thermals...meridional NPAC wavetrain with a ridge over AK/BC/PNW.

 

[Phil]

Boy, Tim, if you thought I was targeting you for trolling before, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

I’m gonna rip you to shreds daily from here on out. I’m so done with you. This is the most pathetic and disgusting display I’ve seen here in a long time.

[TT-SEA]

And???

 

The 500mb pattern was wrong. Too aggressive. Its been backing off on any hope of a wetter pattern.

 

It is what it is.

 

You are just bored and trolling like a mad man!

[TT-SEA]

Boy, Tim, if you really thought I was targeting you for trolling before , you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

I’m gonna rip you to shreds daily from here on out. This is the most pathetic display I’ve ever seen from you.

I have no idea what you are even talking about. Are you on drugs today?

 

You are all over the place. I am 100% sober and literally cannot follow you. Manic trolling by Phil.

[Phil]

And???

 

The 500mb pattern was wrong. Too aggressive. Its been backing off on any hope of a wetter pattern.

 

It is what it is.

 

You are just bored and trolling like a mad man!

It wasn’t wrong. You either lack the ability to comprehend the structural effects of ensemble spread, or you’re being intellectually dishonest in an attempt to “win” a debate that is unwinnable on scientific grounds but possibly winnable in public opinion (which won’t matter to me unless people get duped into believing the crap you’re spewing).

 

The thermals/QPF reveal precisely what the EPS was actually conveying. You seemed to understand this at the time, based on your commentary. So my hunch is you’re being intellectually dishonest. I hate people like this. They’re the cause of so many of the world’s problems.

[TT-SEA]

It wasn’t wrong. You’re either lying or lack the ability to comprehend the structural effects of ensemble spread.

 

The thermals/QPF reveal precisely what the EPS was actually conveying. You seemed to understand this at the time, based on your commentary.

I see the map above for the next 5 days when it was in the 10-15 day period... and it ended way more ridgy in reality.

 

I did not say that pattern was super wet when I posted the map. But it was also not the wall-to-wall sunshine and ridging that will actually be happening. It backed way off.

 

It showed 500mb heights of 558DM and reality will be closer to 576DM.

 

It did not see the 500mb ridge that will be parked over us this week.