May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TT-SEA]

So... 10 days ago the EPS showed this and the reality will be a warm and sunny week.   And yet Phil says the EPS nailed it.  

 

 

 

Today... the EPS shows this.   So by that logic expect another warm and sunny period from May 15-20.    Because obviously this actually means a big ridge over the PNW.      

[Phil]

I see the map above for the next 5 days when it was in the 10-15 day period... and it ended way more ridgy in reality.

 

I did not say that pattern was super wet when I posted the map. But it was also not the wall-to-wall sunshine and ridging that will actually be happening. It backed way off.

 

It showed 500mb heights of 558DM and reality will be closer to 576DM.

 

It did not see the 500mb ridge that will be parked over us this week.

It was an ensemble mean two weeks out (and it still showed ridging). Of course it was going to end up more amplified in reality. There was ensemble spread, as there always is, but the pattern structure was modeled very successfully, when you look at it from all angles.

 

And you know this. Stop denying reality.

[Phil]

So... 10 days ago the EPS showed this and the reality will be a warm and sunny week. And yet Phil says the EPS nailed it.

 

 

 

Today... the EPS shows this. So by that logic expect another warm and sunny period from May 15-20. Because obviously this actually means a big ridge over the PNW.

That is not the same pattern.

 

What is wrong with you today? Maybe see a doctor?

[TT-SEA]

It was an ensemble mean two weeks out. Of course it was going to end up more amplified in reality. There was ensemble spread, but the overall pattern was modeled very successfully, when you look at it from all angles.

 

And you know this. Stop denying reality.

 

 

I know this?  

 

No.   

 

It has done MUCH better with the 10-15 mean in the past.    It usually does better than that.    

 

But its been delaying the jet extension... its been stuck in the 10-15 day period.     It it what it is.  

[Phil]

These patterns are fundamentally different. One is an extension of the STJ underneath a western ridge with a subdued NPAC jet, the other is a hybrid, with both jets extending and a block over the pole and zonal flow over western North America.

 

[TT-SEA]

That is not the same pattern.

 

What is wrong with you today? Maybe see a doctor?

 

 

Close enough by your standards.

 

Dude... I can tell when you are high.   Its raining there... you are on drugs.    And I am sober.   Makes for an extra stupid conversation.    

[TT-SEA]

These patterns are fundamentally different.

 

 

 

So is this!      The above pattern became this.   

 

[Phil]

So is this!

 

That’s a 5 day mean, during a pattern change. So it’s actually multiple patterns blended together!

 

What’s your point? There is no logic to anything you’re saying right now.

[TT-SEA]

That’s a 5 day mean, during a pattern change. So it’s actually multiple patterns blended together!

 

What’s your point?

You are high as a kite and very bored.

 

Arguing black is white just for fun.

[Phil]

Close enough by your standards.

 

Dude... I can tell when you are high. Its raining there... you are on drugs. And I am sober. Makes for an extra stupid conversation.

They’re not even remotely close. I just outlined this issue for you in multiple, detail-laden posts. I even acknowledged the problems with my own descriptions and messaging.

 

This was good faith effort on my part to clear up this misunderstanding you seem to be having. Why are you not receptive to this? Why not debate from a scientific perspective, if you disagree?

 

So, I have to be fair to Tim here.

 

When looking at 500mb height anomalies alone on long range ensemble means with a large number of members (like the EPS), it can be difficult to decipher between the extension of the North Pacific extratropical westerly jet (the NPAC jet, often linked to EAMT/convective-diabatic dynamics from the Indo-Pacific domain) and an intensification of the subtropical jet (STJ, related more to cycles of meridional AAM propagation and tropical forcing east of the IPWP). I can’t do that either without the context provided by the spatial distribution of AAM/MT forcing.

 

And in the past I haven’t been clear as to which process I’m alluding to when mentioning a “jet extension”, since, for example, an extension of the subtropical jet without its northern counterpart will *not* typically lead to a zonal/wet pattern in the PNW during the warm season without some other type of help. The EPS was clearly depicting a slow, meridional NPAC jet during this period, even if the mean jet was extended. This is key.

 

Going forward, the NPAC jet will be extending, albeit it’s sort of a mix of both. So which one ends up being the “dominant” one will make a huge difference as to his wet/zonal late May ends up in the PNW.

See my comment a few posts up. I reluctantly acknowledge that I’m more to blame for the miscommunication here. There are multiple jets that make up the mean jet. While that is an extension of the mean jet, it’s not an extension of the NPAC jet, specifically. It’s actually an extension of the subtropical jet (STJ). At longer ranges, it becomes difficult to tell. When you look at the thermals and QPF anomalies there (warm/dry over the PNW), that becomes clear. Don’t need AAM/vectors or anything fancy to see that.

 

I never elaborated on the specific nature of what was being modeled there, either because I didn’t want to confuse anyone with wordy, acronym-laden posts (which many people here have PM’ed me and recommended that I try to avoid) or I was lazy/in a rush. April is my busiest time of year, and this year was no exception.

[Omegaraptor]

It's two different jet extensions with different causes. I don't see why that's so hard to understand.

[Phil]

It's two different jet extensions with different causes. I don't see why that's so hard to understand.

Thank you. Precisely this. Different jets, different causative triggers, different effects in the PNW.

 

Previously, the EPS had the STJ riding underneath the ridge over the West. But it still had the ridge. It was clear in the UV850/UV200 data.

[Phil]

BTW Tim, if you think tossing out works like “sober” and “drugs” will trigger me, prepare for more disappointment. If that was the case, I’d have relapsed long ago.

[TT-SEA]

It's two different jet extensions with different causes. I don't see why that's so hard to understand.

 

They are very close... one is just a little north of the other.

 

I have seen all kinds of variations in the EPS 10-15 day mean over the last 2 weeks... some of which were more aggressive than what its showing now.  None of which have become reality yet. 

 

I fully expect a wet pattern to develop during the second half of May though.   Take that to the bank.

[TT-SEA]

BTW Tim, if you think tossing out works like “sober” and “drugs” will trigger me, prepare for more disappointment. If that was the case, I’d have relapsed long ago.

 

 

I know I am sober.    I very much doubt you are.

 

This is all tedious BS.  

[Phil]

They are very close... one is just a little north of the other.

 

I have seen all kinds of variations in the EPS 10-15 mean over the last 2 weeks... some of which were more aggressive that what its showing now. None of which have become reality yet.

 

I fully expect a wet pattern to develop during the second half of May though.

They’re entirely different jet streams in this case. How is that even remotely close?

 

I know it’s hard to see this from the perspective of 500mb height anomalies (let alone a multi-day ensemble mean 15 days in advance) but you have to understand the dynamic nature of the pattern you’re dealing with before extrapolating from it!

 

Why are you not receptive to this reality?

[Omegaraptor]

So what are the odds that the whole thing just goes into CA and misses us?

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS still tries to bring a more consolidated jet through in the 10-15 day period... but it looks like the main action is focused to our south again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You actually said this week would be wet based on the EPS.   But of course it backed off... which is obvious.   

[Phil]

I know I am sober. I very much doubt you are.

 

This is all tedious BS.

Nice.

 

Not even going to bother with this nonsense. I’ve now wasted several hours this evening trying to help you accurately interpret 500mb maps with high ensemble spread..only god knows why. There are so many other things I could (should) be doing.

[Phil]

 

 

 

 

You actually said this week would be wet based on the EPS.

Yes, it will end up being a wet pattern.

 

What’s your point?

[TT-SEA]

Yes, it will end up being a wet pattern.

 

What’s your point?

 

 

Except it did not happen... and the rain is still 10 days away and will come from a totally different pattern according to you.  

[Phil]

I said it *will end up being* wet. Not *will be* wet.

 

Note the fact I deleted that post, because I was afraid you or someone else would take it out of context. But I guess I didn’t realize it was already quoted. Oops.

[Omegaraptor]

Except it did not happen... and the rain is still 10 days away and will come from a totally different pattern according to you.  

 

A Subtropical jet will not always result in a wet pattern. A North Pacific jet usually does.

[TT-SEA]

A Subtropical jet will not always result in a wet pattern. A North Pacific jet usually does.

 

I understand that.   I said exactly that on April 26th as you can see above.

 

Phil tried to troll me that same day and say that pattern will end up being wet even though I said it would probably be dry.   So even though I was right... he still argued just to argue. 

 

And now he says that post is still correct... and yet he also says a "fundamentally different" pattern will actually bring rain in 2 weeks.     

[Phil]

So what are the odds that the whole thing just goes into CA and misses us?

It’s sort of a hybrid since both the NPAC and the ST jet will extend later this month, so the outcome depends on which one ends up being dominant. The more anomalous rainfall is probably favored in OR initially, then WA/BC towards Memorial Day into early June, but all areas may cash in.

[TT-SEA]

It’s sort of a hybrid since both the NPAC and the ST jet will extend later this month, so the outcome depends on which one ends up being dominant. The more anomalous rainfall is probably favored in OR initially, then WA/BC towards Memorial Day into early June, but all areas may cash in.

 

 

And yet for all your trolling... you have been doing pretty well overall when you have actually been serious and forecasting honestly.     You called for the early May ridging a long time ago.  

 

You just have this reflexive instinct to dispute whatever I say.   Literally everything.  Which is a problem because I am not always wrong.   

[Phil]

I understand that. I said exactly that on April 26th as you can see above.

 

Phil tried to troll me that same day and say that pattern will end up being wet even though I said it would probably be dry. So even though I was right... he still argued just to argue.

 

And now he says that post is still correct... and yet he also says a "fundamentally different" pattern will actually bring rain in 2 weeks.

^^ Decent example of a sociopath right here.

 

Takes my post out of context, constructs a fake narrative, then uses the fake narrative to try and undermine the scientifically-sound argument he’s opposes, to fortify his incorrect, anti-scientific argument, because it comforts his fragile psyche to believe the EPS is biased towards jet extensions. Pathetic.

[GHweatherChris]

The gold dress is actually blue?

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

^^ Decent example of a sociopath right here.

 

Takes my post out of context, constructs a fake narrative, then uses the fake narrative to try and undermine the scientifically-sound argument he’s opposes, to fortify his incorrect, anti-scientific argument, because it comforts his fragile psyche to believe the EPS is biased towards jet extensions. Pathetic.

Sociopath is arguing just to argue all the time.

 

I said that day that pattern would be likely be dry up here... but that annoyed you so you said it would be wet.

 

Now you say that pattern will still be wet even though it did not happen... but it will be wet from a fundamentally different pattern that arrives in 2 weeks.

 

What??

[Phil]

And yet for all your trolling... you have been doing pretty well overall when you have actually been serious and forecasting honestly. You called for the early May ridging a long time ago.

 

You just have this reflexive instinct to dispute whatever I say. Literally everything. Which is a problem because I am not always wrong.

It’s not just you..I troll anyone who roots for big heat and giant ridges during the summer. It makes no sense.

[TT-SEA]

It’s not just you..I troll anyone who roots for big heat and giant ridges during the summer. It makes no sense.

Great.

 

We don't live in the swamp.

 

If someone wants a big ridge here for 4 weeks in the summer then so be it.

 

I want 75-80 with lots of sun and at least 1 inch of rain per week in the summer. Troll me for that stupidity. Its an extreme view.

[Phil]

Sociopath is arguing just to argue all the time.

 

I said that day that pattern would be likely be dry up here... but that annoyed you so you said it would be wet.

 

Now you say that pattern will still be wet even though it did not happen... but it will be wet from a fundamentally different pattern that arrives in 2 weeks.

 

What??

That’s more narcissistic than sociopathic, I think?

 

And I was trying to say that it would progress into a wet pattern with time. Not that the model was wrong about it being dry..I was forecasting ridging in May, not troughing. Remember? I deleted the post because I knew it was a poor description and could be taken out of context.

[TT-SEA]

That’s more narcissistic than sociopathic, I think?

 

And I was trying to say that it would progress into a wet pattern with time. Not that the model was wrong about it being dry..I was forecasting ridging in May, not troughing. Remember? I deleted the post because I knew it was a poor description and could be taken out of context.

You have a history of trolling almost every post I make. You were trolling me that day as well because I said it would probably be dry. Own it.

[GHweatherChris]

Maryland and North Bend narcissism is getting thick tonight!

[Jesse]

Nothing better than enjoying the warm, sunny evenings I give myself ulcers over sitting inside arguing for hours on a weather forum.

 

#psycho

[TT-SEA]

Nothing better than enjoying the warm, sunny evenings I give myself ulcers over sitting inside arguing for hours on a weather forum.

 

#psycho

I have been on the deck trying to do work for the last 3 hours. Busy week ahead. Going to airport now to get my wife.

 

I was outside all day since 8 am

[Jesse]

I have been on the deck trying to do work for the last 3 hours. Busy week ahead. Going to airport now.

Pics or it didn’t happen, fruitcake.

[Front Ranger]

Lots of "FLATIRONING" going on tonight!

[TT-SEA]

Pics or it didn’t happen, fruitcake.

Better than sitting in a dark room praying for dark weather!