June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

definitely has been unprecedented you are correct. I wasn’t referring to temps in the post mainly just in terms of rainfall from 2014-2017. You are right though things have been getting warmer.

Warm seasons have also been very dry, that was my main point.

[Omegaraptor]

That 42" is more in line with most the metro area.

 

PDX is a dry spot for the metro area but my area isn't much wetter. Hillsboro Airport averages 37.74" and the Beaverton WRCC station averages on the high end of 39" using 1972-2007 data.

[TacomaWaWx]

Warm seasons have also been very dry, that was my main point.

yeah some of the driest summers have been occurring here recently outside of 2015 which had rain occur at the end of August during the 8/29/15 storm.

[GHweatherChris]

We are not due anything.

[BLI snowman]

Also is the KGW station in a wetter microclimate than PDX or is the rain gauge just wrong? It averages 42” as opposed to 36”.

 

Downtown has always been wetter than PDX. Likely some orographic lifting help being right up against the West Hills.

[Deweydog]

Today seemed dry.

[GHweatherChris]

Today seemed dry.

Dryer than normal....

[Jesse]

Today seemed dry.

Figured that discussion would set you up nicely for a cool guy comment. You’re welcome.

[BLI snowman]

The last time this area (Battle Ground station) had a legitimately wet warm season month (MJJAS) was August 2015 at 128% of average. So that's a stretch of 17 warm season months in a row with average at best rainfall.

[Deweydog]

The last time this area (Battle Ground station) had a legitimately wet warm season month (MJJAS) was August 2015 at 128% of average. So that's a stretch of 17 warm season months in a row with average at best rainfall.

Been dry.

[BLI snowman]

Been dry.

 

Qwight.

[Deweydog]

Dryer than normal....

Fred Dwyer than normal even....

[Jesse]

Has he even been back 24 minutes?

[GHweatherChris]

Fred Dwyer than normal even....

D**n!

[Deweydog]

d**n!

I dare you to find an episode of Hunter where it was raining. Go ahead and try.

[Jesse]

73/49 here today with a few morning clouds. Early summer perfection.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs advertising 0.25-0.75” of rain over the next week for western WA and OR. Looks like tomorrow will be the last day of the nice streak of weather. Will be looking forward to getting some rain and hopefully we can get some nice weather on the back end of this upcoming weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Winter has arrived in Australia... cold and snow in unusual places.

 

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/blizzard-conditions-set-to-bring-heavy-snowfall-in-alpine-regions/news-story/193c6ac816be80180bf3023ae3530879

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter has arrived in Australia... cold and snow in unusual places.

 

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/blizzard-conditions-set-to-bring-heavy-snowfall-in-alpine-regions/news-story/193c6ac816be80180bf3023ae3530879

 

I could live in Tasmania for sure...

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks less hot.

[TT-SEA]

I could live in Tasmania for sure...

 

 

Hobart is sort of like Seattle... a little warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer.    Big difference is that there is no rainy season... precip is evenly spread out through the year and they only average a total of 22 inches annually.   But they also have 147 days with rain each year which is Seattle-like as well.

[TT-SEA]

Although... the forecast shows Hobart into the low 80s next week during what is the equivalent of December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Although... the forecast shows Hobart into the low 80s next week during what is the equivalent of December.

 

I looked up their all-time June record high, it is in the upper 60s...

 

Their all-time record low is 25 though, so I would say its climate is maybe more similar to San Francisco than Seattle.  

[BLI snowman]

Although... the forecast shows Hobart into the low 80s next week during what is the equivalent of December.

Literally no chance they get into the 80s.

[TT-SEA]

Literally no chance they get into the 80s.

My mistake... I checked again and it appears that I was looking at Hobart WA.

[Omegaraptor]

How many 90°F days will PDX see this year?

 

My guess is 14.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunny morning.

first morning without a marine layer/cloud deck in awhile here as well. 56 and sunny, looks like the last day of nice weather for a few days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws forecast discussion makes mention of some instability on Friday, mainly east of the cascades but there is mention of some potential instability. Hopefully that means we will finally be getting some interesting weather.

[Omegaraptor]

Cliff Mass just commented on the upcoming ULL, and mentioned thunderstorm chances. Not great at forecasting t-storms on GFS/ECMWF but the forecast is showing one on Friday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cliff Mass just commented on the upcoming ULL, and mentioned thunderstorm chances. Not great at forecasting t-storms on GFS/ECMWF but the forecast is showing one on Friday.

Yeah I just read his blog as well hopefully we end up getting some t-storms. Haven’t had any here locally since December 18th.

[TT-SEA]

Gfs advertising 0.25-0.75” of rain over the next week for western WA and OR. Looks like tomorrow will be the last day of the nice streak of weather. Will be looking forward to getting some rain and hopefully we can get some nice weather on the back end of this upcoming weekend.

 

 

12Z GFS and FV3 show improving conditions on Saturday and a really nice day on Sunday... so we might salvage part of the weekend.   

[Jesse]

Cool morning, low of 46.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully you are right. Nws forecast discussion made mention of increased onshore flow tonight so it could mean a later breakout on Monday but I’m all for less marine layer coverage.

They are not paying attention to the details. Just assuming onshore flow means more gloom... but it also means better mixing.

 

 

As I mentioned... the NWS was just not paying attention to the details. The low clouds were not more persistent on Monday and Tuesday despite increase in onshore flow. They did not account for better mixing which all the models were showing... even the WRF.

 

Even the coast is mostly clear of low clouds this morning...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

 

 

 

As I mentioned... the NWS was just not paying attention to the details. The low clouds were not more persistent on Monday and Tuesday despite increase in onshore flow. They did not account for better mixing which all the models were showing... even the WRF.

 

Even the coast is mostly clear of low clouds this morning...

 

you should start writing the Nws discussions!

[TT-SEA]

you should start writing the Nws discussions!

 

 

They just need to look at the surface map details more closely... particularly on the ECMWF.    

 

But in this case... even the WRF picked up on the better mixing.   

[GHweatherChris]

you should start writing the Nws discussions!

Good lord no, why would you say that?

[TT-SEA]

They are just broadbrushing Thursday and Friday now as well... with clouds and rain.

 

But the models do not show solid clouds and rain on either day.   Looks more like a partly sunny with showers scenario.

 

Here is Thursday afternoon for example...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

They just need to look at the surface map details more closely... particularly on the ECMWF.

 

But in this case... even the WRF picked up on the better mixing.

Yeah you were right about the mixing even though there were clouds yesterday it wasn’t a marine layer. I guess the Nws Seattle Just isn’t paying as close of attention since it’s the inactive season.

[Kayla]

How many 90°F days will PDX see this year?

 

My guess is 14.

 

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