June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

How many 90°F days will PDX see this year?

 

My guess is 14.

I’ll guess 25.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

you should start writing the Nws discussions!

Only if Jesse is also allowed to make a “rebuttal” and an explanatory section from Phil.

[Jesse]

Only if Jesse is also allowed to make a “rebuttal” and an explanatory section from Phil.

[TacomaWaWx]

Only if Jesse is also allowed to make a “rebuttal” and an explanatory section from Phil.

that one actually mde me laugh

[Jesse]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles show a nice variable pattern the next ten days. The deeper we can get into the summer without the perma-ridge setting up shop the better.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles show a nice variable pattern the next ten days. The deeper we can get into the summer without the perma-ridge setting up shop the better.

 

Hopefully we will continue the trend of variabilities and cycles of warm and cold all the way into the winter then the persistency with cold (e.g. Feb, 2019) can set in this time instead of the other way around (Nov-Jan, 18-19).

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles show a nice variable pattern the next ten days. The deeper we can get into the summer without the perma-ridge setting up shop the better.

 

 

I don't want a perma-ridge either... but (at the risk of offending you) I get the sense that you think that was the case last June because of the weather down there.

 

But there was no perma-ridge in June last year.    The last 10 days of the month were quite cloudy and damp in my area and that does not happen under a ridge.

 

 

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

I don't want a perma-ridge either... but (at the risk of offending you) I get the sense that you think that was the case last June because of the weather down there.

 

But there was no perma-ridge in June last year. The last 10 days of the month were quite cloudy and damp in my area and that does not happen under a ridge.

 

https://i.postimg.cc/Rh3rqntx/compday-Yk-MBlei-K9-L.gi

 

https://i.postimg.cc/j2TNSymL/compday-yyy-CBe-RCIg.gi

 

 

https://i.postimg.cc/G3ZYtn0Z/compday-Xws-Onb3-XKp.gi

We all knew this reply was coming, smh.

[TT-SEA]

We all knew this reply was coming, smh.

Did I disagree with him?

 

I think you are the one who really wants the perma-ridge.

[GHweatherChris]

Did I disagree with him?

 

I think you are the one who really wants the perma-ridge.

I wouldn't say no to one!

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 65 degrees here at 1:30pm. Light SW breeze. Last nice day for a few days it seems.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sky today with no haze at all.

 

No sign of drying out here despite being well below normal for rainfall over the last 6 or 7 weeks.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty sky today with no haze at all.

 

No sign of drying out here despite being well below normal for rainfall over the last 6 or 7 weeks.

 

Didn't like your original post?

[TT-SEA]

Didn't like your original post?

 

I noticed that I had a smear on my lens... had to retake and got more sky this time too.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z EPS also shows a weak trough around day 10 like the ECMWF operational run and no sign of any sustained hot weather.

 

[GHweatherChris]

I noticed that I had a smear on my lens... had to retake and got more sky this time too.

This made me chuckle!

[TT-SEA]

This made me chuckle!

 

Glad to entertain you.     You seem to be hitting refresh very frequently today.  

[GHweatherChris]

Glad to entertain you. You seem to be hitting refresh very frequently today.

Sitting here bored while our daughter is in with her orthodontist, nothing else to do.

[jakeinthevalley]

you should start writing the Nws discussions!

Jaya

[TacomaWaWx]

Jaya

He is surely missed.

[seattleweatherguy]

FWIW... the 12Z EPS also shows a weak trough around day 10 like the ECMWF operational run and no sign of any sustained hot weather.

 

Interesting. Later in the week probably Friday will have to make the call if to go on the 9th. I also have to decide on which new phone to get.

 

Either a Samsung Galaxy s10, Samsung Galaxy s10e or a version of the iPhone like the xr. And no, the version of weather app I can get won't affect my decision.

[Phil]

I don't want a perma-ridge either... but (at the risk of offending you) I get the sense that you think that was the case last June because of the weather down there.

 

But there was no perma-ridge in June last year. The last 10 days of the month were quite cloudy and damp in my area and that does not happen under a ridge.

 

 

 

 

True. But there was also a raging TPV/+NAO and poleward-displaced middle latitude anticyclones. So we kinda knew it was coming (once that started up).

 

In 2019 (for the first time in what feels like forever) that stagnant pattern has reversed...we actually have a negative northern annular mode now, right at the most critical point in the seasonal cycle.

 

So something will be different this year. I think it will be a more normal summer (or at least there should be a much healthier moisture draw). Though the warm pool still looks too far east to allow for a “cool” summer.

[TT-SEA]

True. But there was also a raging TPV/+NAO and poleward-displaced middle latitude anticyclones. So we kinda knew it was coming (once that started up).

 

 

Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

[Phil]

FWIW... the 12Z EPS also shows a weak trough around day 10 like the ECMWF operational run and no sign of any sustained hot weather.

 

I love that Baffin Island ridging, man. As long as that beautiful block holds firm up there, the 4-corners high will be weak and equatorward. Perfect case of destructive interference. Also cuts off the looping conduits through which the 4CH may establish and sustain the longer said blocking continues.

 

Is that dreaded vortex regime finally dead? If so, then maybe we can look forward to a change in the winter climatology as well (since the new RWB structure will mean less +PNA/+TNH..also will lead to a drop in the PDO, for those who care about it).

[Phil]

Hindsight is 20/20 of course.

Yep, pretty much. The “spring barrier” with regards to ENSO also seems to apply to the state of the annular mode/ITCZ/z-cells, etc.

 

We won’t know for sure until the solstice, but for the first time in years, I’m actually optimistic that we’re finally departing that horrendously stagnant and recurring waveform up there in NE-Canada. We almost broke left it back in 2016, but it survived for inertial reasons and thanks to that bizarre QBO hiccup prolonging the cycle of westerly shear (or are they one in the same?).

[Front Ranger]

Jaya

 

 

He is surely missed.

 

I dunno. Less heatwaves since he retired.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting. Later in the week probably Friday will have to make the call if to go on the 9th. I also have to decide on which new phone to get.

 

Either a Samsung Galaxy s10, Samsung Galaxy s10e or a version of the iPhone like the xr. And no, the version of weather app I can get won't affect my decision.

 

[Deweydog]

RIP Jaya.

[seattleweatherguy]

RIP Jaya.

What happened to him?

[TacomaWaWx]

What happened to him?

lol nothing he just retired. He still posts weather info on Twitter.

[TacomaWaWx]

72 for a high today. Really nice out but looking on satellite the next system is just off the coast currently. Still hoping for some convective excitement possibly with this pattern.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[jakeinthevalley]

RIP Jaya.

Too soon?

[Omegaraptor]

I love that Baffin Island ridging, man. As long as that beautiful block holds firm up there, the 4-corners high will be weak and equatorward. Perfect case of destructive interference. Also cuts off the looping conduits through which the 4CH may establish and sustain the longer said blocking continues.

 

Is that dreaded vortex regime finally dead? If so, then maybe we can look forward to a change in the winter climatology as well (since the new RWB structure will mean less +PNA/+TNH..also will lead to a drop in the PDO, for those who care about it).

 

Does this mean Portland can actually manage a wet winter now?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Does this mean Portland can actually manage a wet winter now?

Its a what have you done for me lately mentality around here. Portland has had plenty of wet winters in recent years. Lets stay real.

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful at the coast today!

Neskowin ghost forest with a rainbow in clouds

Nature was busy today entertaining me!

[High Desert Mat?]

Question is, when is “the guy” from the Maryland area going to get l$/d?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Question is, when is “the guy” from the Maryland area going to get l$/d?

He probably has tried, but then he bores them with his unintelligable diatribe of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

 

Not going to lie. Im a pervert and it doesnt float my boat.

[TacomaWaWx]

Clouds beginning to roll in from the west. Currently 65 degrees here. Light SW breeze.

[Front Ranger]

iPhone XS Max is great. I just got it a few days ago. WeatherMate on it works like a charm.

 

$1200 is a lot for a phone.