July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Maybe we’ll get along after all.

Pacific and Arctic air are both great. Best when they combine, though.

[Jesse]

85/62 at PDX today for a +5 departure. They will be close to a degree above average for the month after today, following a June that was 2-3 degrees above average. Anyone who has called this a cool summer is pretty much just insanely whiny.

 

Timing has worked out perfectly for warm anomalies the last few days too, with clear skies every day then clouds moving in right around sunset for balmy nights. Will be the same case tonight with clouds already approaching after holding off just long enough for daytime to be completely maximized.

[Front Ranger]

Wavetrain isn’t just what’s happening over the PNW. It covers the entire globe at the temperate latitudes.

 

Warm west, cool east (and the inverse) is just one example. In 1954, while the PNW was having an extremely troughy summer, the plains and part of the intermountain west were roasting. Colorado had one of its hottest summers on record that year. 2010 and 2011 were hot summers in most places east of the Rockies. There’s a reason why we often watch an Arctic Blast hit the Midwest in winter while it’s toasty and in the high 50s (or even 60+) in the lowland PNW.

 

There’s also persistent blocking systems such as the Rex Block we saw this spring. One day in May, Fairbanks was warmer than most of the desert southwest if I recall. It’s all teleconnected.

 

Yeah, that's still probably the second hottest summer overall for the region, after 2012.

 

2012 saw an incredibly warm March-August here, which included the warmest March and June on record at DEN, and a July that just barely fell short of hottest on record.

[Omegaraptor]

85/62 at PDX today for a +5 departure. They will be close to a degree above average for the month after today, following a June that was 2-3 degrees above average. Anyone who has called this a cool summer is pretty much just insanely whiny.

 

Timing has worked out perfectly for warm anomalies the last few days too, with clear skies every day then clouds moving in right around sunset for balmy nights. Will be the same case tonight with clouds already approaching after holding off just long enough for daytime to be completely maximized.

 

I may have complained earlier in the month but as I've said more recently, it's too early to call this summer cool, especially with the warmer than average June. We still have all of August and September in front of us, and even late July is potentially looking pretty toasty after this ULL moves through.

 

I do not think this summer will end up cool overall, and especially not like 2010 or 2011.

[Jesse]

As I've said. Too early to call this summer cool, especially with the warmer than average June. We still have all of August and September in front of us, and even late July is potentially looking pretty toasty after this ULL moves through.

Says the baby who was griping non stop the first week or so of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Its been troughy for the last month and yet still normal or a little above. Go figure. Just too cloudy overall. Today was spectacular though.

[Front Ranger]

85/62 at PDX today for a +5 departure. They will be close to a degree above average for the month after today, following a June that was 2-3 degrees above average. Anyone who has called this a cool summer is pretty much just insanely whiny.

 

Timing has worked out perfectly for warm anomalies the last few days too, with clear skies every day then clouds moving in right around sunset for balmy nights. Will be the same case tonight with clouds already approaching after holding off just long enough for daytime to be completely maximized.

 

To be fair, you were marveling at the lack of 85+ days the past month at PDX yesterday.

 

It hasn't been a "cool" summer, but there has certainly been a distinct lack of real heat since the mid June event. The average max at OLM was running almost 5 degrees below average for July before today.

[Requiem]

Says the baby who was griping non stop the first week or so of the month.

Meh, we’re all guilty of griping. Or being annoying.

[Jesse]

To be fair, you were marveling at the lack of 85+ days the past month at PDX yesterday.

 

It hasn't been a "cool" summer, but there has certainly been a distinct lack of real heat since the mid June event. The average max at OLM was running almost 5 degrees below average for July before today.

All I said was it’s pretty much unheard of lately. It’s been cool compared to our recent ungodly scorchers but that’s about it. I’m sure we will still pay for it later too.

[Deweydog]

Meh, we’re all guilty of griping. Or being annoying.

Wise words. And true.

[TT-SEA]

All I said was it’s pretty much unheard of lately. It’s been cool compared to our recent ungodly scorchers but that’s about it. I’m sure we will still pay for it later too.

Might... because its been solidly troughy for a month now.

[Jesse]

Might... because its been solidly troughy for a month now.

And this is why I’m always sure to kick you when you’re down. And on it will go forever.

[Front Ranger]

All I said was it’s pretty much unheard of lately. It’s been cool compared to our recent ungodly scorchers but that’s about it. I’m sure we will still pay for it later too.

 

Sure, the difference feels even greater compared to recent years. But highs have still been running cooler than normal for the past few weeks, at least for most the region. Which matters more to how a summer feels to most people than lows.

[TT-SEA]

And this is why I’m always sure to kick you when you’re down. And on it will go forever.

Not kicking anyone. It has been troughy for a month. Can't we discuss what is happening?

[Jesse]

[Dave]

Will someone post the euro precip maps for tomorrow? I'm helping someone replace a roof and I assured him it won't rain in the morning at all. The weather has been quite nice here since I got back from Georgia. The south sucks sweaty ballsacks.

[Omegaraptor]

Today feels much drier in terms of dew point and more like a "typical" west coast summer day in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

[Jesse]

Seriously. It has been a cloudfest out here and it sucked. You are pissed that its been warm. Nobody is happy.

The first ten or so days of the month were great, but yeah it’s kinda gone down the toilet since then. Hopefully this coming week is better!

[Deweydog]

Will someone post the euro precip maps for tomorrow? I'm helping someone replace a roof and I assured him it won't rain in the morning at all. The weather has been quite nice here since I got back from Georgia. The south sucks sweaty ballsacks.

How many?

 

Asking for a friend.

[Dave]

How many?

 

Asking for a friend.

And the Lord spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin. Then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out! Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy ballsacs of Antioch towards thy foe, who, being naughty in my sight, shall snuff it.

[Deweydog]

And the Lord spake, saying, "First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin. Then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out! Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy ballsacs of Antioch towards thy foe, who, being naughty in my sight, shall snuff it.

So what are your thoughts about this fall???

[Dave]

So what are your thoughts about this fall???

Because enso is transitioning into a neutral phase, la nada, and there is probably a solar minimum or something, Mt. Baker will see 96 feet of snow. Everywhere else will probably burn to a crisp.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think 12/11/14 was our last one? Maybe 4/7/17.

Yeah, the 4/7/17 was our last Sou'wester. Looking back it was actually a pretty impressive windstorm especially considering it happened in April. Highest April wind gusts at PDX since the 4/14/57 Sou'wester. Though for me, I'd want to experience something along the lines of a Columbus Day storm. Just to tell my children that I got to experience it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Pacific and Arctic air are both great. Best when they combine, though.

Yeah, we need both most of the time to get good snow down to the lowest elevations. A big league Arctic Blast like in December 2013 is such a waste.

[TT-SEA]

Decent swath of rain on the coastal radar now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, we need both most of the time to get good snow down to the lowest elevations. A big league Arctic Blast like in December 2013 is such a waste.

 

Eugene/Springfield thought it was great. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS is stronger with the trough than the ECMWF... but also leaves less energy behind and warm us up quick for next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So....All this talk of a cool west...It hasn't even been cool.

[TT-SEA]

So....All this talk of a cool west...It hasn't even been cool.

 

 

Quite troughy though... for an entire month.     I don't think 500mb heights have been above normal (up here at least) since June 18th and won't be until at least July 20th.  

 

That is 1 month and 2 days of below normal heights... we might expect a couple weeks of above normal heights at this point.   But I doubt above normal heights will run cooler than normal.

[Deweydog]

So....All this talk of a cool west...It hasn't even been cool.

That’s pretty cool.

[ShawniganLake]

Its been troughy for the last month and yet still normal or a little above. Go figure. Just too cloudy overall. Today was spectacular though.

Blob

[MossMan]

Decent swath of rain on the coastal radar now.

Supposed to stay south of Seattle...correct?

[TT-SEA]

Supposed to stay south of Seattle...correct?

Sure hope so. ECMWF showed that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quite troughy though... for an entire month. I don't think 500mb heights have been above normal (up here at least) since June 18th and won't be until at least July 20th.

 

That is 1 month and 2 days of below normal heights... we might expect a couple weeks of above normal heights at this point. But I doubt above normal heights will run cooler than normal.

Been normal, beautiful summer weather here so not all that out of the ordinary. The last 6 years skewed expectations.

[Omegaraptor]

Been normal, beautiful summer weather here so not all that out of the ordinary. The last 6 years skewed expectations.

 

Tim's concern is the sun up in North Bend. As unfortunate as it is, that's just the microclimate screwing him over.

 

It has been pretty nice especially in Eugene. Warmer weather is forecasted after this ULL passes, too.

[TT-SEA]

Been normal, beautiful summer weather here so not all that out of the ordinary. The last 6 years skewed expectations.

I don't think anyone expects it to be hot and smokey all summer. That is just silly to think that. The only complaint I have is the one I have made many times... its been far more cloudy than even a normal summer in this area. That also explains the lack of cold anomalies up here despite near perpetual troughing and below normal 850mb temps for the last month.

 

Today was troughy and yet was also drop dead gorgeous. Its reasonable to expect more sun here in a troughy pattern than what we saw for the last 3 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think anyone expects it to be hot and smokey all summer. That is just silly to think that. The only complaint I have is the one I have made many times... its been far more cloudy than even a normal summer in this area. That also explains the lack of cold anomalies up here despite near perpetual troughing and below normal 850mb temps for the last month.

 

Today was troughy and yet was also drop dead gorgeous. Its reasonable to expect more sun here in a troughy pattern than what we saw for the last 3 weeks.

 

If it is always cloudier than normal, than is it normal for it to be cloudy?

[TT-SEA]

Tim's concern is the sun up in North Bend. As unfortunate as it is, that's just the microclimate screwing him over.

 

It has been pretty nice especially in Eugene. Warmer weather is forecasted after this ULL passes, too.

To be fair... my complaint has been that it was unusually bad even for here. And pretty much all of King County.

 

I am comparing to what normally happens here in summer troughing. Its usually more cloudy than down there... but rarely is it as bad and as persistent as this recent period.