PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Lets hear it!  

I am pretty confident at this point that there will be a significant pattern change the last week of the month.  And based on past history with a developing Nino... May probably won't be cold.    But that is just my take and I could be wrong.   

 

You may be right about may. Hahahaha. I’d go with a pretty typical month though who knows maybe we go all May 2018. Perhaps something closer to May 2009. Some warm days thrown into that mix. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You may be right about may. Hahahaha. I’d go with a pretty typical month though who knows maybe we go all May 2018. Perhaps something closer to May 2009. Some warm days thrown into that mix. 

Imagine how much you look forward to the first cold trough in the fall.   That is where I am right now on the opposite end... it was been a long winter and another cold spring so far and really looking forward to something different.   But just because I am looking past the upcoming cold trough doesn't mean I think you should do that.   

Side note... there are surprising number of dead fir trees in my area.   It was not obvious last summer or during the winter but we are seeing the reality now and it's sad.   I genuinely don't want the extreme summer weather we have seen the past couple years to repeat.     Something more balanced would be nice.      

[TT-SEA]

All of the ensemble runs go to this pattern during the last week of April and the 12Z GEFS continues that theme.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All of the ensemble runs go to this pattern during the last week of April and the 12Z GEFS continues that theme.     

Not horrible 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows rain next weekend again... but is very different than its 00Z run.    The troughing that hangs back from the big system this week will likely linger through next weekend but the models are not even close to settling on the specifics yet.   Personally... I would like next weekend to be wet since we won't be here.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks delightful. 

[Phil]

Forcing almost back to Indo/MC domain by D15 on the EPS. Not really a classical MJO, more like a CCKW (faster) and ERW (slower), both of which project onto RMMs.

Could be a difficult time for model guidance coming up. The pattern itself will be fragile/easy to perturb as well. Good luck to all forecasters out there.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Forcing almost back to Indo/MC domain by D15 on the EPS. Not really a classical MJO, more like a CCKW (faster) and ERW (slower), both of which project onto RMMs.

Could be a difficult time for model guidance coming up. The pattern itself will be fragile/easy to perturb as well. Good luck to all forecasters out there.  

Decent signal for a pattern change... its been very consistent.    I think May will be favorable for warmth as well.  

 

[Phil]

The EPS keeps trending farther West with the Aleutian/AK low in the LR. Have to watch that, any further and we’ll be back to +WPO/NPAC ridge, similar to the control run.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought of a really funny joke about a potential pattern change….

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Decent signal for a pattern change... its been very consistent.    I think May will be favorable for warmth as well.  

 

Well, early May should be. And later this month as well, though a bit delayed vs my idea from a few weeks ago.

But am starting to doubt it’ll have much staying power (or at least less than what I was thinking before). Dominant forcing hastily propagates to Indo/MC and ET ERW influence wanes as it does so. The faster trend has continued for 3 consecutive days.

Hard to see how this doesn’t go right back to Midwest ridging in early/mid May, unless there’s a systemic error across guidance. Strikingly reminiscent of of the evolution back in early/mid March (-NAO following -NPO peak, then -NAO descent with return of -PNA/+NPO).

[TT-SEA]

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

WOW pretty!!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, early May should be. And later this month as well, though a bit delayed vs my idea from a few weeks ago.

But am starting to doubt it’ll have much staying power (or at least less than what I was thinking before). Dominant forcing hastily propagates to Indo/MC and ET ERW influence wanes as it does so. The faster trend has continued for 3 consecutive days.

Hard to see how this doesn’t go right back to Midwest ridging in early/mid May, unless there’s a systemic error across guidance. Strikingly reminiscent of of the evolution back in early/mid March (-NAO following -NPO peak, then -NAO descent with return of -PNA/+NPO).

We will see!    I don't think May will be cold... but that is just my sense.   Also wavelengths are different in May than they are in March.   

One thing is certain... talking about the weather weeks in advance is well received by a couple people on here as long as you are saying what they want to hear.   That is the key point.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, T-Town said:

WOW pretty!!

Dirty snow is ugly.

[Phil]

Impressive

 

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, T-Town said:

WOW pretty!!

That Outback is close to fully blooming! 

[MossMan]

Been dribbling for the last hour, that has just graduated to light rain. Currently 48 degrees. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

48 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That Outback is close to fully blooming! 

How's the steak and onions? 

[T-Town]

59 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Been dribbling for the last hour, that has just graduated to light rain. Currently 48 degrees. 

Rained hard enough here to drive me inside at which point I decided to take a nap. And it was glorious. 

52 and sprinkling now. 

[DareDuck]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see!    I don't think May will be cold... but that is just my sense.   Also wavelengths are different in May than they are in March.   

One thing is certain... talking about the weather weeks in advance is well received by a couple people on here as long as you are saying what they want to hear.   That is the key point.   

I just want to talk about the weather! Poor me!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Why does the marine layer get shallow under high pressure? 

Because of all of Jesse's downvotes compressing it.

[MossMan]

Looks like sunnier/warmer weather possibly on the horizon if the PNA forecast holds. 

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

I just want to talk about the weather! Poor me!

I do.   Tell me what I am doing wrong?   Looking forward to something I like and not telling anyone else what they should talk about or like.   You can't find a post from me this year mocking someone's preferences.   I can find 20 directed at me in the last week from the same 2 people.   I don't care what you say or the other two people on here say.  I am not doing anything wrong and have no ill will towards anyone.   It's just weather. 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope no one was trapped inside. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX hit 60 again today. Which at this point is still a degree or two below average.

[NWbyNW]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX hit 60 again today. Which at this point is still a degree or two below average.

No big deal we are still winning!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No big deal we are still winning!

The reality of nature and weather is you are going to lose again.  And probably soon.    So why make it a stupid competition?   Pointless and divisive.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No big deal we are still winning!

What's the win/lose threshold. 65 F?

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I do.   Tell me what I am doing wrong?   Looking forward to something I like and not telling anyone else what they should talk about or like.   You can't find a post from me this year mocking someone's preferences.   I can find 20 directed at me in the last week from the same 2 people.   I don't care what you say or the other two people on here say.  I am not doing anything wrong and have no ill will towards anyone.   It's just weather. 

 

You still haven't thrown the hook!  

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Glad we will be in Charleston this week. 

[TacomaWx]

We’ve picked up 0.03” of rain so far today…52/42 temp spread after a glorious 57/33 day yesterday. Up to 2.57” MTD. 

[TacomaWx]

We’re -4.2F MTD at the halfway mark…and with the chilly weather coming up that number won’t be drastically changing yet. Probably not as cold as 2011 but could be close. Starting to also look like this month could be the wettest April since 2017 (5.22”) and 2018 (5.61”). 

[T-Town]

Calm. 

[GHweatherChris]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I would wonder about damage from the weight of all that snow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

18z GFS got pretty ridgy in the long range, but didn’t seem to have much in the way of ensemble support, fortunately.

 

12z EPS gets us near average in the long range. Would love to see that control run verify.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 4/14/2023 at 5:58 PM, Phil said:

That’s a maple.

I agree. Looks like a red maple to me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Speaking of trees, this is the Yoshino cherry in front of my place last week.