August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Would clinch a 6th consecutive August in top warm territory down here. Seems likely.

It’s just so D**n easy now. We are cranking out a pretty warm month up here too.

[Jesse]

Beautiful few nights camping at Deer Park in the Olympics. Weather was mild and ranged from totally clear and sunny to socked in with mist at times.

 

 

 

[Requiem]

Beautiful few nights camping at Deer Park in the Olympics. Weather was mild and ranged from totally clear and sunny to socked in with mist at times.

 

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Lovely pictures!

[TT-SEA]

It probably won't last for too long... but it is really nice to see the endless ridging and warmth in Alaska take a break.

 

00Z EPS 5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

EPS stays warm through the 10-15 day period as well... but its shown this before this summer and it never actually happens.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm good at drawing "Ligers"

Those things are huge!

 

http://www.ligerliger.com/images/gallery/wLiger0107.jpg

[snow maniac]

It probably won't last for too long... but it is really nice to see the endless ridging and warmth in Alaska take a break.

 

00Z EPS 5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

EPS stays warm through the 10-15 day period as well... but its shown this before this summer and it never actually happens.

 

Yuck.

[ShawniganLake]

A few degrees cooler this morning. With clear blue skies and 53F

[ShawniganLake]

First snow of the season could fall in northern BC this weekend.

[Front Ranger]

It probably won't last for too long... but it is really nice to see the endless ridging and warmth in Alaska take a break.

 

00Z EPS 5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

EPS stays warm through the 10-15 day period as well... but its shown this before this summer and it never actually happens.

 

There actually have been warm periods this summer.

[TT-SEA]

There actually have been warm periods this summer.

The EPS has consistently over-promised really warm spells all summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is crazy. Thanks Brian S. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

The EPS has consistently over-promised really warm spells all summer.

models seem to have tried to bring in hot weather all summer but it just has ended up being low to mid 80s for the most part, which is perfect imo.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 59 this morning, last 3 morning lows have been 59, 59 and 60.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing overly exciting on the ensembles. I have been ignoring the EURO for a year or two now. Definitely the worst model out there. 

[TT-SEA]

Nothing overly exciting on the ensembles. I have been ignoring the EURO for a year or two now. Definitely the worst model out there. 

 

 

Definitely.

 

They are probably retiring it and throwing in the towel.    The ECMWF makes the NAM look awesome.     D**n socialists.

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing overly exciting on the ensembles. I have been ignoring the EURO for a year or two now. Definitely the worst model out there.

I’ve never liked it. NAVGEM or JMA is the way to go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely.

 

They are probably retiring it and throwing in the towel.    The ECMWF makes the NAM look awesome.     d**n socialists.

 

3KM NAM rox. 

[TT-SEA]

Not a real juicy marine layer this morning... the cloud bases are quite high and there is no drizzle even here.    That is different than most of the marine layer days this summer.

[Front Ranger]

I thought Andrew was an ICON guy?

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

GFS (and the old GFS) keep the trouging closer to the West Coast next week compared to the ECMWF... and its cooler and even wetter as a result. 

 

I would place my bet on the GFS solution.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought Andrew was an ICON guy?

 

Germany is pretty cool. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Germany is pretty cool. 

 

We kicked their a** in two world wars though.

[seattleweatherguy]

Tuesday warmest day of the week it looks like. And snow in nothern BC already wow

[Jesse]

There actually have been warm periods this summer.

It’s been another warmer and drier than normal summer regionally, and looks to continue that way.

 

It has been a little closer to normal than the last several summers though, which has understandably been VERY upsetting at times. Hopefully next summer reverts back to something comfortably distant from anything even resembling a normal summer here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s been another warmer and drier than normal summer regionally, and looks to continue that way.

 

It has been a little closer to normal than the last several summers though, which has understandably been VERY upsetting at times. Hopefully next summer reverts back to something comfortably distant from anything even resembling a normal summer here.

 

I think many people were expecting a torch fest because we are coming off a Nino. 

 

This summer has been fairly close to 2016, which was a very warm summer, but not quite as blowtorchy as the others this past half decade. Well on our way to another top 8 warm August at PDX which would put us at the past 6 August's being top 8 warmest. Right now I think we are on pace for 3rd or 4th warmest all time. 

[Jesse]

I think many people were expecting a torch fest because we are coming off a Nino.

 

This summer has been fairly close to 2016, which was a very warm summer, but not quite as blowtorchy as the others this past half decade. Well on our way to another top 8 warm August at PDX which would put us at the past 6 August's being top 8 warmest. Right now I think we are on pace for 3rd or 4th warmest all time.

I was just going to post about that. If August ended today it would be the third warmest on record at PDX. Looking less and less likely there will be anything to move that number down going forward, too.

[TacomaWaWx]

I was just going to post about that. If August ended today it would be the third warmest on record at PDX. Looking less and less likely there will be anything to move that number down going forward, too.

don’t think it’ll be top 5 up here but it’ll be up there in terms of warmth. While the beginning of August has been wet it’s also been warm. Still, this has been the best summer since 2012.

[TT-SEA]

It’s been another warmer and drier than normal summer regionally, and looks to continue that way.

 

It has been a little closer to normal than the last several summers though, which has understandably been VERY upsetting at times. Hopefully next summer reverts back to something comfortably distant from anything even resembling a normal summer here.

 

 

My only problem with this summer was the unusually persistent clouds in the mid-June through mid-July period.     That was not normal even for here.   

 

It actually can't get much more cloudy in that period ever... because it was cloudy about 90% of the time.     A 1 or 2 week stretch of cloudy weather in the summer is normal.    Going a full month in the summer with just 2 or 3 days with sun in that period... quite rare.    

 

You love to build up these strawmen who supposedly want 100-degree heat and wildfires all summer.   You must need fictitious enemies to stand in for nature.   

[Timmy Supercell]

Some of the mornings here are feeling a tad like early September. A little bit of a breeze and it doesn't really start feeling "warm" until about 1pm.

 

On the downside, rest of August could go without any thunder days here. AFD's are a bit depressing to read 

Maybe in September I get a few rumblers, but that is not one of my most reliable months for convection.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles looking comfortingly warm throughout the run.

 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the unusually warm low temps (one of the side effects of unusual cloudiness) has been very upsetting to some as well.  

 

Because the daytime temperatures (when people are actually awake) have not been that warm this summer.

 

[Front Ranger]

Side note... the unusually warm low temps (one of the side effects of unusual cloudiness) has been very upsetting to some as well.  

 

Because the daytime temperatures (when people are actually awake) have not been that warm this summer.

 

 

MTD, 30 day, 90 day, and 120 day are all largely above normal.

[Jesse]

I’ve hardly seen any posts about the warm low temps.

[Timmy Supercell]

I’ve hardly seen any posts about the warm low temps.

 

I bet that's mostly an urban statistic. Find me a location east of the cascades that is experiencing any change in low temperature statistics.

[TT-SEA]

I’ve hardly seen any posts about the warm low temps.

 

 

And yet... the unusually warm lows (often related to cloud cover) are the main reason for the warm temperature departures this summer.

 

Its been wetter than normal since the middle of June... and daytime highs have averaged below normal.   And its still statistically upsetting.

[Front Ranger]

It’s been another warmer and drier than normal summer regionally, and looks to continue that way.

 

It has been a little closer to normal than the last several summers though, which has understandably been VERY upsetting at times. Hopefully next summer reverts back to something comfortably distant from anything even resembling a normal summer here.

 

Yep. Very 2013 or 2016ish, although it's looking like August may end up warmer than either of those summers.

[ShawniganLake]

And yet... the unusually warm lows (usually related to cloud cover) are the main reason for the upsetting overall temperature stats this summer.

It hasn’t been a cloudy summer here and the nights have been warm.

 

I also heard tofino had their warmest July on record. I’ll blame the blob.