August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF continues to advertise a more stable warm pattern next week. That is a much different pattern than we have seen this summer and not dependent on the precise placement of ULLs offshore. I am hoping we are starting a seasonal shift in wavelengths and its just been struggling with the transition. I am sure that is just wishful thinking though.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF rainfall... looks like Portland might get more than my area. 00Z run showed at least twice as much though.

 

 

That looks wet. Hard to believe the last run was spitting out 1.20" for Corvallis.

[MossMan]

Still drab and dreary up here. Been cleaning inside. Mowing will come later.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF rainfall... looks like Portland might get more than my area. 00Z run showed at least twice as much though.

 

Wow. Pretty decent.

[TT-SEA]

That looks wet. Hard to believe the last run was spitting out 1.20" for Corvallis.

In general. I am sure it was not exactly half for every single location. I just glanced at both maps. The 00Z run was much wetter overall. The front starts splitting earlier on this run.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Just checked again... 00Z was much wetter for WA and NW OR. But this run actually has more rain rather south than the 00Z run. Energy splits more. I usually only focus on WA.

[Deweydog]

Looks sticky.

[Omegaraptor]

How often does a system like this happen in late August?

[TT-SEA]

How often does a system like this happen in late August?

Never I guess.

 

Justin spent June mocking me for even suggesting that it could rain in July and August... let alone be wetter than normal which is what I was thinking. Phil nailed this summer... saying there would be significantly more moisture available. I was just following his idea.

[Jesse]

How often does a system like this happen in late August?

It’s pretty rare. The last time we saw a legit front like that this time of year was probably August 2004. So you were still in diapers and Tim was still in chaparral.

[jcmcgaffey]

It’s pretty rare. The last time we saw a legit front like that this time of year was probably August 2004. So you were still in diapers and Tim was still in chaparral.

. What about the largest August windstorm the region saw in 2015. Was on the Oregon coast and it was epic.

[TT-SEA]

It’s pretty rare. The last time we saw a legit front like that this time of year was probably August 2004. So you were still in diapers and Tim was still in chaparral.

I was actually here for the August 2004 rain. It had been really dry and it was nice to see.

[Jesse]

. What about the largest August windstorm the region saw in 2015. Was on the Oregon coast and it was epic.

Yeah but we were talking more about organized fronts/rainstorms. Windstorms are kind of a different animal but that was certainly impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Almost totally sunny here now. Need to get out and do yardwork. I keep getting distracted and then decided to eat lunch after Shawnigan dragged me away from my task.

[Deweydog]

Tim, can you please post some maps and local stats supporting the contention it was a cloudy early summer at your house?

 

Thanks in advance.

[Jesse]

#bitingthehandthatfeeds

#ballzy

 

#stillgotalikethough

[Omegaraptor]

Beautiful day.

 

Also, I wonder if the Wednesday front could be a good sign for fall, or just a one-off event.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, can please post some maps and local stats supporting the contention it was a cloudy early summer at your house?

 

Thanks in advance.

Laughed out loud at this one... loud enough that my daughter asked what was so funny.

[Jesse]

Marine layer beginning to burn off here, up to 68.

[Jesse]

Surprisingly good EPS support for the Euro’s hot pattern around day 10.

[BLI snowman]

Never I guess.

 

Justin spent June mocking me for even suggesting that it could rain in July and August... let alone be wetter than normal which is what I was thinking. Phil nailed this summer... saying there would be significantly more moisture available. I was just following his idea.

The rains will slam us in August like always.

 

You're so totally right, I forgot about that post you made. Was that really June? Time flies. And hyperbolic comments pile up!

[ShawniganLake]

Almost totally sunny here now. Need to get out and do yardwork. I keep getting distracted and then decided to eat lunch after Shawnigan dragged me away from my task.

You could have done it later. It wasn’t an emergency but thank you.

 

I’m up in parksville today at Kidsfest. Pretty cloudy but it was a sunny drive up.

[TT-SEA]

The rains will slam us in August like always.

 

You're so totally right, I forgot about that post you made. Was that really June? Time flies. And hyperbolic comments pile up!

I said wetter than normal... riding Phil's coattails. That was the way to go. You can admit it was a good call and you did not believe it would happen.

[BLI snowman]

Latest GFS looks like 85-ish. But there has been a trend for these close call days ahead of systems to overachieve lately, like last Tuesday or 8/1.

GFS would have to be extremely wrong for Tuesday to top 90 here. Those late August sun angles are fading into oblivion, too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

79F and beautiful out there in the south valley. Another picture perfect summer here like usual.

[BLI snowman]

I said wetter than normal... riding Phil's coattails. That was the way to go. You can admit it was a good call and you did not believe it would happen.

You seem to put a lot more emphasis on this prediction battle that supposedly went down than I ever did, but if you want a tiara and some IHOP gift cards for your virtuous righteousness then by all means!

[Deweydog]

Haha.

 

IHOP gift cards....

 

IHOP sucks.

[BLI snowman]

Haha.

 

IHOP gift cards....

 

IHOP sucks.

They need to build one in Battle Ground ASAP.

[TT-SEA]

Barely a cloud in the sky here... I am sweating mowing the lawn. Terrible. Better if it was gloomy and drizzling. All the time.

[Deweydog]

They need to build one in Battle Ground ASAP.

Haha!

 

That’s close to where I live!

[El_Nina]

Lawn still hasn't turned totally brown and has managed to keep growing in places, so I had to mow here also. I didn't sweat tho cause I'm an avid runner and it didn't challenge my stamina enough.

[TT-SEA]

Lawn still hasn't turned totally brown and has managed to keep growing in places, so I had to mow here also. I didn't sweat tho cause I'm an avid runner and it didn't challenge my stamina enough.

Touche!

 

Did you mow in the scorching hot sun like me? Phoenix-like out there.

 

Hello darkness my old friend.

[BLI snowman]

Haha!

 

That’s close to where I live!

 

Haha! Walgreens.

[Jesse]

79F and beautiful out there in the south valley. Another picture perfect summer here like usual.

Haven’t you described the last several as smoke filled nightmares? Mordor and the like.

[Jesse]

You seem to put a lot more emphasis on this prediction battle that supposedly went down than I ever did, but if you want a tiara and some IHOP gift cards for your virtuous righteousness then by all means!

I believe those items are actually part of the settlement in the ongoing pain and suffering lawsuit.

[Deweydog]

Haha! Walgreens.

Hmmm... I think they already have one.

[TT-SEA]

Haven’t you described the last several as smoke filled nightmares? Mordor and the like.

 

 

I think he is still trolling me from early July.  

 

Except it has been almost as lovely here since the middle of July... and was just as lovely here in May and the first half of June.

[Omegaraptor]

Remember when everyone thought there would be a terrible fire season this year?

[BLI snowman]

I believe those items are actually part of the settlement in the ongoing pain and suffering lawsuit.

 

Ah yes, Tobias v. The Pacific Ocean