August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

It’s August 19th.

[jakeinthevalley]

It’s August 19th.

My buddy, who is in Antarctica, begs to differ with you. He says it's August 20th

[Jesse]

Euro wants to get us hot days 8-10. And it’s been more consistent the last few runs. Looks like the GFS is on board now too.

 

Could be just enough to help us avoid avoiding yet another top 5 warm August.

[Jesse]

The next week or so looks really nice though. Seasonably mild with a very decent rainfall chance on Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

Total rain per the 12Z ECMWF... 

 

[Deweydog]

Starting to feel like it could be a September to remember as a follow up to the #augusticebox. Stay tuned for more details!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The solar min has now officially overwhelmed UHI.

It's coming.

 

[El_Nina]

It's coming.

Blue stars are hotter.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Blue stars are hotter.

True.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Kevin Martin getting the MET tag on here and putting out his weird a** maps was a real professional high water mark here.

We all make mistakes. The silver lining was watching the group ridicule him until he took his MS Paint maps and went home.

He was very knowledgeable about weather but he threatened iFred so he had to get the boot.

[Dave]

You must not be in Eugene/Springfield. 62F here.

My super calibrated $5.99 Chinese analog thermometer displayed that. Eug was reporting 72. It was dead calm at the time.

 

Temp did drop pretty quickly afterwards.

 

Got a refreshing marine layer today

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think the last wetter than normal summer here was 2008

And then a mammoth regional snowstorm hit in December of that year.

[seattleweatherguy]

And then a mammoth regional snowstorm hit in December of that year.

 

Cant forget that one for sure, here is hoping for another

[ShawniganLake]

[Omegaraptor]

And then a mammoth regional snowstorm hit in December of that year.

2004 had a very wet August and 04-05 was a crap winter.

[TT-SEA]

Completely sunny and 73 here now.

[TT-SEA]

2004 had a very wet August and 04-05 was a crap winter.

 

Summit at Snoqualmie was open for about a week that entire winter.   

 

Our house was also under construction and I remember many sunny, pleasant days that winter.   The good ol' days!  

[Deweydog]

It’s rained at some point during every summer over the last 100 years. Analog???

[MossMan]

Total rain per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Looks like a good soaking. The green theme looks to continue this summer. Would have been the perfect summer if we had a few less cloudy days.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clouds have burned off.  Beautiful 74F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2004 had a very wet August and 04-05 was a crap winter.

 

Higher solar tho plus wasn't that a nino?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Cant forget that one for sure, here is hoping for another

The models were also able to pick up on the Arctic Blast quite early and the epic snowstorm was forecast well in advance. It was the biggest snowstorm I've ever experienced in my life and the snowiest winter. Hopefully we can have a repeat this winter.

[Jesse]

EPS appears to be on board with the heatwave idea in the 8-10 day range.

 

Something tells me we will see our hottest temps of the summer rather late this year.

[Front Ranger]

EPS appears to be on board with the heatwave idea in the 8-10 day range.

 

Something tells me we will see our hottest temps of the summer rather late this year.

Would be sorta interesting. Don't see the hottest temps of the summer post 8/20 very often.

[MossMan]

EPS appears to be on board with the heatwave idea in the 8-10 day range.

 

Something tells me we will see our hottest temps of the summer rather late this year.

Better late than never.

[TT-SEA]

It seems that all projected warm spells have been scaled back this year... I will believe it when it gets within 2 days.  

[Jesse]

It seems that all projected warm spells have been scaled back this year... I will believe it when it gets within 2 days.

I’m definitely hoping it’s just a mirage. But this feel more like the real deal with support from both the GFS and Euro, as well as their ensembles. Plus it would make sense to see a spike with wavelengths changing soon.

[Deweydog]

I get the sense opinions may vary about a potential late summer sizzler.

[Omegaraptor]

Cliff Mass just made his 11th rain-related post since July 1. That’s one every 4.55 days.

[Jesse]

I get the sense opinions may vary about a potential late summer sizzler.

Any fresh insight on the 500mb pattern from up there?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2004 had a very wet August and 04-05 was a crap winter.

Higher solar tho plus wasn't that a nino?

Yeah, it was higher solar and a weak El Nino.

[Deweydog]

Any fresh insight on the 500mb pattern from up there?

Baja Fresh?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

08-09 was a different world down here.  Just 2" on the initial bands going into the blast and got up into the 40s a few days later. Was the 38th snowiest winter in the history of EUG records.

 

I was fortunate enough to have enjoyed that event living a few miles SW of McMinnville.  Last White Christmas I experienced.

[Jesse]

Baja Fresh?

Yes, Baja Fresh.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

08-09 was a different world down here. Just 2" on the initial bands going into the blast and got up into the 40s a few days later. Was the 38th snowiest winter in the history of EUG records.

 

I was fortunate enough to have enjoyed that event living a few miles SW of McMinnville. Last White Christmas I experienced.

What was your snow total that Winter near McMinnville?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What was your snow total that Winter near McMinnville?

 

28" with a 1.5" layer of ice in the middle. Had to step up into it off our porch.

 

I'm pretty sure the low passed virtually right over SW Yamhill County.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

28" with a 1.5" layer of ice in the middle. Had to step up into it off our porch.

 

I'm pretty sure the low passed virtually right over SW Yamhill County.

I know parts of Yamhill and Washington County closer to the Coast Range got absolutely hammered. Perfect combination of moisture and cold enough Arctic air.

[Omegaraptor]

ECMWF, EPS, GFS, old GFS, GEFS, GEPS, ICON, GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, weekly CFS, Wunderground, and Accuweather 90 day all indicate a warm or hot spell starting in the 7-10 day range.

[Deweydog]

Yes, Baja Fresh.

Freshmex communist!