September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[jcmcgaffey]

Nope, just in your yard.

Just a light sprinkle here:). I was just surprised when I checked out the satellite to see if I could see the system come in and it had the look of a very convective system directly overhead.

[ShawniganLake]

Tomorrow looks surprisingly nice on the 12Z ECMWF. Rain tonight moves out by morning and next round is still down south tomorrow afternoon. It shows low to mid 70s in the Seattle area with a decent amount of sun.

How does it look up this way tomorrow. We are having some photos taken. My wife wasn’t too happy about the showery forecast.

[Jesse]

How does it look up this way tomorrow. We are having some photos taken. My wife wasn’t too happy about the showery forecast.

 

Hopefully the showery rain will stay down here most of the day.

[TT-SEA]

How does it look up this way tomorrow. We are having some photos taken. My wife wasn’t too happy about the showery forecast.

Probably partly sunny up there too...

 

[MossMan]

Tomorrow looks surprisingly nice on the 12Z ECMWF. Rain tonight moves out by morning and next round is still down south tomorrow afternoon. It shows low to mid 70s in the Seattle area with a decent amount of sun.

Perfection!

[Phil]

[Phil]

70-71 could probably have ****. One of the snowiest winters in history for SW BC. I believe it is the snowiest in record for YVR. Shawnigan Lake had right around 80”.

Good to know, thanks.

 

What was 1986/87 like up there?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Dorian no longer looks like a hurricane. It has also grown immensely in size from last week when it was destroying the Bahamas.

[Jesse]

Don't want to get into any nasty political arguments.

 

Please stop spamming our regional subforum. You've been doing it all day.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Please stop spamming our regional subforum. You've been doing it all day.

TT-SEA and Phil have been talking about Trump and Dorian too on this forum.

[Omegaraptor]

[Front Ranger]

70-71 could probably have ****. One of the snowiest winters in history for SW BC. I believe it is the snowiest in record for YVR. Shawnigan Lake had right around 80”.

Yeah, and 1963-64 and 2005-6 largely sucked.

[Deweydog]

TT-SEA and Phil have been talking about Trump and Dorian too on this forum.

Biased policing in 2019.

 

Shameful.

[Jesse]

Biased policing in 2019.

 

Shameful.

You’d know an awful lot about that.

 

#freeTim

[Phil]

TT-SEA and Phil have been talking about Trump and Dorian too on this forum.

I’m guilty of OT posts for sure.

 

But dude, literally half of US presidents since WWII have featured “radical change” as part of their stump speeches. Trump certainly did, Obama did, Reagan did, FDR did, etc. It’s not unique to Obama.

[Phil]

Yeah, and 1963-64 and 2005-6 largely sucked.

Remember, the SSW occurred in January 2006, which culminated in a decent February 2006.

 

It’s not about the entire winter here, it’s about the effects of the SSW, since that was the question being asked.

[BLI snowman]

Sorry, it took my awhile to type this up.

 

The list of significant wave-2 SSWings back to 1960 (including anomalous early/late perturbations classified within the framework) is below.

 

I put a “****” next to winters that (if I’m reading correctly) were decent for the PNW. Interesting/similar themes show up here, as to which years/SSW events perform for the region, and which ones don’t/do so less frequently.

 

It seems having -ENSO and +QBO (40/50mb) together increase the chances for cold/snow in the PNW dramatically after SSWings (and just in general too) while having -ENSO/-QBO is actually *less likely* to deliver than +ENSO/-QBO, except during solar minimum. The death blow appears to be +ENSO/+QBO..a very hostile background state for the PNW.

 

As mentioned, during solar minimum, the -ENSO/-QBO background state can perform quite well..just as well as the -ENSO/+QBO state. But outside solar minimum, it’s no bueno.

 

1962/63 (-QBO/neut ENSO)****

1963/64 (+QBO/+ENSO)****

1967/68 (+QBO/-ENSO)****?

1968/69 (-QBO/+ENSO)****

1969/70 (+QBO/+ENSO)

1970/71 (-QBO/-ENSO)

1972/73 (-QBO/+ENSO)****

1973/74 (+QBO/-ENSO)****

1978/79 (+QBO/neut ENSO)****

1979/80 (-QBO/neut ENSO)****

1980/81 (+QBO/neut ENSO)

1984/85 (-QBO/-ENSO)****

1985/86 (+QBO/neut ENSO)****

1986/87 (-QBO/+ENSO)

1987/88 (+QBO/rapidly-decaying +ENSO)

1988/89 (+QBO/-ENSO)****

1990/91 (+QBO/neut ENSO)****

1996/97 (-QBO/-ENSO)****?

1998/99 (-QBO/-ENSO)

2000/01 (+ to - QBO transition, -ENSO)

2001/02 (-QBO, neut ENSO)

2002/03 (+QBO, +ENSO)

2003/04 (-QBO, neut ENSO)****?

2005/06 (-QBO, -ENSO)****?

2006/07 (+QBO, +ENSO)

2008/09 (+QBO, -ENSO)****

2012/13 (-QBO, neut ENSO)

2015/16 (+QBO, +ENSO)

2017/18 (+ to - QBO transition, -ENSO)****?

2018/19 (-QBO, +ENSO).****

1963-64 was a flamebroiled turd and 1970-71 was certainly well within the decent range. As was 2006-07.

[Phil]

Remember, the SSW occurred in January 2006, which culminated in a decent February 2006.

 

It’s not about the entire winter here, it’s about the effects of the SSW, since that was the question being asked.

Geesh, it’s only September and Flatiron is already misinterpreting my posts.

 

Gonna be a long winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Sorry about the spam.

 

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-op-dorian-climate-change-david-whitley-20190906-6kiuvwvacbe4xfmdca7lwh372m-story.html

 

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a summary report last month that said it’s “premature to conclude with high confidence that human activities — and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming — have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity.”

[Phil]

[Phil]

BTW, what parameters are we referencing to define what constitutes a “decent” winter pattern? People have different/subjective takes on this stuff.

 

I’m looking specifically at the degree of Arctic cold pool intrusion into the PNW in reanalysis. So stuff that might be enjoyable to a select few (like a raging jet/strong cyclones or NW flow/low snow levels, etc) would not be included in the “****” list.

[snow_wizard]

My 2 cents on the healthcare question...

 

Most people have insurance through their employer.  The Democrat plan would require huge tax increases to implement.  In the end people who have insurance through their employer lose that and have to pay increased taxes for what will probably be sub standard care.  Pretty horrible unless you are an illegal or sit on your arse for a living.

[snow_wizard]

BTW, what parameters are we referencing to define what constitutes a “decent” winter pattern? People have different/subjective takes on this stuff.

 

I’m looking specifically at the degree of Arctic cold pool intrusion into the PNW in reanalysis. So stuff that might be enjoyable to a select few (like a raging jet/strong cyclones or NW flow/low snow levels, etc) would not be included in the “****” list.

 

I want 150 blocking, Arctic air, and lowland snow.  The low snow level cold zonal flow stuff is ok for part of the winter, but in the end not great for the lowlands.

[BLI snowman]

[Phil]

Given the SSW/FW in the Southern Hemisphere, it’s a safe bet that there will be a strong MJO response later this month into October. The CFS is typically slow with these waves’ eastward propagation but it looks to cross the WHEM later this month.

 

A strong, dynamically-forced MJO event crossing the Atlantic near the peak of hurricane season could get ugly in a hurry. It doesn’t usually happen this way, with cold season dynamics igniting an MJO via SH conduits while warm season dynamics are still dominant across the NH subtropics with the ITCZ already NH-biased.

 

Will be fascinating to watch/learn from this one.

[Jesse]

The 12Z Euro wanted to build a sharp ridge into the western US starting around day 8, but the EPS shows lower heights over us in the 8-10 day range. More in line with the GFS and its ensembles.

[Front Ranger]

Geesh, it’s only September and Flatiron is already misinterpreting my posts.

 

Gonna be a long winter.

Clearly I wasn't the only one.

 

Two other people said basically the same thing, but for some reason you jumped on me.

[ShawniganLake]

65-66 was actually good for most places, quite snowy everywhere outside of Portland and impressive for a Nino. Just lacked a major Arctic airmass. So last winter, basically.

There was some pretty serious cold trying to push out of the Fraser in early January. Abbotsford had a 20/10 type day with close to 2ft of snow on the ground, but it seems like the cold lacked much penetration and retreated shortly after. Shawnigan Lake had about 60” of snow between Christmas and January 5th. About as good as it gets, especially given the Enso

[BLI snowman]

There was some pretty serious cold trying to push out of the Fraser in early January. Abbotsford had a 20/10 type day with close to 2ft of snow on the ground, but it seems like the cold lacked much penetration and retreated shortly after. Shawnigan Lake had about 60” of snow between Christmas and January 5th. About as good as it gets, especially given the Enso

 

Lot of cold onshore flow in that stretch for most. Historically snowy along the WA coast and in BC where the low level arctic was. Mid December 1965 had a pronounced fake cold spell which transitioned directly into the active -PNA stretch. White Christmas pretty much regionally as well.

[Phil]

My 2 cents on the healthcare question...

 

Most people have insurance through their employer. The Democrat plan would require huge tax increases to implement. In the end people who have insurance through their employer lose that and have to pay increased taxes for what will probably be sub standard care. Pretty horrible unless you are an illegal or sit on your arse for a living.

Or cut military spending in half, raise taxes to 50% on the top 10% of earners, and implement a progressive investment tax system based on both investment income and the appreciation of the stock owned. The rich can easily afford a tax increase.

 

You can also cut spending on a bunch of stupid stuff that should be private sectored like national endowment of the arts, cut a bunch of subsidies to private sector corporations, easily trim down most agencies by ~ 30%, legalize cannabis et al and scale back the ridiculously expensive war on drugs (which drives black market drug prices through the roof and allows cartels to thrive) and implement an E-verify system to punish corporations that hire illegal workers to save money at the expense of American workers, which should hopefully put some upward pressure on wages too especially if we implement a merit-based immigration system (one of the areas that I agree with republicans/old school Democrats on).

[TacomaWaWx]

Latest SEA AFD is interesting. Hoping for a few rumbles of thunder tonight. Should be lots of rain associated with any lightning storms so that’s good. Overall a wet night is coming up.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Dorian is now a post-tropical cyclone. It's about time.

[TT-SEA]

Saw that it was much sunnier to the east... so we drove 12 miles east and hiked to Franklin Falls.

 

[Deweydog]

First sub-80 September day in almost a year...

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs shows rain on every day but 2 the next 10 days. Shows 2” of rain in many places from Eugene all the way north except N.interior around the San Juan’s which is rain shadowed.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like some convection is building in the cascades around east of Portland and also in the north cascades in WA.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some convection is building in the cascades around east of Portland and also in the north cascades in WA.

Drab and dreary day in the lowlands.

 

Too bad you won't see the convection building thanks to the slate gray ceiling.

[TacomaWaWx]

Drab and dreary day in the lowlands.

 

Too bad you won't see the convection building thanks to the slate gray ceiling.

Yeah pretty gloomy day. Would have be nice if the sun came out earlier to build some instability for some storms.

[Deweydog]

Drab, dreary, dank, dark, depressing, demoralizing, dopey, drenched, drizzly, dewey, damp, dickless, decaffeinated, deplorable, dave dombrowski, douchey, dusky, democratic, dumb, dandelion, deadly day out there.

 

F*ck.

[GHweatherChris]

Cloudy but very nice day here today, no drab, no dreary, no gloomy, no need to find sanctuary in the sun....