October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Gorgeous day!

 

High of 66*. Low tonight 51*.

 

Clear today and tonight.

Low humidity.....just awesome.

[OKwx2k4]

Went out bowhunting this morning...wow, I need to get used to this again, even if it has only been less than 5 months since we last saw snow! Wet, heavy snow that stuck yet melted on me. Wind was blowing like crazy. I was becoming an icicle needless to say. Need to get some water resistant gear that's warm Had to come in to dry a bit. Going back out later. Regardless, I would rather be out in the woods when it's like this than if it was even 60. Absolutely beautiful outside!

Yep. It's official. I'm jealous! Thank you for sharing those! You are in a truly beautiful place. Winter wonderland.

[Stacsh]

Normal October shaping up here in Michigan. Mid 60’s next week. What’s all the fuss about?

[Beltrami Island]

This article and chart pretty much sums up the last 6 weeks around here. The chart red lines are 10 and 90th percentiles for the date. Its probably just as bad or worse to the west in the red river valley

 

https://www.kenoraonline.com/local/ice-damage-flooding-possible-with-high-water-levels

[jaster220]

I really appreciate that link! I had been looking to read up on snowstorm history here but haven't been  able to find anything.

 

I just "re-found" it. Seen it many years ago and then somehow it got lost. I'm stoked to have another member/poster east of Chicago, all the better a fellow native of the Mitt! 

[Grizzcoat]

Oh phone so this is a little cumbersome but Clayton,NM was 23F at midnight and broke a record with that for yesterday . 19F this AM which broke record of 25F. Data back at least to 1917. Earliest they have been under 20F.

 

I will work on Kenton or Boise City when I get to desktop.

Pretty sure the Kenton with 12F broke a record- but it hasn't updated yet since it seems to be a COOP site or even NOWDATA and is under fiscal restrictions as mentioned in other posts-- likely why no updates if COOP site-- BUT-- Clayton actually got to 17F Friday AM and data goes back to 1896.

Almanac for CLAYTON MUNICIPAL AIR PARK, NM

October 11, 2019

 

Max Temperature 56F  avg  70  record high 89 in 1962  record min max 42 in 1969 Min Temperature 17  avg 43   record max min 59 in 1997 17 in 2019 ecord min

 

 

Period of Record:

• Max Temperature : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Min Temperature : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Precipitation : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Snowfall : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Snow Depth : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11

[OKwx2k4]

 

 

Pretty sure the Kenton with 12F broke a record- but it hasn't updated yet since it seems to be a COOP site or even NOWDATA and is under fiscal restrictions as mentioned in other posts-- likely why no updates if COOP site-- BUT-- Clayton actually got to 17F Friday AM and data goes back to 1896.

Almanac for CLAYTON MUNICIPAL AIR PARK, NM

October 11, 2019

 

Max Temperature 56F avg 70 record high 89 in 1962 record min max 42 in 1969 Min Temperature 17 avg 43 record max min 59 in 1997 17 in 2019 ecord min

 

 

Period of Record:

• Max Temperature : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Min Temperature : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Precipitation : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Snowfall : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11
• Snow Depth : 1896-02-01 to 2019-10-11

Thank you for following up buddy! I'm pretty sure it was too. That was a darn cold morning for those folks.

[Tom]

The active northern stream will continue to dominate early next week as we have another PAC wave traversing the northern tier and strengthening into a strong storm near the GL's.  Another sign of an anchor trough near the GL's this season???  This was that signal that the ensembles were showing early last week and it looks like the northern piece will be the main player.  Definitely a Miller B type storm track in the works with this one and IMHO I think this will be a re-occurring exhibit for this LRC.

 

Taking a look back at what has happened already and where the pattern is heading for the remainder of this month I'm seeing a very favorable pattern evolving across the heartland and the majority of our Sub.  It seems to me that we are likely to see another banner year in terms of tracking storm systems this season across our Sub.  I'm seeing a very good sign that systems will energize and dig across the central CONUS, and what looks to me like an anchor trough that is becoming established, as well as, and oscillating SW/W coast ridge.  The SW ridge has always been on my mind since late summer and I've shown a few examples in the past of what I had envisioned.  I don't see systems targeting that region to much this month and into the colder season.  There may be a few storms mid/late winter that dig deep into the 4 corners due to seasonal shifts of the jet stream but overall I'm expecting a drier pattern out that way.

 

Anyway, I'd like to show you what I'm seeing....we had our 1st storm coming out of CO and cutting up through the Upper MW...

 

 

 

Then we have our PAC wave that will prob be a "hybrid clipper" in future cycles...

 

 

 

Then the next system which has been predicted to be due between the 18th-21st....boy, this one has a sweet looking sub tropical connection...

 

 

 

 

 

Following this storm I have been predicting a major eastern CONUS trough to close out the month and the 00z GEFS are certainly pointing that way.  Cold times are coming....

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Sunny and crisp attm w temps at 46F

[Niko]

No frost last night but ova the next several nights, chances will be on the rise for getting some. Stay tuned!

[westMJim]

Even with clear skies for part of the night the low here was just 44. At this time with cloudy skies the temperature is at 47

[OKwx2k4]

The active northern stream will continue to dominate early next week as we have another PAC wave traversing the northern tier and strengthening into a strong storm near the GL's. Another sign of an anchor trough near the GL's this season??? This was that signal that the ensembles were showing early last week and it looks like the northern piece will be the main player. Definitely a Miller B type storm track in the works with this one and IMHO I think this will be a re-occurring exhibit for this LRC.

 

Taking a look back at what has happened already and where the pattern is heading for the remainder of this month I'm seeing a very favorable pattern evolving across the heartland and the majority of our Sub. It seems to me that we are likely to see another banner year in terms of tracking storm systems this season across our Sub. I'm seeing a very good sign that systems will energize and dig across the central CONUS, and what looks to me like an anchor trough that is becoming established, as well as, and oscillating SW/W coast ridge. The SW ridge has always been on my mind since late summer and I've shown a few examples in the past of what I had envisioned. I don't see systems targeting that region to much this month and into the colder season. There may be a few storms mid/late winter that dig deep into the 4 corners due to seasonal shifts of the jet stream but overall I'm expecting a drier pattern out that way.

 

Anyway, I'd like to show you what I'm seeing....we had our 1st storm coming out of CO and cutting up through the Upper MW...

 

 

 

Then we have our PAC wave that will prob be a "hybrid clipper" in future cycles...

 

 

 

Then the next system which has been predicted to be due between the 18th-21st....boy, this one has a sweet looking sub tropical connection...

 

 

 

 

 

Following this storm I have been predicting a major eastern CONUS trough to close out the month and the 00z GEFS are certainly pointing that way. Cold times are coming....

 

 

Northern half is winning in the early modes of the new pattern.

 

Do you think that cutter out of CO is a weak remnant of the old pattern of a year ago? I hope so.

[Tom]

Northern half is winning in the early modes of the new pattern.

 

Do you think that cutter out of CO is a weak remnant of the old pattern of a year ago? I hope so.

No, it’s a brand new pattern...you’ll do fine down the road.

[OKwx2k4]

No, it’s a brand new pattern...you’ll do fine down the road.

Good. Thought so, but you and I use different tools and references to look forward so I thought I'd check myself. Thanks.

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to see the Browns "Bakering" up some Sea Chicken for lunch today.

 

Off topic, I know. Good game though.

[Niko]

Gorgeous sunny skies today w temps remaining in the upper 50s. Cold tanite as temps fall into the 30s. Some frost possible, especially, tomorrow nite. Have to wait n c.

[james1976]

12z GFS has that pretty strong system yet for the 20th-21st. Keeps active after that as well. Fun times ahead

[OKwx2k4]

Well, so much for the brownies and my Chiefs today. Boo. Lol.

[Andie]

Gorgeous day in North Texas. High at 81*. Low tonight 60*. Clear, Heavenly day.

 

We have a front moving in. Monday night rain will come in through Tuesday.

Expect approx .75" on average. Temps will stay in the mid 80's till Wednesday when they drop into the 70's.

It's great to finally feel the season change.

[Niko]

The wind today is a big factor. I am getting wind gusts as high as 45mph. Geez.

 

Jaster-are ya getting strong winds also. My garbage bins were knocked down by the gusty winds

[Niko]

Widespread frost for my area tomorrow nite as temps really drop between 30-35F. First frost of the season for mby coming up.

[OKwx2k4]

Found some of the best looking acorns I've seen in a decade, and my persimmons were very big and very clearly shovels. (No picture. Hands got too sticky to use phone)

[jaster220]

The wind today is a big factor. I am getting wind gusts as high as 45mph. Geez.

 

Jaster-are ya getting strong winds also. My garbage bins were knocked down by the gusty winds

 

I wasn't home. I was up yonder in the hinterlands of de north. Twas a mite windy up there I'll agree. Even some wet snow was dusting the ground a wee bit. 

 

Within this hour, more serious squalls across the interior highlands of NMI

 

[Tom]

1st Frost Advisory of the season was hoisted last night for our region.  Temps have yet to dip cold enough to see any substantial Frost.  Currently sitting at 37F and staying in the low 50's again today with abundant sunshine.  I'll have to wait and see once daylight emerges if there is any spotty Frost.  

[Tom]

I took a deep look into the data this morning and it is really fascinating what is happening across the N Hemisphere and N.A.  As the saying goes, "All systems a Go"....so many leading indicators are falling into place and the LR tools I've been using are doing a pretty darn good job.  The system late this week/weekend is definitely showing up right on schedule but some discrepancy among the models is for how far south this storm will dig, if it does at all.  This should be another interesting storm to track as I foresee a colder component to it along with a Sub Tropical connection.  The second highlight storm of this new developing LRC.

 

 

Before we get there, we have a GL's clipper type system that may lay down more....Snow????  Let's see if the Northwoods will score some more...

 

[Niko]

Its a cloudy, raw cold morning w temps at 44F.

[Niko]

Here we go.....1st of the season for MBY

 

Action Recommended: Make preparations per the instructions Issued by: Detroit - MI, US, National Weather Service,

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. &&

 

Wooohoooooo

[jaster220]

The cold ULL that shifted east over the N Lakes (which are still warm) triggered some action of it's own

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM WATER SPOUT 5 N CHARLEVOIX 45.40N 85.26W
10/13/2019 LMZ342 MI TRAINED SPOTTER

7 TOTAL WATERSPOUTS OBSERVED SINCE 305 PM.

[Niko]

Attm, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly w temps at 46F. Cannot get any more Octoberish than this.

[jaster220]

Attm, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly w temps at 46F. Cannot get any more Octoberish than this.

 

That's actually more normal high temp for Novembrrr !!

 

THE BATTLE CREEK MI CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY

 

NORMAL

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 40

 

(but Stasch says "nothing to see here")

[Niko]

That's actually more normal high temp for Novembrrr !!

 

THE BATTLE CREEK MI CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY

 

NORMAL

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 40

 

(but Stasch says "nothing to see here")

Exactly..feels like mid November.

 

Plenty to see here if you ask me

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was 37 however the official low at GRR was 42. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 50/44. At this time the mean for October at Grand Rapids is 55.9° this is a departure of +1.8.   For today the average H/L is 61/42. The record high is 83 set in 1975 and the record low is 27 set in 1939. Last year the H/L was 60/38 and that was the last time Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better until March 28^th 2019 when the high reached 61.

[Tom]

Had some spotty Frost on top of roofs and in some low lying spots this morning on the way to the gym.  I guess this would solidify as my 1st official Frost of the season.

[jaster220]

The overnight low here at my house was 37 however the official low at GRR was 42. Yesterday the H/L at Grand Rapids was 50/44. At this time the mean for October at Grand Rapids is 55.9° this is a departure of +1.8.   For today the average H/L is 61/42. The record high is 83 set in 1975 and the record low is 27 set in 1939. Last year the H/L was 60/38 and that was the last time Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better until March 28^th 2019 when the high reached 61.

 

Yeah, thx for the reminder of the massive sub-60 stretch. Unfortunately, a useless fact of last cold season's pattern. During end of Jan, and all of Feb, all the good snows were immediately followed by 50's and/or rain, so that stat looks deceiving as if it were a "cold" snow-friendly winter here. Funny how that works with printed stats. They rarely tell the whole story, nor "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey would say. 

[jaster220]

Had some spotty Frost on top of roofs and in some low lying spots this morning on the way to the gym.  I guess this would solidify as my 1st official Frost of the season.

 

Congrats on that. Do you know what's avg for yby?  Looks more promising around here than last week's headline. 

[Tom]

Congrats on that. Do you know what's avg for yby?  Looks more promising around here than last week's headline. 

Usually around Oct 13th...right on schedule

[jaster220]

A heatwave in the 6-10 day period?

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Color has really ramped up since our 3 nights of freezes, 2 hard freezes.  Unfortunately as I anticipated, many trees never had time to change and have dropped all or most of their green leaves.  I think with windy conditions being forecasted in the coming days, we are going to be picking up leaves like crazy in the next week or two.

[Niko]

A heatwave in the 6-10 day period?

 

20191014 APX Graphic.png

Rather have this warm weather now, than December.

[james1976]

I had a hard freeze Saturday morning and this morning as well. Growing season is definitely done over here.