October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

September and most of October 2002 were really nothing like this year.

Not a good overall analog for S/O/N, especially early on, but it has its strengths.

 

I’m speaking of what it offers in terms of the predictability of the global pattern progression..not what it means for the PNW specifically. Good global/seasonal analogs often fail for particular regions.

[Phil]

Pacific is all blocked up.

 

Rushing the progression into what looks like an insanely blocky, -EPO dominated mid/late November (and onwards).

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM. Day 5 Note the contours digging back in Northeastern BC.

 

[TT-SEA]

00z GEM. Day 5 Note the contours digging back in Northeastern BC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEM goes nuts with the second lobe by Sunday night.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW OMG!!!!! 00z GEM ALERT!!! Day 6

 

[El_Nina]

No jet stream again this winter?

[ShawniganLake]

Germans leading the way.

[Phil]

No jet stream again this winter?

Last winter had a decent jet at times.

 

This winter might not have much of a jet at all. December is debatable, I guess? Depends how far it extends. Could end up as a typical Aleutian Low/+PNA that month.

[TT-SEA]

Last winter had a decent jet at times.

 

This winter might not have much of a jet at all. December is debatable, I guess? Depends how far it extends.

Sounds nice.

[Jesse]

Germans leading the way.

 

Been about 80 years. They were due.

[Jesse]

Balmy night tonight. Still 59 here with SSW winds ahead of the front. Hit a high of 61 earlier after a low of 50 this morning.

 

Tomorrow will probably see a midnight low.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles are a big step back from the 18z

[Gradient Keeper]

Not real warm!

 

[Phil]

The MJO is waking up.

 

This will finally give Jim his long-awaited trade wind burst and SOI spike in early November, before propagating over the dateline/WPAC thereafter and beginning a cycle of constructive interference with the base state.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re up to 0.78” currently. 58 degrees and breezy rainy conditions here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ensembles are a big step back from the 18z

Yeah not very cold at all. How deflating! lol

 

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

[snow_wizard]

2002 

 

Don't worry about it.  Terrible analog in a number of respects.

[Requiem]

Ensembles are a big step back from the 18z

 

Oh, really?

[snow_wizard]

I figured the the 0z would be a big improvement over the 18z.  Looking like a very solid shot of cold continental air will be paying us a visit.

[snow_wizard]

Oh, really?

 

I don't think the ensemble is even out yet.

[Requiem]

I don't think the ensemble is even out yet.

 

That's what I thought lol, operational hasn't even finished yet.

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles are a big step back from the 18z

 

 

Yeah.... big jump east.     00Z GFS ensemble is fully updated on WB.

 

18Z ensemble mean:

 

 

00Z ensemble mean:

 

[ShawniganLake]

Oh, really?

Yes. Much warmer. They were out when I made the post. I wasn’t making it up

[Requiem]

Yes. Much warmer. They were out when I made the post. I wasn’t making it up

 

Darn. Can't have best of both worlds lol

[snow_wizard]

The GFS has yet another Canadian cold front dropping down in early November.  Pretty incredible!  Obviously if something doesn't break the momentum we have going November will have some winter weather.  This is going to be fun to watch.

 

As an aside the NOAA space weather site has the official daily average radio flux at 64.  I don't think anyone saw that coming.  This solar min is dropping off the table now!

[Winterdog]

1.53” today ups October to 6.3”. Still pouring 56F.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah.... big jump east.     00Z GFS ensemble is fully updated on WB.

 

18Z ensemble mean:

 

 

00Z ensemble mean:

 

Yep. I really wasn't expecting that.

 

6z GFS in 4 hours

[snow_wizard]

Yes. Much warmer. They were out when I made the post. I wasn’t making it up

 

They're not that bad really.  I did find them.  I'm guessing Seattle will bottom out at -4 or -5 on the 850s.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt it is really wierd how much swing we are seeing in both the operational GFS and the ensembles right now.  Extremely complex situation with an explosive retrogression / 500mb reversal about to take place.

[ShawniganLake]

They're not that bad really. I did find them. I'm guessing Seattle will bottom out at -4 or -5 on the 850s.

The mean bottoms out around -1C

[snow_wizard]

The mean bottoms out around -1C

 

I'm saying what I think will happen.  Obviously things will change again.

 

BTW The GEM is orgasmic.  Almost winter time cold on that model.

[GHweatherChris]

Holy rain!

[Jesse]

I was expecting much worse.

 

[Deweydog]

That’s a pretty stretch of weather on the 00z. Sun, wind, temperatures...

[snow_wizard]

All in all I am stoked right now.  Considering all of the cold we have aready had this season and now some at least decent cold coming again.  This will be up there with the really cold Octobers of the past.  As I've said this firehose preceded by the heavy cold rain we had in WA over the weekend pretty much sets this aside from the cold Octobers that didn't work out for a good winter.

[TT-SEA]

You guys are a riot... you really want cold. I mean you REALLY want it.

 

Seemingly way more than I want sunny, summer days... and I enjoy the hell out of those.

[snow_wizard]

I was expecting much worse.

 

B6274511-9AC8-4AA8-A3D1-599EFD5296DC.png

 

Still a lot of great members.  The models are in a tizzy right now.  Lately the colder solutions have been the ones that verify.

[Requiem]

Let's not forget the great east winds forecasted by the GFS during that time. Gusty winds is an aspect that has been relatively consistent-- though this run really ramped things up a notch.

[Brennan]

Building the cabin for winter. Talk about making a childhood dream come true. 

This cabin is a 3 hour hike from civilization, and at 2400 feet we sat around 39*F all day on Saturday in the dripping rain. Thankfully we had rain gear!

 

The first two pics are from 2 weeks ago when we had some decent weather... the last one is  from this past Saturday. 

[TT-SEA]

Building the cabin for winter. Talk about making a childhood dream come true. 

 

This cabin is a 3 hour hike from civilization, and at 2400 feet we sat around 39*F all day on Saturday in the dripping rain. Thankfully we had rain gear!

 

A 3-hour hike?

 

Wow.  That takes some planning.

 

My son used to talk about doing that up on the ridge behind our house.