October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I'm still pretty happy with how this looks. Saturday looks like a puffy cloud / brisk north wind type of day and then we get the cold nights. Quite impressively the WRF is advertising a pretty decent inversion next week. Usually that model is pretty blind to that. At face value it's showing lows in the 30s (with some upper 20s) and highs upper 40s to low 50s. Not too shabby to pad the cold monthly averages. The bottom line is the surface pressure gradients looks favorable to maintain low level cold next week.

Even if they average temps in the 60/40 range the rest of the month (probably pretty conservative) PDX would be a lock for a top 10 cold October.

[snow_wizard]

As long as the long range always looks good I will always be happy.

 

I'm as happy as a clam right now...whatever that means.

 

No doubt things look interesting for early November and this weekend's clipper still looks nippy.  I imagine if something doesn't break up the current regime we will have snow next month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene has now dropped to 42 so far this evening 

[Jesse]

I'm as happy as a clam right now...whatever that means.

 

No doubt things look interesting for early November and this weekend's clipper still looks nippy. I imagine if something doesn't break up the current regime we will have snow next month.

I think that saying come from the fact that clams look like they have broad, smiley mouths.

[snow_wizard]

We have ourselves a very impressive 500mb anomaly composite for the month so far.  This is a far different look than the El Nino cold Octobers on record.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have ourselves a very impressive 500mb anomaly composite for the month so far.  This is a far different look than the El Nino cold Octobers on record.

 

 

Well shun!

[Jesse]

Well shun!

2004-05

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF bit colder

 

[Jesse]

Euro gets some pretty dang cold air east of the Cascades by hour 144.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF sticking to its guns on a pre-Halloween blizzard in the upper Midwest.   The snowiest October ever in Minneapolis was 8.2 inches in 1991 which fell on Halloween and was the first day of a 3-day blizzard.   The 2nd snowiest October was 5.5 inches 1905.    This has the possibility to be the snowiest October ever.    Normal snow for October there is 0.6 inches.

 

[snow_wizard]

My month to date average so far is 49.4 which is well below normal for the entire month of October in spite of the fact we still have the coldest part of the month to go through.  The only two Octobers that have averaged below 49.4 for the entire month this century are 2007 (49.0) and 2013 (47.4).  The 47.4 should be within reach.

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro gets some pretty dang cold air east of the Cascades by hour 144.

Cold, strong east winds + sunshine. Win, win win.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 43 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Euro gets some pretty dang cold air east of the Cascades by hour 144.

 

I think the big deal on that for us is going to be some very dry air seeping in.  After that happens the gradients go flat.  Could be some really cold nights with that.  If this all plays out just right we might get a decent cold snap with the help of an inversion.

[Jesse]

My month to date average so far is 49.4 which is well below normal for the entire month of October in spite of the fact we still have the coldest part of the month to go through. The only two Octobers that have averaged below 49.4 for the entire month this century are 2007 (49.0) and 2013 (47.4). The 47.4 should be within reach.

PDX averaged 53.5 for all of October 2013. They are currently at 53.2 for the month as of today, and that number will likely only go down over the next 8 days.

 

Easily on track for their coldest October of the century to date (2007 is the current coldest with 53.1).

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is pretty impressive with the retrogression about a week out.  High heights return to the GOA.

[snow_wizard]

PDX averaged 53.5 for all of October 2013. They are currently at 53.2 for the month as of today, and that number will likely only go down over the next 8 days.

 

Easily on track for their coldest October of the century to date (2007 is the current coldest with 53.1).

 

They should beat it.  This looks like a real cold / fake cold hybrid coming up.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe 2 beautiful weekends ahead... and a lovely Halloween in between.

 

Not bad.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF is pretty impressive with the retrogression about a week out.  High heights return to the GOA.

Yep. We're not too far from seeing a cold pattern develop.

 

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 45 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift!!

[snow_wizard]

I just looked up years that had solidly below normal monthly average temperatures for both October and November for SEA, and it turns out that combo is quite rare.  Since the 1950s it has only happened three times.

 

1961

1985

1996

 

All of those had some very decent events.  Obviously the cold November is yet to be seen, but the chances are good I think.

[BLI snowman]

PDX averaged 53.5 for all of October 2013. They are currently at 53.2 for the month as of today, and that number will likely only go down over the next 8 days.

 

Easily on track for their coldest October of the century to date (2007 is the current coldest with 53.1).

 

Coldest since 1971 feels like a decent bet.

[Guest Sounder]

Get your flu shots!

No need to tell anyone here that. Vaccines cause autism, and everyone on this board minus maybe Jesse and Flatiron is a textbook case of severe autism. So obviously most posters here have had their vaccines.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, probably nothing, but you know how often I will post model trends and I will talk about there is a notch difference in the pattern from run to run. Well I notice around HR 60-72 the past 4 runs of the GFS is trending to dig the arctic trough a notch or two each run a bit more towards Eastern Washington. Looks like 200 miles further west. I suppose of this trend were to continue the next 6-8 runs we may see a colder weekend into next week perhaps ending up with a scenario that some of the colder runs of the GEM/ECMWF.

 

Animated GIF https://imgur.com/8Dromwq

[TacomaWaWx]

06z looks like one of the better runs we’ve seen the past 2~ days since the gfs took the cold air into the central US. 06z showing cooler 850s with some cold air seeping into western WA/OR. Glad to see the models bring the cold air back west after all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Morning low of 42 here in Tacoma, currently 44 little foggy at my house at the moment.

[Jesse]

38 here this morning. Kind of a bonus sub-40 low. That brings me up to 10 month to date. Will likely add on several more next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem has a monthly mean of 51.1 through yesterday. That would rank 13th coldest in the 1892-present period of record. I'll crunch the numbers some more later, but they could end up as high as 4th coldest when all is said and done. 

[Omegaraptor]

Low of 36 at HIO. They’re reporting patchy fog but it’s sunny in Tigard/Beaverton.

[Jesse]

Some great trends on the last few GFS runs. Let’s see if we can keep up that momentum today.

 

Could end up being a pretty cold finish to the month.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some great trends on the last few GFS runs. Let’s see if we can keep up that momentum today.

 

Could end up being a pretty cold finish to the month.

looks like a good amount of places could have top 10 coldest Octobers. Coldest October since 1971 at PDX possibly? That’s 48 years ago.

[Jesse]

looks like a good amount of places could have top 10 coldest Octobers. Coldest October since 1971 at PDX possibly? That’s 48 years ago.

Definitely looking possible. If PDX manages to drop another 0.8F and ties or beats 1971’s average of 52.4F it will be a top 5 cold October for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem's warmest October was 2014, 59.5 monthly mean. 2nd warmest was 2015 59.0. They have not had a below average October since 2013. 

[Jesse]

Looks like EUG fell to 40 before midnight (1am) last night. Had a low of 37 this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely looking possible. If PDX manages to drop another 0.8F and ties or beats 1971’s average of 52.4F it will be a top 5 cold October for them.

Definitely did not think that was going to happen this year. This will be our 3rd continental air mass before November 1st. 9/28 10/8 and now 10/25 will be our 3rd clipper of the season. Hopefully this is just the beginning of a very active season.

[Jesse]

Definitely did not think that was going to happen this year. This will be our 3rd continental air mass before November 1st. 9/28 10/8 and now 10/25 will be our 3rd clipper of the season. Hopefully this is just the beginning of a very active season.

If so it would be their second top 5 cold month this year (February being the other). I can’t think of the last year they scored two top 5 cold months. 1985?

 

And indeed, it’s been impressive. I’m feeling fairly optimistic.

[Jesse]

I sort of forgot what a blowtorch May was this year. Tied with 2016 and 1997 as third warmest on record at PDX.

 

Of course, 2018 was even warmer, barely missing first place.

[Deweydog]

Traffic is f*cked this morning! Has to be a good sign.

[TT-SEA]

GFS has just been inching towards the very consistent ECMWF solution... its almost there on the 12Z run.

 

Needs to notch westward a little more for Sunday yet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I remember October 1991 very clearly!

 

Halloween blizzard in Minnesota.

 

 

 

That was just a few days after the Twins won the World Series... bad analog.

Wild, you were there during the blizzard?

[TT-SEA]

Wild, you were there during the blizzard?

Yes.