October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Now Day 4 difference arises the GEM digs the arctic trough back a few notches more than the EURO.

[snow_wizard]

00z ECMWF through Day 3 in lockstep with the absurdly cold GEM. So far.....

 

There are finally a few GFS ensembles beginning to acknowledge that second cold shot.  I absolutely love the GEM and the 12z ECMWF pattern progression after the cold shot.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like EURO is a tad bit west, actually. Nice that it is staying consistent!

It is a few notches west, just not quite as much as the GEM. Fairly close though.

 

12z NAM in 7 hours 27 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Full on censorship? No dissension or discussion of model details allowed? Come on Fred.

It looked like mockery towards myself when you said "Winter", but I don't care really. During October it would be amazing to have 850s that cold whether it's 1 day or 9 days. I would be historic and really neat to see that come to fruition.

[GHweatherChris]

Writing is on the wall.

[snow_wizard]

Now Day 4 difference arises the GEM digs the arctic trough back a few notches more than the EURO.

 

We have seen a few times the GEM wins these battles.  I will never forget Nov 2010.

[GHweatherChris]

11/20.

[Deweydog]

Proof’s in the pudding.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5 not as great of course as the insane GEM op(Outlier), but this isn't exactly warm either. Still time to trend colder.

 

[TT-SEA]

It looked like mockery towards myself when you said "Winter", but I don't care really. During October it would be amazing to have 850s that cold whether it's 1 day or 9 days. I would be historic and really neat to see that come to fruition.

It was sort of tongue-in-cheek. Normal ribbing we do all day all day long here. Like any group of people who are basically together every single day!

 

Certainly not personal.

[snow_wizard]

It looked like mockery towards myself when you said "Winter", but I don't care really. During October it would be amazing to have 850s that cold whether it's 1 day or 9 days. I would be historic and really neat to see that come to fruition.

 

Indeed.  This is only October and it's D**n fun to watch these wintry patterns emerging already.  It's not like this is make or break stuff right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

It was sort of tongue-in-cheek. Normal ribbing we do all day all day long here. Like any group of people who are basically together every single day!

 

Certainly not personal.

That's true. All good.

 

00z ECMWF in 23 hours 20 minutes

[snow_wizard]

00z ECMWF Day 5 not as great of course as the insane GEM op(Outlier), but this isn't exactly warm either. Still time to trend colder.

 

 

Chilly enough to produce some great low temps assuming the dew points tank which they probably will.

[TT-SEA]

That's true. All good.

 

00z ECMWF in 23 hours 20 minutes

Concerning the high temps next week... I think low 50s is actually a good bet.

[Jesse]

Indeed.  This is only October and it's d**n fun to watch these wintry patterns emerging already.  It's not like this is make or break stuff right now.

I’m loving it. Looking more and more likely PDX will score their coldest October in nearly 50 years, given the model trends today.. I’ve always wanted to experience an October like this, regardless of any possible ramifications for the upcoming winter.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears those poor suckers in CA are going to have their power cut on a number of days coming up.  They are going to have bone dry north winds there.  You can bet if the rich famous people lived in that area the power wouldn't be cut.

[Gradient Keeper]

Chilly enough to produce some great low temps assuming the dew points tank which they probably will.

Oh yeah without a doubt. Really chilly overnight temps, frosty pumpkins, sunshine. No complaints

 

00z GFS (Saturday) in 44 hours 55 minutes

[snow_wizard]

I’m loving it. Looking more and more likely PDX will score their coldest October in nearly 50 years, given the model trends today.. I’ve always wanted to experience an October like this, regardless of any possible ramifications for the upcoming winter.

 

To see an October with so many incarnations of cold is pretty amazing.  Besides all of the dry cold we've had the two major snow episodes in the mountains also.

[Requiem]

I’m loving it. Looking more and more likely PDX will score their coldest October in nearly 50 years, given the model trends today.. I’ve always wanted to experience an October like this, regardless of any possible ramifications for the upcoming winter.

 

So, I guess I'm not crazy when I say that I'm really excited for this upcoming cold snap. This has been a good two months, especially with that constant pattern appearing over and over.

[snow_wizard]

Oh yeah without a doubt. Really chilly overnight temps, frosty pumpkins, sunshine. No complaints

 

00z GFS (Saturday) in 44 hours 55 minutes

 

The surface high to our NW will be a dominating feature next week.  As a result the east wind should get off while we still have a cool and very dry air mass in place.  Could be some pretty wild low temps.

[TT-SEA]

Oh yeah without a doubt. Really chilly overnight temps, frosty pumpkins, sunshine. No complaints

 

00z GFS (Saturday) in 44 hours 55 minutes

Might be too breezy in your area and my area for frost on Monday and Tuesday night per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

But that will probably make it feel colder.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty neat little move how the block flattens and rotates back to the GOA in one fluid step.

[TT-SEA]

This is the type of 500mb height anomalies that I wanted to see 4th of July weekend... it finally comes on Halloween instead.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Might be too breezy in your area and my area for frost on Monday and Tuesday night per the 00Z ECMWF.

 

But that will probably make it feel colder.

My area for sure. Maybe Thursday night until gradients go flat in the Gorge.

[TT-SEA]

My area for sure. Maybe Thursday night until gradients go flat in the Gorge.

 

 

Yeah... usually windy in your area means at least some wind in my area as well.     

[Deweydog]

This is the type of 500mb height anomalies that I wanted to see 4th of July weekend... it finally comes on Halloween instead.

 

That would be considerably warmer than the “perfect” mid 70’s in early July...

[snow_wizard]

No doubt that setup shown on the Euro at day 8 has incredible potential to go somewhere good.  It just depend how those two areas of high pressure interact.

[Gradient Keeper]

No doubt that setup shown on the Euro at day 8 has incredible potential to go somewhere good.  It just depend how those two areas of high pressure interact.

I see the same thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

This will be the 4th is it now? cold trough/pattern since late September. Right?

[TT-SEA]

That would be considerably warmer than the “perfect” mid 70’s in early July...

 

Yes... really warm would be nice as well on a holiday weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Halloween looks perfect on the 00Z ECMWF surface maps. So does the weekend afterwards.

 

Going to be some crunchy leaves while trick-or-treating.

[ShawniganLake]

Halloween looks perfect on the 00Z ECMWF surface maps. So does the weekend afterwards.

 

Going to be some crunchy leaves while trick-or-treating.

I think you’re too old for trick or treating, Tim

[Gradient Keeper]

Halloween looks perfect on the 00Z ECMWF surface maps. So does the weekend afterwards.

 

Going to be some crunchy leaves while trick-or-treating.

I heard this year there are costumes of the Golden Girls. I'm thinking Betty White.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes

[TT-SEA]

I think you’re too old for trick or treating, Tim

I will be out there with my daughter and her friends. So will my wife. It's actually a huge event in North Bend. One of the large subdivisions goes all out with decorations and displays and people come from all over. Almost seems like you have to agree to participate if you buy a house there. It's a massive party with most people setting up in their driveway and/or garage. And some of them hand out jello shots to the parents. Its wall-to-wall people and really fun. We have done it every year 2004!

[ShawniganLake]

I will be out there with my daughter and her friends. So will my wife. It's actually a huge event in North Bend. One of the large subdivisions goes all out with decorations and displays and people come from all over. Almost seems like you have to agree to participate if you buy a house there. It's a massive party with most people setting up in their driveway and/or garage. And some of them hand out jello shots to the parents. Its wall-to-wall people and really fun. We have done it every year 2004!

Jell-O shots can be surprisingly efficient at getting you drunk.

 

Special weather statement for the BC lower mainland tomorrow. Winds possibly gusting to 50mph.

[ShawniganLake]

[Gradient Keeper]

70E3C2D5-098C-4E7C-ADE1-E50434EFD9EA.png

A most beautiful outlier

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F in Monmouth. Stars are beautiful. Love the winter constellations.

[Jesse]

Small step back on the 06z GFS and ensembles. Hopefully we can make up some of that ground today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Morning low of 45 in Tacoma. Ready for this clipper to deliver some cold frosty mornings and sunny chilly days.