October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

PSCZ will be something to watch today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like lots of unusual clear and sunny days for Portland in the forecast.

[TacomaWaWx]

Clipper is easily visible by satellite moving SE across central Vancouver island.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like lots of unusual clear and sunny days for Portland in the forecast.

It also happened last November and the December before last. All it takes is a blocking pattern. Doesn’t seem very unusual at all.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

So far not much more than a few sprinkles from the forecast fast-moving storm. Tomorrow looks to be a blustery, Fraser outflow sort of day.

[TacomaWaWx]

So far not much more than a few sprinkles from the forecast fast-moving storm. Tomorrow looks to be a blustery, Fraser outflow sort of day.

Rainfall associated with this system hasn’t really reached your area but even when it does it’ll probably be a tenth of an inch maybe 2. Most areas across the sound should see similar or lighter totals the farther south you go. Main impact should be a chilly breeze.

[TT-SEA]

This front is going to crank through here soon... its going to go from Vancouver Island now to entering western Montana by 5 p.m.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rainfall associated with this system hasn’t really reached your area but even when it does it’ll probably be a tenth of an inch maybe 2.

 

Looks like it's going to take another hour or two to get here based on what the Aldergrove radar is showing.

[ShawniganLake]

Very mild 54 here this morning. A bit of drizzle and a bit of a breeze but also some breaks in the clouds.

[Blizzard777]

46F in Monmouth. Stars are beautiful. Love the winter constellations.

That’s one thing that’s sucks about living here....would love to do some star gazing from my own backyard

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Favorite words of Winter

Retrogression

Arctic Front

Winter Storm Watch/Warning

Cold Pool

Pizza

Cold Pool is my favorite.

[Blizzard777]

Woke up to trees showering leaves into my yard.  Grandson ran around trying to catch them as they danced in the 10-15 mph south wind. A few helicopters fell as well....he was stoked!  
 

A warm 54* this morning and coffee taste great! You guys are getting me excited as we enter into next weeks chilly weather.

To put things in prospective.....we are on the threshold of Winter, anything can happen from today forward! 
Hoping we get into some very very active weather after this next brush with the chiller weather

I’m sitting at 49.5 for my average October temp so far

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEM says HELLO WINTER! WOW!

 

That's one heck of a cold air mass for October.

 

[Front Ranger]

It also happened last November and the December before last. All it takes is a blocking pattern. Doesn’t seem very unusual at all.

Yeah, wasn't there like a 2 week period of mostly sunny weather in December 2017?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It's here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

To put things in prospective.....we are on the threshold of Winter, anything can happen from today forward!

 

Two years ago on the 5th of November, I woke to a dusting of snow on the lawn. I was living at 100 feet elevation on an island surrounded by salt water at the time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We have seen a few times the GEM wins these battles. I will never forget Nov 2010.

If I recall, the GEM led the way and/or was the most consistent with the December 2008 events.

[Timmy Supercell]

This is pretty late in the year for smoke in southern Oregon, unless of course more people nearby are doing controlled burns. 

[ShawniganLake]

Skies are clearing and just 0.01” of rain with today’s front. October will end up as the 8th drier than normal month in 2019 at Shawnigan

[TacomaWaWx]

Two years ago on the 5th of November, I woke to a dusting of snow on the lawn. I was living at 100 feet elevation on an island surrounded by salt water at the time.

Yeah I remember that one 11/5/17 1/2” of snow fell here. Had a trace on 11/3/17 as well. Earliest I’ve ever seen snow here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Woke up to trees showering leaves into my yard. Grandson ran around trying to catch them as they danced in the 10-15 mph south wind. A few helicopters fell as well....he was stoked!

 

A warm 54* this morning and coffee taste great! You guys are getting me excited as we enter into next weeks chilly weather.

To put things in prospective.....we are on the threshold of Winter, anything can happen from today forward!

Hoping we get into some very very active weather after this next brush with the chiller weather

I’m sitting at 49.5 for my average October temp so far

up to 56 here now with the breezy southerlies kicking in was 45 this morning. Things might get a little active to the north today, watch the PSCZ maybe see another lightning show like last weekend. Should be some chilly frosty mornings coming up hopefully we get into some more active weather in November though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Halloween looks perfect on the 00Z ECMWF surface maps. So does the weekend afterwards.

 

Going to be some crunchy leaves while trick-or-treating.

Cool and crisp.

[ShawniganLake]

up to 56 here now with the breezy southerlies kicking in was 45 this morning. Things might get a little active to the north today, watch the PSCZ maybe see another lightning show like last weekend. Should be some chilly frosty mornings coming up hopefully we get into some more active weather in November though.

Maybe they are missing it but I’m not seeing much support for a strong PSCZ in this morning’s mesoscale models. Perhaps the flow is turning northerly too quickly for it to form?

[ShawniganLake]

Gem is slightly more east but still very cold. Model battle!

[TT-SEA]

Cool and crisp.

Could be a little warmer than normal though...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Maybe they are missing it but I’m not seeing much support for a strong PSCZ in this morning’s mesoscale models. Perhaps the flow is turning northerly too quickly for it to form?

Definitely a possibility. Wouldn’t be the first time it happened, if it does form it’ll be brief and then break apart as it moves towards sea-tac like usual. I think we will see a decent brief PSCZ here pretty shortly.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe they are missing it but I’m not seeing much support for a strong PSCZ in this morning’s mesoscale models. Perhaps the flow is turning northerly too quickly for it to form?

 

There will a c-zone but it will probably get ripped apart fairly quickly.

[ShawniganLake]

Vancouver and Abbotsford are both gusting close to 40mph this morning. Forecast calls for 55mph gusts along the water as the winds turn to the NW today.

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs floods western Canada with bitter arctic air during the second week of November.

[Deweydog]

Gfs floods western Canada with bitter arctic air during the second week of November.

THANKS for GIVING us an update.

[HighlandExperience]

Gfs floods western Canada with bitter arctic air during the second week of November.

I’d prefer it to hold off till end of November. When is the last time it snowed mid November in the lowlands?

[TT-SEA]

I’d prefer it to hold off till end of November. When is the last time it snowed mid November in the lowlands?

 

 

Good news for you then... its sending the cold air into the Midwest at the end of the run and bypassing us.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

THANKS for GIVING us an update.

You may have to GIVE your THANKS on Veterans Day.

[ShawniganLake]

I’d prefer it to hold off till end of November. When is the last time it snowed mid November in the lowlands?

96 comes to mind. Though I’m not sure how far south it penetrated. Northern areas had a lot. Historic stuff in the Fraser valley during the 3rd week of November.

[MossMan]

PSCZ will be something to watch today.

Wish it would slip south (I would never say that during a snow event) It is currently quite ugly out up here.

[Omegaraptor]

12z GEM is still impressively cold.

[MossMan]

96 comes to mind. Though I’m not sure how far south it penetrated. Northern areas had a lot. Historic stuff in the Fraser valley during the 3rd week of November.

I had just under a foot of snow with that one.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like lots of unusual clear and sunny days for Portland in the forecast.

Just need to add snow cover!

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF is the coldest run yet for out here. 700mb temps drop to -26C!

 

Going to be widespread below zero readings with this one.

[Blizzard777]

In Edmonds Wa currently and drizzle rain

South winds were strong up until entering Seattle area. North of Seattle winds calm