October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Here we go! C'MON!!!! COLDER RUNS AHEAD

 

 

All minus!  Sure cold when that happens.

[snow_wizard]

Nice ensemble improvement.

 

00z ECMWF in 21 minutes

 

I'll say!  This is insane!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

692FDCBB-B2D2-4C0A-A20F-AB101CE28197.png

 

Blah...

 

That image doesn't show the entire run.  It's actually good.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California.

[BLI snowman]

The WRF is way colder for Tuesday than previous runs.  It shows impressively cold easterly outflow winds.  Temps only in the low 40s for Portland in the afternoon.  This is based on the GFS which is a notch warmer than the GEM and ECMWF.  Models are unanimous that easterly gradients will give out fairly quickly once the cold air is in place.  Could be some crazy mins as next week progresses.

 

Definitely a shot at some teens in the coldest areas.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF Big changes. MUCH colder air into the Columbia Basin, Gorge with COLD, gusty east winds. We better adjust that 7 Day Forecast .

 

8 AM Tuesday. Brrrrrrr! This is late October and these maps scream December! WOW!

 

[BLI snowman]

Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California.

 

 

Move north.

[snow_wizard]

Your clipper will cause extreme fire danger in Northern California.

 

I've been noticing the inane northerly gradients being shown down there.  Probably downright dangerous given how insanely low the dew points will be.

[snow_wizard]

 

00z WRF Big changes. MUCH colder air into the Columbia Basin, Gorge with COLD, gusty east winds. We better adjust that 7 Day Forecast .

 

8 AM Tuesday. Brrrrrrr! This is late October and these maps scream December! WOW!

 

 

 

This looks potentially historic.  I'm speechless.

[ShawniganLake]

The GEM isn't backing down at all with the reload of cold air. Whoever isn't excited about what is going on here doesn't have a pulse. We are in a truly exceptional regime right now.

I’m interested. I’d be excited if it was happening about 3 weeks from now.

[Deweydog]

I’m interested. I’d be excited if it was happening about 3 weeks from now.

A parent of a very young child really should have a pulse.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS check out that 500mb pattern. This is close to being REALLY COLD and a REAL early taste of Winter in November.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Would be interesting to have cool spells two Novembers in a row (I set a few records in 2018). Though my first measurable snow was literally in the last hour of the month. We'll see if this one is different.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift Rob?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3 - A few notches further west trying to trend even colder.

 

Tonight's 00z

 

 

 

Last night's run

[Gradient Keeper]

Night shift Rob?

If I didn't have to get up at 5:30 AM for fishing, I would definitely. I do think some night shifts may be reasonable near/after Halloween! C'MON!!!!

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 15 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 yep a bit colder Gorge/east

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Even more glaring differences at Day 4

 

Tonight's run

 

 

Last night's run

[ShawniganLake]

A parent of a very young child really should have a pulse.

I think our 2 year old will be excited when she sees snow this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE impressive backdoor cold into the Columbia Basin!

 

[Deweydog]

I think our 2 year old will be excited when she sees snow this fall.

Ficksed.

[snow_wizard]

OMG!  The ECMWF is a fair bit colder on the 850s than previous runs. Bow to the GEM on this one.  This cold intrusion on Tesday is looking pretty serious for this early.

[Gradient Keeper]

OMG!  The ECMWF is a fair bit colder on the 850s than previous runs. Bow to the GEM on this one.  This cold intrusion on Tesday is looking pretty serious for this early.

Last minute model trend to colder it looks like to me.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The ECMWF is much weaker with easterly gradient here on Tuesday than previous runs as well.  Might be a chance of decoupling here Tuesday night when the really cold air is in place.  A truly remarkable thing with this run is everything is colder over the next 5 days at least.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

Last minute model trend to colder it looks like to me.

 

If the colder trend continues this might approach Oct 1935 territory.  That's pretty lofty but this looks pretty amazing.

[seattleweatherguy]

Holy crap! The ECMWF is much weaker with easterly gradient here on Tuesday than previous runs as well. Might be a chance of decoupling here Tuesday night when the really cold air is in place. A truly remarkable thing with this run is everything is colder over the next 5 days at least. Wow!

I’m excited About the cold now if we only had moisture at the perfect time we could get oct snow

[snow_wizard]

It appears I may end up with only 3 above normal days this month IMBY, and they were only small plusses.

[TT-SEA]

Halloween blizzard in the upper Midwest... almost all of this falls on Halloween day and evening.

 

[snow_wizard]

I’m excited About the cold now if we only had moisture at the perfect time we could get oct snow

 

This is really something.  To get three major cold snaps during different parts of the month in October is pretty much unheard of.  Looking like a good shot at a significant cold snap as we get toward the second week of Nov as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Halloween blizzard in the upper Midwest... almost all of this falls on Halloween day and evening.

 

That's awesome!

 

12z ECMWF in 11 hours 3 minutes

[MikeInEverett]

Nice to see the conversation zone is back in action!

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 38

[TacomaWaWx]

Excellent 06z run for regarding the next couple days. Really cold 850s and father west. Currently 38 out here this morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks to become quite frosty by Thursday in Portland. I guess earlier in the week may be too dry for frost.

[TT-SEA]

Excellent 06z run for regarding the next couple days. Really cold 850s and father west. Currently 38 out here this morning.

I think we are really only talking about Tuesday on this side of the mountains. That is the day when the cold 850mb temps swing through.

 

06Z run...

 

Monday:

 

 

 

 

Tuesday:

 

 

 

 

Wednesday:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I think we are really only talking about Tuesday on this side of the mountains. That is the day when the cold 850mb temps swing through.

 

06Z run...

 

Monday:

 

 

 

 

Tuesday:

 

 

 

 

Wednesday:

 

I just meant it was good for cold mornings and looked colder overall this side of the mountains. I Should have been more specific.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the 06Z run is basically dry for the next 16 days.   That goes out through November 11th.    That is pretty crazy for this time of year.

[TacomaWaWx]

Today is the 5th morning we have had in the 30s this month with the remaining 5 mornings also likely to be in the 30s. The previous record for number of mornings in the 30s here before this cold snap was 3.

[TT-SEA]

I just meant it was good for cold mornings and looked colder overall this side of the mountains. I Should have been more specific.

 

Definite shift west though.    But I was surprised yesterday when I looked at today through Monday... the air mass is not really as cold as I thought behind the clipper system yesterday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definite shift west though. I was surprised yesterday when I looked at today through Monday... the air mass is not really as cold as I thought behind the clipper system yesterday.

Yeah it’s not terribly cold out there in most spots in the mid 30s to low 40s. Looks like the next few nights are supposed to be slightly colder but not by much. Probably will end up seeing our coldest mornings early next week.